Polymarket "The Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before May 31" probability is only 37%, down 9% in 24 hours

CryptoWorld News, Odaily Seer monitoring channel reports that the probability for Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before May 31” is only 37%, down 9% over the past 24 hours. The event contract rule is: if the International Monetary Fund Portwatch (IMF Portwatch) releases, on any date between the market’s creation and May 31, 2026, the 7-day moving average of the number of transit ships arriving at port (“ships arriving”) through the Strait of Hormuz is equal to or greater than 60, then the market will be judged as “Yes”; otherwise, the market will be judged as “No”. The daily number of ships arriving includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers; ships not reported by the IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the U.S. military announced that it will begin imposing a blockade in the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz and in the Arabian Sea in the Gulf of Oman; any ships that enter or leave the blockade area without authorization may be intercepted, diverted, and seized. In addition, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he supports Trump’s decision to impose a maritime blockade on Iran, adding that his government is fully coordinated with Washington on this matter. In a video statement released by the Prime Minister’s Office, Netanyahu said at the cabinet meeting: “Iran violated the rules, and President Trump has decided to implement a maritime blockade.” “Of course, we support this firm position, and we are maintaining ongoing coordination with the United States.” Odaily Seer monitoring channel continues to follow prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.