Bitunix Analyst: Ceasefire Eases Supply Shock but Does Not Alter Structural Pressures, Policy Divergence Widens, Market Enters 'Uncertainty Premium Dominated' Phase

On April 8, the market experienced a dramatic shift from ‘full-scale escalation risk’ to a ‘two-week ceasefire window’ in a short period. On the surface, Iran’s acceptance of the ceasefire and the expectation of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a marginal easing of the extreme shock to energy supplies; however, from a decision-making perspective, this shift is not based on the end of the conflict but rather a temporary concession under political pressure, the need for financial market stability, and negotiation dynamics, indicating that supply risks have only been postponed, not eliminated. Meanwhile, within the Federal Reserve, there is still an emphasis on rising inflation risks and weakening employment, showing that the policy environment remains in a state of ‘passive response to supply shocks.’ From the perspective of policy and international reactions, structural divergences are widening. On one hand, Federal Reserve officials have reached a consensus that energy shocks will drive up inflation, maintaining the logic for keeping interest rates high; on the other hand, Japan’s wages have reached a multi-decade high, reinforcing expectations for interest rate hikes, indicating that major global economies are tightening liquidity in unison. This ‘non-coordinated tightening’ combined with geopolitical uncertainties prevents the market from forming a stable interest rate expectation anchor. At the same time, attacks on Russian energy facilities and Iran’s retention of negotiation leverage to close the Strait represent a highly vulnerable state for the energy supply chain, where any event could potentially trigger a price increase again.