Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

MeNews · 2026-04-08T08:28:03+00:00

The non-farm employment report released by the United States shows 178k new jobs added, exceeding expectations and supporting the dollar. The Iran war continues, and the market is about to face important data releases such as CPI, with analysts warning, "Now is not the time to trade."

MeNews

2026-04-08 08:28:03

Abstract generation in progress

ME News update, April 4 (UTC+8). On Friday, the United States released its nonfarm payrolls report, showing the country added 178k jobs, far above expectations. Meanwhile, February’s data was revised from the initially estimated decrease of 92k to a decrease of 133k. Against the backdrop of reduced odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, the report provided near-term support for the US dollar. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “quick win” script that Trump promised is moving toward collapse. The market’s more critical test is also coming: the first CPI after the outbreak of war is set to be released soon, and inflation could run wild. Some people have warned, “This is not the time to trade.” Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time):

Monday 22:00, US March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI;
Tuesday 23:00, US March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;
Wednesday 00:35, remarks on monetary policy by FOMC 2027 voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee;
Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the monetary policy meeting;
Thursday 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US, the US February core PCE price index (year-over-year rate), the US February personal spending (month-over-month rate), the final Q4 US real GDP annualized quarterly rate, the final Q4 US real personal consumption expenditures quarterly rate, the final Q4 US core PCE price index (year-over-year annualized rate), and the US February core PCE price index (month-over-month rate);
Friday 20:30, the US March unadjusted CPI year-over-year/core CPI year-over-year, and the US March seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month/core CPI month-over-month.

Friday 22:00, the initial US April one-year inflation rate expectation, the initial US April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and the US February factory orders month-over-month (source: PANews)

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