$BTC

Tonight at 10 PM Beijing time, it is not the implementation of Trump's new interception order, but the expiration of the two-week temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran (ceasefire in Eastern US at 4/7 → expires around 4/23 Beijing time, market is betting tonight at 10 PM in advance)
1. Direct bullish logic for Bitcoin (very strong)
1. Iran’s urgent need for BTC settlement of oil
Iran charges $1 per barrel of Bitcoin transit fee for the Hormuz oil tankers, bypassing SWIFT dollar sanctions, real demand for global oil trade BTC landing, long-term underlying demand surging
2. US dollar credit damage, de-dollarization benefits BTC
US-Iran confrontation, oil trade abandoning the dollar, BTC’s decentralized cross-border payment value recognized by global funds
3. Geopolitical safe-haven funds flowing in
Conflict intensifies again → funds buy BTC to hedge against US dollar depreciation and geopolitical black swan, historically during Middle East crises BTC often acts as a safe-haven
2. Short-term bearish logic (volatility suppression)
1. War starts → oil prices surge → US inflation rebounds → Fed delays rate cuts
Rising rate hike expectations suppress risk asset valuations in crypto, historically BTC often first crashes then recovers during initial war phases
2. Panic liquidity squeeze + contract liquidations
Sudden war causes funds to sell BTC for cash, high leverage long positions collectively liquidated, short-term sharp plunge
3. Tonight’s simplified trend forecast
• Ceasefire continues, no war: bullish rally (geopolitical easing + oil BTC demand landing)
• Trump initiates interception, military conflict: initial sharp decline negative → quick rebound positive (war premium + BTC oil settlement logic)
• Stalemate ambiguous: high-level turbulence, both longs and shorts killed
One sentence summary
Long-term absolute bullish for BTC (oil dollar replacement demand); tonight short-term first watch war panic negative, after landing, geopolitical bull market positive