CITIC Futures: Shanghai Tin inventory continues to decline, tin prices are well supported

The tin supply issue has eased somewhat: Myanmar is accelerating the restart process of high-grade tin mines in low-altitude areas, and it is expected that Myanmar’s ore output will gradually increase in the future; according to the Indonesian Mining Association, the Indonesian Mineral and Coal Authority has set the 2026 tin production target at 65.86k tons, higher than the previous estimate of a 60k-ton quota, indicating a loosening of supply expectations; the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo remains severe, and supply risks remain high. Looking ahead, the supply-side issues for tin have eased compared to before, but the supply in main producing regions remains fragile. On the demand side, rapid development of AI has driven the semiconductor industry to maintain high growth, but this year global new photovoltaic installations may not grow, and the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales may slow down. However, traditional fields such as tin-plated sheets and tin chemicals remain relatively stable, and considering inventory rebuilding in the supply chain, demand for tin ingots is expected to continue growing. Overall, supply risks still exist, and combined with the resilience of downstream demand, tin prices are expected to have bottom support, but in the short term, prices are suppressed by weak macro sentiment and supply recovery expectations, maintaining volatile movements. (CITIC Futures)