April 13, 2026

The recent market decline is directly related to the breakdown of US-Iran peace talks. Trump even issued harsh words, preparing to use force to take control of the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran is a highland country with many religious figures. Honestly, if they really wanted to conquer by force, it would be extremely difficult. I think Trump is just all talk. However, the complex international situation has put enormous pressure on the prices of many financial assets. Objectively speaking, if a bigger black swan event occurs, all risk assets will fall. Excluding the impact of black swan risks, I think there’s no big problem; after all, the crypto market has been falling for so long.
The surge in altcoin prices I mentioned yesterday is mainly because many altcoins were pumping yesterday. Several coins doubled in a single day. Such a situation is rarely seen outside of a bull market. Recently, this kind of market trend, in my view, is because the main players in altcoins have been in a long-term downtrend, accumulating and controlling positions to a certain extent before daring to be so aggressive. These altcoin whales and manipulators must use derivatives market counterparties to carry out their harvest. So, my best advice is: don’t trade derivatives. The second best advice is: don’t touch altcoins, even spot trading. Even if the price skyrockets, don’t buy impulsively, or you might get caught and be liquidated.
Recently, the overall market remains volatile. In my opinion, unless the current macro environment improves—on one hand, the shadow of war looms, possibly leading to larger-scale conflicts; on the other hand, the US stock market could crash at any time—crypto should have already experienced a significant move.