Polymarket "Trump will announce the end of military actions against Iran before April 30" probability rises to 61%, up 30% in 24 hours

SmartContractAuditor · 2026-04-08T07:56:03+00:00

The probability of the event contract on Polymarket regarding "Trump ending military actions against Iran" once rose to 78%, now at 61%. The total trading volume of the contract has exceeded $15.67M, and the rules require an official statement from Trump to determine the end of the action. Trump has previously stated a ceasefire with Iran but did not provide specific details.

SmartContractAuditor

2026-04-08 07:56:03

Abstract generation in progress

Odaily Seer monitor reports from the oracle channel show that the Polymarket probability for “Trump announces the end of military action against Iran before April 30” once surged sharply to 78%, and is now at 61%. Up 30% over the past 24 hours, as of now the total trading volume of the event contract for “When will Trump announce the end of military action against Iran” has already surpassed $15.67M.

The rules for this event contract are: if President Trump, the U.S. government, or the military publicly and officially announces that the military action against Iran initiated on February 28, 2026, has ended before the specified date (U.S. Eastern Time), then the market will be determined as “Yes”; otherwise, the market will be determined as “No”. Declarations that meet the conditions must clearly state that the action has already ended. Informal statements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaked information do not qualify. Trump’s publicly available written statements (for example, his posts on his personal “Truth Social” account) will be treated as valid statements, and videos posted on Trump’s social media accounts will also be treated as valid statements. The market’s primary basis for determination is official statements from the U.S. government and/or its official representatives, but it will also take into account consensus from other credible reports.

Previously, Trump announced that he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, and also said the U.S. would help address the increasingly backed-up shipping traffic issues in the Strait of Hormuz. However, in the post Trump published on Truth Social, he did not provide specific details about how the U.S. would help with the strait, nor did he discuss the possibility of Iran continuing to charge tolls to certain ships passing through the strait.

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