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Ceasefire = Bearish for oil prices? This move actually hides a "reversal script"
Many people simply interpret this oil price decline as:
"Ceasefire โ Bearish for oil prices."
But that's too superficial.
The real logic is:
๐ The market is doing "expectation retracement trading"
What does that mean?
Previously, oil prices rose based on the worst-case scenario:
The Strait of Hormuz being blocked โ 20% of global oil transportation disrupted.
Now, this script has been temporarily denied.
So the market cuts off the "worst-case expectation," and prices naturally fall back.
But the key question is:
๐ Has the worst-case scenario really disappeared?
Not at all.
Tehran has already made it clear:
Negotiation โ End of conflict.
Translated into market language, this means:
๐ "Bro, donโt celebrate too early."
So, this round of market movement is essentially:
๐ Expectation cooling
Not
๐ Risk disappearance.
What are the truly smart funds doing?
๐ Not chasing short positions
๐ Waiting for events
Because if negotiations fail, the rebound in oil prices could be even sharper than the decline. #็นๆๆฎๅๆๅ็ซไธคๅจ