4.8 Volume surge with a strong open and strong rise, is the relay and trend again alternating?

Like first, then watch—earnings of a million a day. Keep up the good work and tip generously—good luck is always around! If the morning market musings each day have helped you, I hope you won’t be stingy with likes. Double-click the little guy 666 in the comments section![Taochat]
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From now on, every stock you follow or unfollow will come with a logic breakdown. For brothers interested in learning, you can watch together with the morning market musings. Once you learn the logic, you can slowly add your own understanding!**
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Brothers who like livestreams can hit the “remind to broadcast” button more often. When the platform arranges livestreams later, leave a comment with the knowledge you want to learn!**
These are recent livestream replays. Brothers who missed it can take a look
https://shuo.tgb.cn/shuo/toViewShuo?shuoID=2035896933738786836#type=zblb **
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First is an overview of the market

** As usual, start by taking a look at the morning market musings**. The difficulty of the recent market has been relatively high. Yesterday, the U.S.-Iran conflict was raging hot, and quant funds flattened out by selling off the oversold chemical sector here—completely caught people off guard, because many people couldn’t think of this. The result: this morning the U.S.-Iran battle stopped again for twenty days. Quant funds then abandoned chemicals again to flatten into AI applications. Here, the morning market musings define this kind of behavior by quant funds as “oversold arbitrage”—pulling only oversold names, not reinforcing the high-position sector. So fundamentally, it indicates the index is wrong and sentiment is wrong. Even though today’s index looks strong, what it’s pulling is still the high/low rotation direction. The optical communications that held up earlier is getting a gap-up and then a pullback; it opened higher and then went lower. The Xin Duo Duo concept, which has been huddling through negative feedback, also shows signs of breaking down today.

For the limit-up streaks, Tianjin Yaoyao last night was a bit off. Even though it got volume for a step-up, it’s already at seven boards, yet sector fermentation still couldn’t keep up—so Tianjin Yaoyao might be more of a “huddled holding.” When the index prints a big bullish candle today, what breaks down is that huddling. If Tianjin Yaoyao is judged by yesterday’s environment, opening up nine percent today would be “above expectations.” It could turn from weak to strong after a huge volume—however, when placed at today’s big bullish index node, opening that high is a bit “foolhardy.” Add to that during the pre-market auction, the Xin Duo Duo concept split very severely. Meinuo Hua topped with a one-word (straight) limit, but most others opened very low. The signal to the market is that the huddling is breaking down—this is also why Tianjin Yaoyao could be bought yesterday but shouldn’t be touched today.

On the news side, it really feels explosive. Last night, “Huang Mao” was still swaggering about making Langzi civilization disappear, yet this morning it was the first to agree to a ceasefire. Right after that, Langzi also agreed to ceasefire. What does this mean? It means that even though both sides are tough with their words, neither side actually wants to fight. It hurts the economy too much. The result is that neither side gets anything good. Then there’s this twenty-day ceasefire window. At least for this period, the overall environment won’t be that bad. So understanding this window, the first thing is: don’t rush. Timing matters. You must figure out which part is the main attack, and which part is only oversold repair.

Looking at today’s market: if AI hardware continues the high/low rotation, it still has strength to attack. Because even though it’s high/low rotation, names like CPO and PCB are not low-position—these are after earlier consolidation, with hopes of making new highs, and then launching a fresh attack cycle. As for AI applications, subjectively they’re mainly oversold rebounds. Why pull them? Because they fell a lot and are cheap. With many trapped holders, the question of persistence is definitely in doubt. If after today the market keeps attacking AI applications, there’s a structural problem: if it instead attacks AI hardware and compute power, then under index resonance, the rebound height is promising.

** On sentiment,** mainly we watch Tianjin Yaoyao. If Tianjin Yaoyao advances, then it’s about watching for supporting rallies around Tianjin Yaoyao. If Tianjin Yaoyao breaks down and fails to maintain, then we check whether Huiyuan and Taishan can “absorb the damage” and keep crossing over. Huiyuan is still not buyable—so effectively it acts like a tool person. On one hand, if Tianjin Yaoyao breaks, it helps the lower tier absorb the damage. On the other hand, it helps Changfei hold up sentiment. Changfei’s rhythm is “institution huddling”: when the index isn’t good, it performs; when the index is good, it adjusts. I saw many brothers today just directly went in on Xinneng Taishan. Let me mention again: it has flaws, so don’t directly play it. First, yesterday’s volume shrink was too severe. If yesterday’s turnover had been sufficient, then there would be one less flaw here. Second, Huiyuan’s auction was net reduced orders—suggesting divergence in fiber optics. After Xinneng Taishan opened higher, it sold off. You can say it washed out profit-taking holders. So when it tries to close back (re-attempt the board), according to the “previously likes to explode volume” character, it should also be about facing the sell-pressure when re-closing, not about straight-up buying. Because Huiyuan is destined to cause sector divergence today, and Changfei at the open was also directly selling hard. Taishan can potentially be bet on for getting on board in this environment, but you must watch the order book and do order cancel/replace decisively—otherwise the profit-taking that accelerated yesterday is easy to not catch.

Two to three boards today: one stock, Zhonganke, advanced. You could say the auction was the best solution, but the opening action was indeed quite messy. In the auction, Changyuan Donggu had a big order one-word, Hubei provided guidance, and Hanggang also had big-order one-word guidance for compute power. Results: Aorui De was earlier than it to board. So this kind of boarding looks more like “getting it right”—theoretically, a “getting-it-right” board can only be watched for queue/cancel to judge sell pressure. But if you queue/cancel on this stock, you likely can’t buy; you can only sweep.

For one to two boards: the advance rate is very low for multiple reasons. First, yesterday the index was down, Tianjin Yaoyao was above expectations, and the fermentation was mostly safe-haven style themes responding. Then today the index has a big bullish candle—meaning yesterday’s push has been overturned. So whether it’s chemicals or Tianjin Yaoyao follow-on rally, today they just don’t work well. Second, yesterday quant funds used too much force: chemicals were flattened too much. So most of them are tool-person atmosphere players, and it’s normal that many fall behind. Today is a big bullish day. In theory it’s an important node. If tomorrow the one-to-two advance rate is still very low, then something is wrong. Looking at today’s one-to-two advance candidates, you can clearly see that a big bullish candle disrupted yesterday’s money layout. With a new layout today, the second-board names have more “flaws.”

Guangdong Media relied on football to extend its life yesterday; today it catches the AI applications tailwind—there’s no solution. Tongding Internet is on fiber optics but wasn’t affected by Changfei—meaning it’s going in purely for a follow-on rally. Kerui Technology from the CPO angle fermented a bit better than fiber optics, but it includes Rui (瑞). Nanjing (Jinling) got blocked new Tian (新天), but there are Jiangsu flaws. Gaole promoted East (东), Huayuan promoted Huiyuan. For China International Engineering Consulting (Zhonggong Guoji), if you say it’s “rebuilding,” that’s a bit early—this is only a ceasefire for twenty days, not a permanent ceasefire.

** Finally, look at today’s trading idea**. Yesterday, Huiyuan said it would play the role of “Moe/“Moran”” (摩恩) with “hardness level three.” If you don’t let it (proceed), then the first board yesterday—which is today’s one-to-two—is also wrong. Meanwhile, Huiyuan being strong will反推 (reverse-propagate) Tianjin Yaoyao. If Tianjin Yaoyao opens green and gets pressed down, then the node where the first board Tianjin Yaoyao exploded in volume and layout is likely to be easy to face. But if Tianjin Yaoyao can take Huiyuan away, that would be even better. However, the big bullish candle here breaks the layout from yesterday. Huiyuan fermented badly yesterday, but the index was a big bullish candle—so the highest board in tech was being topped by someone. Even though Tianjin Yaoyao is under regulation, opening that high also serves as a “refutation” of yesterday’s first-board node. If following yesterday’s environment, there may still be a chance for Tianjin Yaoyao to break through—meaning first, keep pace with Huadian Liaoneng’s height. But with the index being a big bullish candle, regardless of whether it’s medicine or huddling, it’s easily hit. Tianjin Yaoyao then breaks the board, but it’s a “touch-and-break,” not a clean breakdown. Personally, I feel there’s a problem with today’s one-to-two. The node where Tianjin Yaoyao rebuilds should be today’s first board.

** Next, look at the auction order information extraction**. It was fine to see Xin Duo Duo open with multiple stocks hitting limit-down openings. Stocks like Far Sheng and Guosheng Technology opened at limit-down. Here, there are regulatory factors, and also the influence of today’s big bullish index pushing the huddling higher. Baihua Biopharmaceutical opened with the largest buy order. In new drugs, they definitely get “benefits.” With Tianjin Yaoyao denying/newspapering new drugs, going hard to eat this benefit feels a bit awkward.

Changyuan Donggu’s auction had the second-largest order, indicating Hubei and gas turbines. From today’s market, Hubei ate the benefits and Zhonganke took it. Meanwhile, there are also many first-board institutional picks for gas turbines—so treat it as arbitrage first. Huiyuan’s orders were also huge, suggesting that the overnight position likely isn’t buyable. Meinuo Hua had a big-order one-word limit. Compared with Xin Duo Duo concept stocks opening at limit-down, it feels like Meinuo Hua is trying to save the day. But Meinuo Hua previously had stabbed the pharmaceutical sector quite a lot, so I don’t think Meinuo Hua’s one-word board is a “drug-sector assist.” More likely it’s a premium for Xin Duo Duo seats.

Hanggang’s auction was also big-order one-word. It suggests compute power leasing. From the auction alone, Hanggang’s one-word is still relatively above expectations. Changyuan Donggu and Baihua both kept their sell/buy orders tight and fought back and forth. In the end, Baihua Biopharmaceutical had the largest buy order for a board—so that’s innovation drugs + Zhejiang. Combined with Hanggang’s big-order one-word, the likelihood that Zhejiang’s medicine rides Zhejiang’s main up move is higher. So those who felt weak-to-strong and went in to catch Tianjin Yaoyao today may have misread. First, Tianjin Yaoyao was regulated overnight—and it even said it was “passing the baton.” Second, Tianjin Yaoyao also denied the new drug rumor, so how could it eat this bowl of food?

After 920, it showed Huiyuan Communication’s order lock was abnormal. Yesterday it had more than 2.4T order lock; under a big bullish index, today eight hundred million-plus would be normal. But at 920 it was only a bit over 300 million. Later it added a few orders. So Huiyuan’s overnight shares were canceled right at the open—what it feared was canceling on “hardness level three,” which would then smash the order book. It also said: if Huiyuan cancels and smashes, pay attention to the incoming support. Only when you look at the close-back, queue/cancel and watch the sell pressure can it work. Don’t be stubborn and hard-top; it will likely be killed by the three-sell smash.

Baihua Biopharmaceutical’s big-order one-word feels like it is actually the strongest follow-on rally for Tianjin Yaoyao. Yesterday Xintian was a “savior” behavior. Today a one-word open already gave an excessive premium. But then it was blocked by Jinling. So this Jinling “blocking” still needs to think about its deeper intention. Is it letting Jiangsu medicine go later? Or is today’s environment better for turnover and better continuation—so it needs better handover and support? After Hanggang comes auction add-on orders, which means strengthening the expectation for compute power leasing. After 925, Tianjin Yaoyao gave people a shock opening up nine percent. This is definitely not right. Opening too high is one thing. Yesterday it exploded in volume; a regulated stock should be honest and swap/turnover properly. Add the big bullish index shock—medicine and huddling are both negative factors—so opening like this is a bit too deliberate.

In the auction scramble, the first stock to open red was Ningde Times. But today the battery fermentation wasn’t good. Here, the direction was still decided by the institutions’ positioning. Institutions are still huddling AI hardware, but they rotated to PCB with the high/low switch, while quant funds did an oversold rebound in AI applications.

After the open, the Mingpu Guangci that opened with a one-word limit exploded off the board. This suggests Changfei’s impact on optical communications is still quite large. But Yizhongtian here steadied sentiment. Meanwhile, China Zhi Ji (中际旭创) also made new intraday highs. So you need to pay attention to whether fiber optics rotates back into CPO. Taishan’s re-closing was actually relatively fast, but not long after, it exploded off. Taishan exploded, and Zhonganke then got on board. This seems a bit deliberate. Whether it’s Hanggang’s big-order one-word at auction, or the mass onboarding of compute power leasing at the open, Zhonganke hard blocked Taishan’s failure and pulled itself up—pay attention to whether it signals that after compute power, the following days it takes over from optical communications. But honestly, compute power leasing has given many chances before. Every time it’s like this: it can’t get through. It’s still because institutions’ AI hardware positioning is too heavy, so they intentionally press down other tech sectors.

** Finally, summarize today’s overall market**. Today’s action was mainly influenced by the news of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire for twenty days. Overseas markets all opened higher and went higher; U.S. stock futures also surged. In this environment, today we watched whether A-shares (A market) would open high with volume and continue high. But we also need to note what theme is being attacked today. After the open, volume is fine. But in optical communications, it opened high and then went low. The earlier anti-fall strength was cashed in directly after opening.

For the “relay” part, today’s disaster area is the huddling stocks, which are also the earlier anti-fall names. So theoretically, if there’s a new theme layout, there should be follow-through for the anti-fall names to catch up. Looking at today’s market: after the open it pulled compute power leasing, commercial aerospace, AI applications, and PCB. For now, there’s no new excitement—more like repair of the old cycle. In a market like this, either you buy and it goes up right at the open—no matter what rank it is, it’s pure arbitrage—or you quickly identify the front-row winners and focus there. If you can’t buy front-row, then just hold overnight. With a hundred first boards, randomly hitting the back-row can easily have no premium. Still, you need to pay attention to recognizability. Even if you have a few percent of intraday floating profit today, tomorrow a low open could wipe it out. So today, if you open: either you’re confident in the trend, or you buy the front row. If the front row isn’t buyable, take the overnight plan.

The afternoon market was relatively steady. After the afternoon open, there was a burst of incremental volume—probably because the big money that missed the earlier move entered. Then it maintained consolidation. This is a good thing. The overall market volume expanded to 2.4 trillion, and the index opened high and kept going higher. Today it didn’t rush to challenge the 4000-point level. So next, pay attention to whether it continues to expand volume and break above 4000. If tomorrow the volume is too much reduced, it’s definitely wrong—it’s prone to high then retreat. In the current market, many people probably feel uncomfortable because they fear the rebound will be capped right away and they’ll miss today’s arbitrage. But you should know: once the bottom is confirmed, big money needs time to move; it’s not like retail investors who go all-in at the drop of a hat. Also, looking at today’s tape, institutional behavior is more dominant, so there won’t be a continuous squeeze. Even tomorrow might just be time for adjustment. So from these angles, we should be more calm and analyze: which sectors show sustained strength, whether the optical communications trend is being taken over—not rushing to trade positions, only to have profits and losses net out through up and down the next day.

** Revisit the limit-up boards (stacking boards) **

I. Four boards: Tianjin Yaoyao through the crossover node. If Tianjin Yaoyao breaks the board and there’s a big negative feedback, it’s easy to be “disproved”
Huiyuan Communication Sichuan Fiber Beijing major shareholder Smart grid Small float General share size Hardness level three Today the locked order wasn’t right, triggering divergence in fiber optics

II. Three boards:
Zhonganke Hubei Compute power Xinchuang network security Changyuan Donggu—Hubei’s largest order. It opened with compute power leading consecutive boards. It’s a “悟道” board.

III. Two boards: Tianjin Yaoyao—exploded volume node. The advance rate is very low

1. Jinling Pharmaceutical Jiangsu Innovation drugs Shares are okay. It blocked Xintian. The late-day board explosion is a bit hard to understand; it deliberately built a two-board explosion in volume.
2. Gaole Shares Guangdong Private placement financing Raising funds Playing with toys Battery IP economy Shares are fragmented Guangdong promotes East
3. Tongding Internet Jiangsu Fiber optics Energy storage Solid-state batteries Changfei’s follow-on rally?
4. Guangdong Media Guangdong AI marketing AI applications Football. Yesterday football protected its “board seat.” Today AI applications fermented. A masterstroke?
5. Kerui Technology Guangdong CPO Apple Liquid-cooled server Institutions’ trend positioning—used to block Tongding with purpose, but it includes Rui. Can it win?
6. China International Engineering Consulting Beijing Rebuilding in the Middle East Compute power Shares are decent. In reality, it’s “Beijing pushing Beijing.”
7. Huayuan Holdings Beijing Property management Smart home Shares are decent. No real theme—so it’s only “Beijing pushing Beijing.”
8. Pubang Shares Guangdong Landscaping Infrastructure Pension Shares are fragmented. Feels like it’s strengthening Guangdong expectations.
9. Xinhonggang Zhejiang Energy storage Green power Unfortunately it comes with debt, but shares are excellent; it pulled up for a board at the end of the day.

IV. First boards: Index bullish resonance node

1. Hanggang Stock Zhejiang Compute power leasing deepseek Green energy Auction guidance big order. Compute power leasing fermentation
2. Western Gold Xinjiang Gold Minor metals Auction guidance big order. Precious metals fermentation
3. Baihua Biopharmaceutical Xinjiang Jinhua state-owned takeover. Then that’s Zhejiang innovation drugs. Biggest auction order—so Tianjin Yaoyao is basically “deliberately letting it.” Jinling eats the benefits; Zhejiang medicine accompanies Zhejiang’s main upswing.
4. Changyuan Donggu Hubei Restructuring benefits Low-altitude economy Gas turbines Gas turbines fermentation is okay
5. Meinuo Hua Zhejiang Weight-loss drugs Xin Duo Duo concept. Xin Duo Duo and other names show negative feedback, yet this one tops with a one-word limit—someone needs to correct it on one side
6. Mingpu Guangci Guangdong CPO The stock’s “equity nature” is really good. Every time there’s an AI行情, it hits the one-word limit. But the board failure is a flaw.
7. Wanze Shares Guangdong Gas turbines Low-altitude economy Arbitrage on Changyuan Donggu
8. Dongsan Precision Jiangsu CPO PCB Auction near one-word exact. PCB fermentation
9. China Jade? (Huaxia Airlines) Guizhou Aviation Fuel price drop favorable news as stimulus
10. Bailong Chuangyuan Shandong Sugar substitute Cross-strait
11. Aorui De Heilongjiang Compute power leasing Share float is thin—responding to Hanggang
12. Construction Machinery Shaanxi Construction machinery. It should be responding to China International Engineering Consulting
13. Chuangyuan Technology Jiangsu Commercial aerospace Robots Semiconductor cleanrooms Real response to Yuan (源)
14. Lianxiang Shares Zhejiang Textiles Wall cladding leader Zhejiang textiles guidance node
15. Shenjian Shares Anhui High-speed rail Commercial aerospace Aerospace follow-through fermentation. There’s a trend and possible new high opportunity
16. Kewan Wisdom Jiangsu AI applications Robots Shares are fragmented
17. Dashet Smart Guangdong AI applications Cloud computing Promote Guangdong Media
18. Xiamen Engineering Xiamen State-owned assets Construction machinery xxx visiting message stimulates infrastructure
19. Jintuo Shares Shanghai Robotics Tesla Robots following AI applications oversold rebound
20. LEO Shares Zhejiang AI applications Liquid-cooled server AI applications old dragon Strengthens the board by hitting limit-up expected
21. Guilin Tourism Guangxi AI cultural tourism Low-altitude economy AI applications diversification
22. Heli Tai Fujian E-paper Compute power leasing PCB Suggests compute power and PCB “Heli” together?
23. Data Port Shanghai Compute power leasing Alibaba system Afternoon second-to-second board response to Hanggang
24. Zhongtian Service Zhejiang Property management Elder care Three-stock pool
25. First Capital Beijing Financial stocks. Feels like it came to help Huiyuan Communication.
26. Laiyi Foods Shanghai Consumer IP economy Consumer pushes up Geole (高乐). Expectation gap?

** Key stock点评**

Tongda Shares Oil & gas down; negative for power. At open it surged and then pulled back. Based on the previous low, it was defensive, but after it broke after being taken off the watchlist, it then rallied to red again. However today it didn’t flip back—missing the vibe.

Hongjing Technology Compute power leasing has high identification. For AI applications, it previously was accompanied by compute power leasing as well. After hitting new highs, attention dropped because institutional stocks often smash after making new highs. After it stabilizes and holds new highs, then consider adding back. Regrettably today it didn’t catch the 20cm move; compute power leasing needed a bit more push in the afternoon.

Xinneng Taishan Optical communications auction looked good, but Huiyuan’s locked order wasn’t right, and the order size wasn’t as large as yesterday’s, so I predicted there would be divergence at the open. When it closed back, it would be a queue/cancel situation to watch the sell pressure. As long as you keep watching, this board explosion can be easily avoided.

Tongyu Communications Optical communications + commercial aerospace. It started earlier than the whole sector, and in chart it looks much better than Shunhao. Today commercial aerospace rotated down in the morning, but there was a rebound in the afternoon with persistence. So focus on intraday moving averages for trend opportunities.

588990: It’s currently holding above the 30-day moving average. Watch for trend opportunities. Defense is simple: use the 30-day moving average as support. ETF holdings are mainly storage and semiconductors.

** Again, thank you to all the brothers who tipped yesterday @猫猫发财猫@狼王行千里@dandy3574@猫哥catb@花信有时@彼得潘是对的@煮面大粥@桑榆非晚i**
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Again, thank you for the reward money and support @洪六公@请不要站在窗下@情小怀@唯梦倾城@lyh98888@骏豪大拿@白给王中王@小天一@差不多先生来了@Elite@向牛而升@奥莉奥斯缘@天才小火龙L@猫猫发财猫@Lee1987@shaks@Matt哥@zqzq1996@花信有时@好运哈哈哈@嘻嘻哈哈的知行合一@小度小度96@一一牛@狼王行千里@未记代价卖牡丹@知行合一168067@勇敢的猪猪@人简单一笔够写完一生@道乾坤1@发发发财发发@边涯@专注超短龙头@魉呼@百城兄弟@回本就行呜呜呜@骑驴看唱本寻马@sdffghhjkkk@自动敲木鱼@小小华哥哥@张世勋@不颜不雨@程888@大毛不做杂毛@拿小先生@紫金花@张优金@一口破钟@南京伊布@接盘的小韭菜@王德法@若水紫嫣@韭黄阿盼@dandy3574@AAAAKang@不动m@佑手旧零@蝉蛹好吃@不做韭菜好多年@初学炒股99@ZGX呆呆@楷森@江西小@左手化羽@在下A股鬼见愁@浙江余姚人蟑螂恶霸111@一亿路红@您的好邻居王哥@水阳江畔@Are21@西夕夕夕@燃烧的红河日股夜钓@吃mian达人@泡沫冬冬@guyd@红桃K的世界@半罐水888@magickang@张只有十七万@agag777@舵飞轮@Freedom航天@古秦洋@头晕时间 You are the brothers who quietly tipped and made your initial support—wishing all brothers daily profits!**
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No need for many oil tickets—seven is enough. Thanks to everyone for adding highlights to the post’s excellence. It will be the motivation for me to keep updating **