Analysis | Trump's White House speech failed to save the market; withdrawing from the Middle East isn't that easy

Decisive victory, fierce fighting, oil grabbing… On the evening of April 1st, Eastern Time, at 9 p.m., U.S. President Trump delivered a speech at the White House lasting about 20 minutes.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump spoke at the White House, claiming himself that the U.S. has achieved a “rapid, decisive, overwhelming victory” in the Iran conflict. Trump said that the Iran war is expected to complete all military objectives “in a very short period of time.” “In the next two to three weeks, we will strike them very hard… Meanwhile, negotiations are also ongoing.”

In his speech, Trump claimed that the U.S. almost does not need to import oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and those countries that need to obtain oil via the Strait of Hormuz must “take responsibility for maintaining this passage.”

Previously, Trump had frequently signaled that the U.S. might unilaterally withdraw from the Iran war: not overthrowing the Iranian regime, not opening the Strait of Hormuz, and not reaching an agreement with Iran to prevent attacks on the U.S. and its allies.

Jin Liangxiang, director of the Middle East Research Center at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that Trump’s speech typifies his personal style, expressing more the U.S. desire to withdraw from Middle East conflicts, but the development of the battlefield situation may not end according to Trump’s rhythm.

On April 1, 2026, local time, in Washington, D.C., U.S. President Trump walks from the Blue Room to the Cross Hall at the White House to deliver a speech on Iran-related issues. Visual China Photo

Tehran “Prepared for at least six more months of fighting”

Trump stated that the U.S. core strategic goal in the Iran conflict is “close to completion.” He said, “The Iranian Navy has been completely destroyed, and their Air Force and missile programs have also been heavily damaged.”

So far, the U.S. and Israel have achieved tactical military results against Iran, striking over 12,300 targets, sinking more than 155 ships, and assassinating several senior officials including former Supreme Leader Khamenei. But from a strategic perspective, Iran has strengthened control over the Strait of Hormuz and made its already hardline regime more determined to oppose the U.S.

Ali Al-Fonai, Iran expert at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told The Paper that Trump has not confirmed the claim that Iran poses an imminent threat to the U.S., and has used it as a reason to start a war. The declared objectives keep changing, and no clear exit strategy has been clarified.

“This kind of ad hoc approach, often influenced by intuition and advisors, leads to increasing public fatigue with the conflict and concerns that the Middle East may fall into another prolonged war. Therefore, it is not surprising if Trump suddenly declares victory, withdraws U.S. troops, and leaves the mess to others,” Al-Fonai analyzed.

Jin Liangxiang said that it is easier said than done for the U.S. to withdraw from the war. “Trump was deceived and dragged into this war by Prime Minister Netanyahu, and Netanyahu may continue to push Trump into further conflict. Moreover, although Iran has suffered heavy blows, it is unlikely to end the war easily.”

Iran claims that the end of the war will be decided by Iran itself. Until the U.S. agrees to Iran’s demands, Iran will not stop fighting. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on March 31 that Tehran rejects the “ultimatum” and is prepared for “at least six more months of fighting.”

About half an hour after Trump’s speech, the Israeli Defense Forces issued a statement on the 2nd saying they detected missile launches from Iran toward Israel, and the air defense system was intercepting.

“Escalation of the conflict is also quite possible. After multiple rounds of bombing, there are indeed fewer military targets of value left in Iran. If Trump decides to bomb Iran’s civilian facilities, it could cause very dangerous consequences, and Iran is unlikely to surrender because of that. Under a decentralized defense system, Iran still has the capacity to continue resisting. Plus, Iran’s land area exceeds 1.64 million square kilometers, and although the people are currently living in difficult conditions, they still have room to maneuver,” Jin Liangxiang believes.

Some experts believe that Iran’s current pursuit of nuclear weapons is greater than before the war. Previously, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued an order prohibiting nuclear weapons development, but now hardliners within Iran are demanding to weaponize the nuclear program.

Jin Liangxiang also pointed out that from the perspective of U.S. investments in the Middle East, “if Trump chooses to withdraw at this time, it will be difficult to secure the high investments promised by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.”

“Oil prices paid at gas stations are determined by the global market”

In his speech, Trump urged other countries either to “buy oil from the U.S.” or to muster the courage to “grab oil” at the Strait of Hormuz. He said that when the Iran conflict ends, the strait “will naturally reopen.”

According to an informed source, Trump recently asked Vice President Pence to convey a message to Iran: as long as Iran meets conditions including fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. is willing to cease fire. Pence also said that Trump’s patience may be running out.

If the Strait of Hormuz reopens fully soon, experts estimate that oil and natural gas prices may take weeks or months to return to pre-war levels.

CNN reported that Iran, during wartime, broke two taboos with its Gulf Arab neighbors: directly attacking neighboring territories for the first time and blockading the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off these countries’ oil transportation channels. In the view of Gulf states, if the war ends hastily without an agreement, they may face attacks again in the coming years.

CNN pointed out that although Trump believes that since the U.S. imports relatively little energy from the Middle East, the oil prices Americans pay at the pump are determined by the global market and are unrelated to the source of fuel. If not resolved, it will still push up U.S. oil prices.

Jin Liangxiang believes that Trump’s remarks on the Strait of Hormuz are more based on U.S. energy interests. The Strait involves supply chain security issues, and a blockade has broad impacts. If the U.S. chooses to stay out, various parties may pressure Trump to restore passage through the strait.

“This kind of statement also contains an angry tone. After all, Trump has previously called on NATO allies to participate in the war, but allies like the UK, France, and Germany have made it clear they will not join. The U.S. is a major energy producer and, in a sense, does not rely on Middle Eastern oil. However, this does not mean the U.S. is not dependent on the Middle East in other ways. Its interests in the Gulf region far surpass those of any other economy. Therefore, the possibility of the U.S. completely withdrawing from the Strait of Hormuz is low. If Trump really does that, it would be equivalent to the U.S. withdrawing from the Middle East,” Jin Liangxiang said.

Oil prices rise, stock markets fall

Trump’s speech, aimed at clarifying the victory and timeline of the war, was heavily criticized by the political circles. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said Trump’s speech failed to clearly articulate the goals of military action against Iran, alienated allies, and ignored the daily issues faced by the American people.

Schumer wrote on social media: “Is there a more rambling, illogical, and extremely sad presidential war speech than this? Donald Trump’s actions in Iran will be regarded as one of the most serious policy failures in U.S. history.”

John Vital, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management in Switzerland, said the market did not get the certainty or clear information about the war timeline that it hoped for from Trump’s speech. “There may be further U.S. actions in the next two to three weeks, including the possibility of deploying ground troops. The speech also repeatedly emphasized threats to attack infrastructure, which will cause the market to shift back to a defensive stance, especially with a long weekend approaching.”

Previously, analysts and investors focused on when and how the Strait of Hormuz, a major fuel transportation route, would reopen to ease the severe economic blow to Asian economies.

After Trump’s speech failed to ease concerns about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged. According to Xinhua, June-delivered Brent crude futures rose by over 4% during the trading session on the 2nd, reaching $105.7 per barrel.

In the morning trading session on the 2nd, Asian stock markets showed a downward trend influenced by Trump’s speech. The stock markets of Japan and South Korea, both dependent on oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, continued to decline, with South Korea’s KOSPI dropping nearly 3% in the morning, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling more than 1%.

There are about six months left before the U.S. midterm elections. Polls show Trump’s approval rating has fallen below the lowest since his second term, with the average support rate dropping below 40% for the first time. A Pew Research Center survey indicates that over 60% of Americans oppose Trump’s handling of the conflict.

Trump’s supporters are also affected. According to a poll conducted by YouGov and The Economist from March 27 to 30, among voters who will vote for Trump in 2024, his support rate has dropped from 93% at the start of his term to 76%.

By Huang Yuehan, The Paper