Ceasefire = Bearish for oil prices? This move actually hides a "reversal script"

Many people simply interpret this oil price decline as:
"Ceasefire → Bearish for oil prices."
But that's too superficial.
The real logic is:
👉 The market is doing "expectation retracement trading"
What does that mean?
Previously, oil prices rose based on the worst-case scenario:
The Strait of Hormuz being blocked → 20% of global oil transportation disrupted.
Now, this script has been temporarily denied.
So the market cuts off the "worst-case expectation," and prices naturally fall back.
But the key question is:
👉 Has the worst-case scenario really disappeared?
Not at all.
Tehran has already made it clear:
Negotiation ≠ End of conflict.
Translated into market language, this means:
👉 "Bro, don’t celebrate too early."
So, this round of market movement is essentially:
📉 Expectation cooling
Not
📉 Risk disappearance.
What are the truly smart funds doing?
👉 Not chasing short positions
👉 Waiting for events
Because if negotiations fail, the rebound in oil prices could be even sharper than the decline. #特朗普同意停火两周