XRP sentiment drops to the third most pessimistic level in two years: Is the historical contrarian signal repeating?

XRP community sentiment once again reaches an extreme. According to the latest weekly data from crypto analytics firm Santiment, the ratio of bullish to bearish comments around XRP has fallen to 1.02:1.00, a level that has only appeared three times in the past two years. Meanwhile, XRP’s price has declined approximately 63% over the past nine months, falling from the July 2025 high of $3.65 to around $1.32 currently. Extreme sentiment typically indicates that the market is approaching a critical point. The question is: how is this time different from the previous two instances? What macro and structural variables are influencing the panic behind this?

XRP Sentiment Ratio Drops to 1.02, Marking the Third Most Pessimistic Record in Two Years

On April 13, 2026, Santiment posted a set of weekly sentiment data for the XRP community on social media. The data shows that this week, the ratio of positive to negative mentions of XRP on social media has fallen to 1.02:1.00, meaning for every 1.02 bullish comments, there is 1 bearish comment. According to Santiment’s sentiment classification model, this ratio has entered the “Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt” zone.

Santiment’s monitoring system covers millions of social media posts daily, automatically labeling comments for bullish or bearish tendencies using natural language processing technology. The 1.02 reading has only occurred twice in the past two years, specifically in February 2025 (0.96:1.00) and October 2025 (1.01:1.00), making this the third time this threshold has been triggered.

Reviewing Key Time Points from the All-Time High to Now

Below is a timeline of key events related to XRP’s market sentiment since July 2025:

From the July 2025 high to now, XRP’s price has fallen about 63%. During this decline, Ripple has continued to make positive progress in legal and regulatory areas, including the resolution of the SEC lawsuit and the recognition of XRP as a digital commodity. However, the price trend has diverged significantly from the fundamentals, which has become a major source of current market pessimism.

The Continuous 60-Day Extreme of the Panic Index and Historical Sentiment Positioning

Sentiment Data: Two Extreme Zones Formed

Santiment’s sentiment ratio is not an isolated indicator. The current wave of pessimism is compounded by another macro market sentiment indicator—the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index. As of April 13, this index has remained in the “Extreme Fear” zone (reading below 20) for over 60 consecutive days, setting the longest duration of extreme fear since the index’s inception.

In the past two years, XRP’s sentiment ratio has only reached this pessimistic level three times. The specific data for the previous two instances are:

• February 2025: Sentiment ratio 0.96, market in extreme fear, followed by a significant rebound in XRP, which Santiment described as “BIG” in subsequent analysis;
• October 2025: Sentiment ratio 1.01, also followed by a phase price recovery.

Notably, in both previous cases of extreme pessimism, the market subsequently experienced a reversal. Santiment states: “When such a degree of bearish comments replaces bullish ones, the probability of a relief rally increases significantly. Prices often move in the opposite direction of public expectations.”

It’s important to emphasize that Santiment’s sentiment data reflect retail investor sentiment on social media, not institutional positions. One of the core drivers of the previous rebounds was the contrarian entry of institutional funds after retail pessimism was cleared.

Price and Market Cap Data

Based on Gate.io data, as of April 13, 2026:

• XRP Price: $1.32
• 24-hour trading volume: $20,180,000
• Market cap: $81,480,000,000
• 24-hour price change: -0.23%

Looking at a longer timeframe, XRP’s price has decreased by 4.81% over the past 30 days and by 38.56% over the past year.

The current price of $1.32 is about 64% below the July 2025 high of $3.65. This retracement itself forms part of the logic for some market participants to consider the asset “oversold.”

Contradictory Signals: Macro Suppression vs. Reversal Indicators

Regarding current XRP sentiment data, three main viewpoints exist in the market:

Reverse Signal Theory (Santiment and some technical analysts)

Extreme pessimism on social media is itself a contrarian signal. When retail investors are overwhelmingly bearish, it often indicates that selling pressure has approached a phase exhaustion, increasing the likelihood of a rebound. Historical data confirms this pattern in the previous two instances.

Macro Suppression Theory (some fundamental analysts)

This wave of pessimism differs fundamentally from past cases. Previously, sentiment bottomed out when macroeconomic conditions were relatively stable. Currently, the market faces multiple headwinds, including escalating geopolitical conflicts, tightening Federal Reserve policies, and shrinking global liquidity. Sentiment data may merely be a “projection” of macro anxiety rather than an independent reversal signal.

ETF Watchdog Perspective (Institutional View)

Funds flowing into XRP ETFs have yet to provide clear confidence signals. Last week, XRP ETF saw a net inflow of about $11.75 million, significantly behind Ethereum and SOL ETFs. However, on April 10, XRP ETF recorded its largest single-day inflow since February 6, exceeding $9 million, which warrants ongoing observation.

Each of these viewpoints is supported by different data—historical patterns, macro cycle assessments, and fund flow data. Currently, the market has not reached a consensus on which factor dominates.

Structural Disparity Between Regulatory Progress and On-Chain Quietness

Impact on XRP Ecosystem

The current sentiment state has multiple dimensions of influence on the XRP ecosystem:

Short-term Trading: Extreme pessimism objectively reduces the probability of a sharp decline in the short term. A large amount of bearish sentiment suggests that many potential sellers have already been exhausted during the price decline. From a market game theory perspective, when “everyone knows bearish,” the marginal gains from shorting diminish.

On-Chain Activity: XRP’s on-chain activity remains subdued, with active addresses around 16,000, indicating a general decline in retail participation. This state aligns with the sentiment data and also suggests a lack of new buying interest to support a trend reversal.

Ecosystem Progress: Contrasting the pessimism, Ripple’s institutional initiatives continue to advance. The OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) national trust bank charter officially took effect on April 1, 2026, granting Ripple conditional nationwide trust banking license, making it the first crypto-native company with such a qualification. Additionally, in March 2026, the SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity, clearing a fundamental regulatory hurdle for trading on US exchanges.

Implications for Crypto Market Sentiment Structure

The case of XRP’s sentiment reaching an extreme pessimistic zone offers a valuable example for understanding how crypto market sentiment propagates.

Extreme sentiment often occurs under the combination of: deep price retracement + selective neglect of improving fundamental information + excessive pricing of macro risk premiums. When these three conditions are met simultaneously, the probability of sentiment extremes serving as forward-looking indicators increases.

However, it’s crucial to distinguish that sentiment data reflect “what market participants are saying,” not “what they are doing.” Divergence between the two contains informational gaps. Historically, signals with real predictive value tend to appear when sentiment data and position data diverge directionally.

Three Possible Scenarios: Logical Foundations and Trigger Conditions

Based on current sentiment data, price structure, and macro environment, here are three potential future scenarios for XRP, ordered by logical inference rather than probability:

Scenario 1: Short-term Relief Rally

If macro conditions do not deteriorate further, the overly pessimistic market sentiment may provide some short-term support. Historical experience from February and October 2025 suggests that after such extreme sentiment, rebounds tend to be quick and followed by consolidation. Triggers could include sustained ETF fund inflows or a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions.

Scenario 2: Sideways Bottoming and Trend Reversal

If XRP can complete sufficient capitulation within the $1.30–$1.40 range and on-chain activity begins to rise steadily, it could set the stage for a more sustained trend reversal. This would require macro liquidity conditions to improve (e.g., renewed Fed rate cut expectations), continued ETF fund inflows, and new on-chain activity driven by Ripple’s ecosystem products like RLUSD stablecoins.

Scenario 3: Continued Macro Pressure and Further Decline

If macro factors remain adverse—such as escalating geopolitical conflicts or persistent inflation data forcing the Fed to maintain tighter policies—the overall risk appetite in crypto could decline further, dragging XRP down with the market. In this case, sentiment extremes could deepen below current levels, with support around $1.20. It’s worth noting that when sentiment indicators reach extreme levels, their reliability as contrarian signals can diminish—extreme values can become even more extreme, as history shows.

Conclusion

XRP’s market sentiment has reached its third most pessimistic level in two years, a verifiable fact. Past rebounds following similar extremes are also documented in historical data.

However, the key difference this time is the more complex macro environment. Uncertainty factors—geopolitical risks and Fed policy stance—are more prominent than in July 2025, forming a “double constraint” on risk assets. Extreme sentiment alone does not constitute an independent investment signal; its value must be cross-validated with other data dimensions.