BofA Survey Shows Investor Worry Over Capex Race at Record High

Rose Henderson

Tue, February 17, 2026 at 8:44 PM GMT+9 2 min read

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(Bloomberg) – A record number of investors say companies are spending far too much, according to Bank of America Corp.’s latest fund manager survey.

While investors participating in the survey are the most bullish they’ve been since June 2021, about 35% warned that corporations are overinvesting, the highest proportion seen in data going back two decades, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note. They’re also cutting their exposure to tech stocks.

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Record levels of capital expenditure are expected this year, with the four biggest US technology companies together forecasting spending of about $650 billion in 2026. Market reaction to these projections has been mixed. Microsoft Corp. plunged the most in almost six years on concerns about how long it might take for investments to pay off, while Meta Platforms Inc. jumped more than 11% after it revealed its ambitious AI spending plans.

A quarter of participants in the latest BofA survey saw an “AI bubble” as the top tail risk to markets, while 30% said capital expenditure on AI by the big tech companies was the most likely source of a credit crisis.

Source: Bank of America

Participants see capital expenditure as “too hot right now,” Hartnett said, even though they also have the most upbeat view on global corporate earnings since August 2021.

Meanwhile, investors are rotating out of technology stocks and the US dollar, and increasing allocations to energy, materials and consumer staples, Hartnett wrote in the note. The drop in exposure to technology is the largest since March 2025, with respondents only net 5% overweight on the sector, down from net 19% a month ago.

Rotation out of US stocks and into emerging and European markets is the highest it has been since February 2021.

Elsewhere, recent small cap outperformance underscores the market rotation away from technology heavyweights. Survey participants are the most overweight small caps over large since April 2021.

The BofA Global survey was conducted between Feb. 6 and Feb. 12, and canvassed 162 participants with $440 billion in assets.

–With assistance from Michael Msika.

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