🔥Bitunix Analyst: Ceasefire alleviates supply shocks but does not change structural pressures; policy disagreements are widening, and the market has entered a phase of "uncertainty premium dominance."

The market has experienced a rapid shift from "full-scale risk escalation" to a "two-week ceasefire window." On the surface, Iran accepting a ceasefire and expectations of reopening the Strait of Hormuz have marginally eased extreme shocks to energy supply; however, from the decision-making perspective, this shift is not based on an end to conflict but is a temporary concession driven by political pressure, financial market stability needs, and negotiation bargaining, implying that supply risks are merely postponed, not eliminated. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve still emphasizes upside inflation risks and weakening employment, indicating that the policy environment remains in a "reactive to supply shocks" state. From policy and international responses, structural disagreements are widening. On one hand, Federal Reserve officials suggest that energy shocks will push...