Just noticed cocoa futures getting hit pretty hard today - NY March contract down nearly 3% as the dollar's been pushing higher. London's following a similar pattern. What's interesting is this comes right after Monday's solid rally, so we're seeing some profit-taking mixed with technical pressure.

The supply story in the cocoa industries is still compelling though. Ivory Coast shipments came in light this season, and there's been talk about tighter global supplies pushing prices up. But here's the thing - weather in West Africa has actually been cooperating, helping trees bloom and develop well. That's kept a lid on how far prices can run. Plus, the EU delayed that deforestation regulation, which basically means West African cocoa can keep flowing without the new restrictions kicking in immediately.

What's got me watching the cocoa market closer is the demand side looking soft. Asian and European grindings both fell year-over-year in Q3, hitting multi-year lows. Meanwhile, Nigeria's production is expected to drop significantly next season. So we've got this tug-of-war - tighter supplies versus weaker demand. The cocoa industries are also getting support from that Bloomberg index inclusion, supposedly bringing $2 billion in buying. But today's dollar strength just overwhelmed that, triggering some long liquidations. Might be worth watching support levels if this continues.