The Strait of Hormuz, as a global energy chokepoint, carries about 1/4 of the world’s shipping oil and 1/5 of liquefied natural gas daily. Its fluctuations will affect the cryptocurrency market trend directly through a transmission chain of oil prices—inflation—liquidity—risk appetite, making it a macro risk source that the crypto community must closely watch.

一、Core transmission path: from energy to crypto assets
1. Oil price rises in pulses: navigation through the strait is obstructed (e.g., the control status in March 2026), leading to a global crude oil daily supply gap of 10-16 million barrels, and Brent crude has at one point broken through $118 per barrel. High oil prices push up global inflation, forcing central banks such as the Federal Reserve to slow down rate cuts and even tighten liquidity, squeezing the funding conditions of the crypto market. ​
2. Risk appetite shifts quickly: when geopolitical conflicts escalate, funds move from traditional risk assets into safe-haven assets, and BTC may receive short-term inflows due to its “digital gold” attribute; however, if the conflict continues to worsen, overall market risk aversion rises, and crypto assets will still be sold off.
​ 3. Supply chain and cost spillover: oil tankers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope increases the voyage length by 40% and causes freight rates to surge 11-fold; war-risk insurance premiums jump from 0.2%-0.3% to 1%-3%. As global enterprises’ costs rise and their profits face pressure, this in turn affects where venture capital flows, dealing a blow to the crypto industry’s financing environment. ​
4. Miner hash power faces indirect pressure: about 8%-10% of global Bitcoin hashrate relies on oil-price-linked power (e.g., in Gulf countries). If oil prices continue to stay high or push up mining costs, it will affect miners’ revenues and the stability of hash power.
二、Latest situation and market implications as of April 2026
- Turning point: the Iran-US ceasefire takes effect on April 8. The two sides will start negotiations on April 10 and commit to ensuring safe passage through the strait within 15 days. In the short term, the geopolitical risk premium may decline, and oil prices may fall from the $110-120 per barrel range in a sideways-to-downward manner, benefiting liquidity repair.
​ - Market rhythm: during the negotiation period (April 8-23), if the situation remains stable, BTC may continue to trade in a $70,000-$75,000 range, with funds focusing on low-volatility mainstream coins; if the negotiations break down and the strait closes again, oil may hit $140 per barrel, and BTC may quickly probe the $65,000 support level.

Every fluctuation in the Strait of Hormuz is a “touchstone” for macro risks in the crypto market. By keeping close track of energy prices and the cadence of geopolitical negotiations, and flexibly adjusting your positions and strategy, you can seize opportunities amid volatility.

$BTC $ETH #Gate广场四月发帖挑战 #特朗普同意停火两周