Ceasefire for 2 weeks

Good news: the ceasefire is for 2 weeks. This morning at the open, both risk assets and safe-haven assets rose—only crude oil and the U.S. dollar index fell.

There’s a ceasefire for 2 weeks, but it may not be truly 2 weeks, and it’s not a full termination of the war. So afterward, there will probably be more back-and-forth.

Today, China A-shares had a big rebound. Most of the gains came from a favorable gap-up driven by good news. Trading volume was larger than yesterday, but I don’t feel like money is rushing in aggressively—the kind of feeling of “if you don’t buy now, you won’t be able to buy later.” So for this move up, I have a plan to cut positions.

Nasdaq futures have already risen back to the level before the war, as if nothing happened. I also have some short positions in U.S. stocks that are underwater; I’m waiting until Open AI lists and starts pulling in cash to see if I can get out of the losing trades.

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Gold: the direction was right, but my long positions from before got stopped out by a stop-loss last night, and after that I didn’t open new trades. There’s also no need to chase after the high open this morning. From the chart, right now it’s basically the 5th wave on the hourly timeframe, with the final wave moving up.

I’ll try to touch 5000 with the 5th wave as much as possible, so the entire rebound would reach there. But the 5th wave doesn’t mean you should jump in and go long right now. After the morning sentiment shock, it’s been consolidating during the Asian and European sessions. If there’s a drop, I’ll try to go long. If there isn’t, I’ll just wait and see again tomorrow.