Bitcoin in historic buy zone as 90% of capital slips into loss – Details

Bitcoin [BTC] is going through a tough time in the market, with concerns around losses and possible selling pressure from major holders.

However, it’s not as hopeless as it seems.

Bitcoin underwater – A strong entry point?

Roughly 80% to 90% of invested capital is currently at a loss, putting a large share of market participants in trouble. This is not the first time the market has reached such levels though.

    AD

Similar conditions have appeared in previous cycles, and every time, a recovery phase followed.

Source: Rand/X

High, unrealized losses often come with peak fear, when sentiment is weak but long-term value begins to improve.

This does not guarantee an immediate reversal, but it puts Bitcoin in an accumulation zone that investors would likely watch.

MARA Holdings adds to selling concerns

According to Arkham Intelligence, MARA Holdings (the fourth largest BTC treasury) transferred 200 BTC worth around $13.84 million. This is interesting because the receiving wallet appears to be linked to selling activity!

Source: Arkham Intelligence

The last time MARA sent Bitcoin to this wallet was about two months ago. It’s not a confirmed sale, but it has added to the somber mood already building in the market.

At a time when a large share of Bitcoin capital is already in loss, such moves can increase short-term selling fears and pressure BTC’s price.

Bitcoin’s price stays above key support level

Despite the recent weakness, all hope is not lost for Bitcoin though.

Some are labelling the current state a “compression,” rather than a full market reset. While BTC is down roughly 50% from its 2025 peak, the price is still holding above $68.6K, well above its key long-term on-chain support levels.

Source: X

At the time of writing, BTC was still above the Realized Price ($54.1K), LTH Realized Price ($49.2K), and Investor Price ($49.5K). So, the broader cost basis of the market is still intact too.

Source: X

In fact, weakness appeared to be more visible among recent buyers, with BTC still trading below the STH Realized Price ($79.2K) and True Market Mean Price ($78.3K).

This implied that while STHs may be under pressure, the long-term support structure has not yet given in.

Final Summary

• _Bitcoin’s price entered an important accumulation zone, with 80-90% of capital in loss at press time. _
• Despite selling fears, BTC remains above its key long-term on-chain support.