#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Further Plunge! Bitcoin once again falls below $71,000, recovery faces a complete obstacle, Middle East situation sets the tone for 2026 trend

The crypto market once again enters a volatile period! As of now (April 13, 2026, 6:00 PM), Bitcoin (BTC) is quoted at $70,796.88, sharply retreating from the previous trading day, officially breaking below the critical $71,000 threshold, continuing the recent weakness trend.
Reviewing the 24-hour market, Bitcoin reached a high of $71,682.72 and a low of $70,505.88, with wide fluctuations exceeding $1,100, highlighting the current market's fragility. More concerning is that multiple analysts warn that Bitcoin's current recovery momentum is fragile, and the ongoing escalation of the Middle East situation will become the key variable shaping the 2026 crypto market trend.
Combining the latest industry news and institutional analysis, today we provide an in-depth understanding of Bitcoin's current predicament, the impact of Middle East developments, and future price movement forecasts, helping everyone clarify strategic positioning and avoid potential risks.

Market Highlights: Break below $71,000, increased 24H volatility, exhausted recovery momentum
After a brief rebound to the $72k range, Bitcoin once again fell into a correction. The recent break below $71,000 marks the official halt of the short-term recovery trend.
From the 24-hour performance, BTC shows a "rise and fall, weakening volatility" pattern, with a high of $71,682.72 failing to stabilize, then quickly dropping to $70,505.88. Although there was a slight rebound, it never regained above $71,000, closing at $70,796.88, clearly indicating a short-term bearish pattern.
This sudden halt of the rebound is not accidental.
According to the latest data from Glassnode, after Bitcoin rebounded into the $70k range, momentum was exhausted due to profit-taking exceeding $20 million per hour. Liquidity above $70k to $80k is thin and faces heavy selling pressure, forming a "resistance wall" difficult to break in the short term. More critically, this rebound lacked solid support, hiding deep underlying concerns.
Core concern: fragile recovery signals, three warning signs of a correction risk
Currently, Bitcoin's recovery is labeled by many analysts as a "false rebound," lacking fundamental support. Instead, three clear signals indicate increasing correction risks and market vulnerability.

1. Rebound driven by futures leverage, lacking spot buying support
According to CryptoQuant analyst oro_crypto, Bitcoin's recent rebound from $66k to $72k was entirely led by futures leverage, with no effective spot buying support—an "source-less, foundationless" move.
The market has officially confirmed a bear market break and entered a correction phase. Prices are likely to retrace to the starting point of this rally, i.e., the $66k to $68k range.
More importantly, if prices fall below this critical zone, Bitcoin could further drop to the strong support levels of $60k to $63k, potentially triggering chain reactions of liquidations and causing sharp price dives, aligning with CryptoQuant's previous medium-term downside risk forecast.

2. Profit-taking pressure plus liquidity shortage, upward momentum weak
Besides the lack of spot support, profit-taking pressure is another major factor suppressing Bitcoin's rebound. As Bitcoin rose above $70k, leveraged positions entered profit-taking phases.
Glassnode data shows that during the rebound, profit-taking exceeded $20 million per hour, depleting upward momentum. Meanwhile, market liquidity remains tight, with liquidity above $70k to $80k sparse, making small sell-offs capable of causing large price swings.
Based on Sina Finance's March analysis, Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase between support and resistance, with mixed technical signals and insufficient short-term momentum, making aggressive buying risky.

3. Incomplete price structure, still need downward correction
Senior trader Peter Brandt issued a recent forecast stating that Bitcoin's current price structure is incomplete, and the market still needs a downward shakeout.
He predicts prices need to break below $66k to clear out long-side liquidity. Only then can Bitcoin form a valid rally and possibly break through the $75k mark.
Peter Brandt further notes that in 2026, Bitcoin will mainly oscillate and accumulate, with a new all-time high likely delayed until 2027. He advises long-term holders to watch the $60k–$64,000 zone, which may become a key support to retest February lows and form a local bottom, consistent with his historical cycle analysis of "downward risks."
Key variable: Middle East situation dominates 2026 trend, three conditions determine whether BTC can hit $90k
If futures leverage and profit-taking are the immediate causes of short-term correction, then the ongoing escalation of the Middle East situation is the core variable influencing Bitcoin's 2026 trend.
Multiple analysts agree that geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures stemming from Middle East conflicts will persist through Q2 2026 and possibly influence the entire year.
Geopolitical risks intensify, BTC as a risk asset faces resistance
According to Wu Blockchain, QCP Capital analysis points out that the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations has pushed oil prices back to $100, and global risk assets are broadly retreating. Bitcoin has thus been held back below $74k, unable to break higher.
Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) has fallen from $2,330 to about $2,180, with the overall crypto market under pressure.
Since February 2026, multiple rounds of US-Iran nuclear negotiations have taken place, but disagreements remain, and the risk of negotiations breaking down is high. The US military has deployed two aircraft carriers in the Middle East, keeping regional tensions high.
As a result, crude oil prices have surged nearly 70% since the conflict, fluctuating around $100. Under the influence of escalating conflicts and rising commodities, Bitcoin, as a risk asset, struggles to act as a safe haven and instead follows risk assets downward.
Despite rising geopolitical risks, implied volatility and skewness in options have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, indicating market hedging sentiment is cooling. This suggests the market is digesting geopolitical risks faster but remains vulnerable to further escalation.

2026 trend outlook: Middle East + three conditions determine if BTC can break $90k
Coin Bureau founder and crypto analyst Nic Puckrin states that the Middle East situation will dominate Bitcoin's Q2 2026 trend, with the earliest rate cuts expected in Q3 or Q4. This implies that the first half of 2026 will continue to face macroeconomic pressures.
He further states that for Bitcoin to reach $90k, three core conditions must be met simultaneously:
- Geopolitical tensions easing, US-Iran and other Middle Eastern countries reaching a phased consensus, regional conflicts cooling;
- Oil prices falling back to around $80, easing global inflation and providing room for macro policy easing;
- Global economic data softening, central banks starting rate cut cycles, and liquidity easing boosting crypto assets.
Currently, none of these conditions are met: US-Iran disagreements remain significant, regional conflicts could escalate; oil stays high at $100, inflation pressures persist; global central banks delay rate cuts, and liquidity remains tight.
This makes it highly unlikely for Bitcoin to hit $90k in 2026, and it will probably continue the "oscillating accumulation" predicted by Peter Brandt.

The only support: ETF capital inflows, can they reverse BTC's decline?
Amid widespread market pessimism and increasing correction risks, continuous net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have become the market's only support and a glimmer of optimism.
According to CoinJia, IBIT saw about $612 million net inflow last week, and BIT tweeted that Bitcoin ETF fund flows have recently turned positive again, with expectations of a second consecutive month of net inflows, indicating a marginal improvement in market sentiment.
Interestingly, the current ETF inflow trend resembles that of early 2025—initial slow inflows, followed by a concentrated $30 billion influx, which helped Bitcoin rally over subsequent months.
Analysts believe that recent ETF inflows suggest the market has gradually digested previous selling pressure, with net inflows resuming since March, providing some support for future gains.
However, note that current ETF inflows are mainly from large institutions, with retail participation low. The sustainability of this support remains uncertain, and it cannot alone reverse Bitcoin's current weakness or offset the downward pressure from Middle East risks.

Future price movement forecast (for reference only, not investment advice)
Based on current market conditions, institutional analysis, and geopolitical developments, we forecast Bitcoin's future trend from short, medium, and long-term perspectives, balancing opportunities and risks:

1. Short-term (1-2 weeks): Likely correction to $66k–$68k, watch for chain liquidations
After breaking below $71,000, the bearish pattern is confirmed. Coupled with the withdrawal of futures leverage and ongoing profit-taking, prices are likely to retrace to the starting point of this rally, i.e., $66k–$68k.
If prices fall below this zone, further decline to strong support levels of $60k–$63k could occur, potentially triggering chain liquidations and causing sharp drops over 10%.
While ETF support provides some buffer, it is unlikely to reverse the short-term downtrend. Resistance remains heavy between $70k and $74k, making rebounds difficult, and volatility will dominate.

2. Medium-term (1-3 months): Consolidation driven by Middle East situation
Bitcoin is expected to mainly oscillate and consolidate, with the trend heavily influenced by developments in the Middle East.
If US-Iran negotiations succeed, tensions ease, oil prices fall, and ETF inflows continue, Bitcoin could stabilize between $66k and $75,000, gradually repairing its trend.
Conversely, if Middle East tensions escalate, oil prices stay high, macro pressures increase, Bitcoin could break below $60,000 support, further dropping toward $55,000–$56k, aligning with CryptoQuant's medium-term bearish forecast.
Peter Brandt also suggests that the market will need to undergo downward shakeouts, with prices gradually stabilizing, and a clear upward trend unlikely in the near term.

3. Long-term (over 6 months): 2026 consolidation, new highs delayed to 2027
In the long run, Bitcoin in 2026 will mainly remain in a consolidation and accumulation phase, with a new all-time high likely postponed until 2027.
The main reasons are: persistent geopolitical uncertainty, delayed macro policy easing, and the need for price structure to mature through shakeouts and liquidity clearing.
Long-term holders should focus on the $60,000–$64,000 zone, which may become a local bottom. If prices hold, a gradual rally could follow; if broken, further declines toward $25k are possible, consistent with Peter Brandt's historical cycle analysis warning of downside risks.

Risk warnings (must read!)
Correction risk: Bitcoin has confirmed a bear market break, with a high probability of short-term correction to $66,000–$68k. Falling below key support could trigger chain liquidations and sharp price drops—avoid blindly chasing bottoms.
Geopolitical risk: Middle East tensions will dominate 2026, with US-Iran conflicts and regional clashes possibly causing oil prices to surge and risk assets to retreat, further suppressing Bitcoin.
Leverage risk: Recent rebounds driven by futures leverage mean that deleveraging could cause sharp volatility. Investors should avoid excessive leverage and control positions carefully.
Forecast deviation risk: Uncertainties in ETF inflows and geopolitical developments could weaken support or escalate conflicts, leading to unexpected price movements.
Liquidity risk: Liquidity above $70k–$80k is thin, with large bid-ask spreads and difficulty closing positions, requiring cautious trading.

Summary: Fragile recovery, cautious observation, wait for clear signals
Bitcoin's recent fall below $71,000 not only marks the end of a short-term recovery but also highlights market fragility—futures leverage, profit-taking, incomplete price structure, and three major concerns combine to prevent sustained upward movement.
The ongoing escalation of the Middle East situation further clouds the 2026 outlook, becoming the key variable for the year's trend.
For ordinary investors, the most rational approach now is "cautious observation and strict position control." Do not blindly chase highs or bottoms:
- Short-term: Focus on the $66,000–$68k support zone; if broken, further risk mitigation.
- Medium-term: Watch Middle East developments and ETF flows for signs of stabilization.
- Long-term: Consider low-buying opportunities around $60,000–$64,000, but prepare for prolonged volatility.
In a geopolitical and macro environment still under pressure, preserving capital is essential to seize potential opportunities once the market stabilizes.
Do you think Bitcoin will retrace to $66,000 in the short term? Will Middle East tensions continue to suppress BTC? Feel free to share your views in the comments!