Many people are actually unaware of one point: currently, about 21% of BTC is being held tightly by long-term holders without moving.

In the market, there are basically two words: buy and sell. But these long-term players are essentially the market's "floor price creators." The more it drops, the more they buy. How can it easily collapse under their watch?

On-chain data is also very clear. Between 60k and 66k, whales are genuinely accumulating, not just talking about it.

Another key figure is Michael Saylor. This guy is basically dollar-cost averaging every week, more punctual than many people's paychecks.

So for those shouting every day to bring the price back to 40k, you should first think clearly about one thing: what kind of black swan event would need to happen to make this group of people collectively dump? Digging deeper, what is the probability of such an event occurring? Therefore, by observing how much short-term holders can create volatility at the bottom, we can roughly estimate that the phase bottom should be around 50k-60k.
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