CITIC Futures: Supply pressure is relatively high, and alumina prices are under downward pressure.

Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies market fluctuations, with unresolved Middle Eastern geopolitical issues causing widespread swings in risk assets following market news. From a fundamental perspective, alumina operating capacity remains relatively stable, with the supply and demand balance upstream and downstream significantly improved compared to the beginning of the year, but still slightly oversupplied. Warehouse receipt levels continue to rise, and the spot-futures basis has narrowed considerably. Ongoing disruptions in aluminum smelting caused by Middle Eastern issues have put real demand for alumina under pressure, but rising shipping costs and raw material prices also support cost expectations. Recent rapid price corrections in the market have significantly compressed premiums, with absolute prices approaching spot levels. The large capacity releases in Guangxi in the second quarter and the expiration of warehouse receipts have exerted considerable downward pressure on prices. If there are no further policy disturbances in Guinea, prices are expected to remain relatively pressured. (CITIC Futures)