[Red Envelope] 4.8 Review: Tianjin Pharmaceutical Breaks Down, Waiting for a New Chapter

No looking for out-of-market logic—only seek in-market signals. Focus at the window. Go to the extreme at the nodes. And at the strongest players, remain steadfast to them to the end.[Tao Bao Ba]

Every day before the market opens, these three soul-searching questions must be carved into your mind:
1. Is there a main theme right now?
2. Is today a key turning point?
3. Does the strongest stock have a buy point?

The close has come, and spring color drifts in from the window. The tea on the table is already cold. I stare at the K-lines on my screen—the long upper shadow, like a hand reaching out and then pulling back. “Jin Yao.” After seven boards, it ultimately couldn’t clear that barrier.

Someone asks me, are you sad? Not really. If you trade for long enough, you get used to farewells; when you part with a stock, you also part with a stretch of the market, and with a chunk of profit. It’s just that in my mind, I’ll remember those backstage messages: the people who chased in at the board, the ones who panicked after it failed to re-close, the ones who asked me “What should I do?”—there’s an inexplicable ache in their hearts. I can’t help but want to ask: “Do you have a mine at home?”

I did my pre-close review yesterday, writing it clearly: “Jin Yao” has entered the third stage of emotional games. Today likely accelerates, but if active divergence appears—big volume with stalls—then that’s the exit point. I even laid out its detailed script in the article. Plain and straightforward.

Specifically, in the detailed part of yesterday’s review article:

[Red Envelope]4.7 Review: Seven-Board Jin Yao, Crossing the Tribulation to Become a Dragon

— even if today you were hurt, reading it again can help you remember and learn.

However, the backstage still received some private messages: “Teacher, I chased it into the board—what should I do?” “I thought after it failed to re-close it would come back, but it kept sliding downward… …”

I have nothing to say.

It’s not that I don’t want to talk—it’s that I don’t know what to say. What needed to be said, I said yesterday. When the signal came out, you weren’t there; when the risk arrived, you were. The market didn’t give you an opportunity—no, it’s that you chose to ignore it.

On this road of trading, no one can watch the screen for you, and no one can hold your hand down. What I can do is only draw the map and set waypoints at every fork. But whether you walk, and how you walk, is ultimately your own business.

Today’s bowl of noodles—hope you can remember its taste. Only after suffering can you know how hard-won sweetness is.

Back to today’s market—today is balanced, and that balance is being broken.

And our “Jin Yao,” after the seven boards, has arrived at its moment of failing the board.

I. The Moment of Board Failure: Active Divergence, Leave by Discipline

1. Reconstructing the Board-Failure Process

At 9:43 in the morning, metals in the market showed unusual intraday movement and rapidly surged. At the same time, in the medical sector, “Wanbang” began to dive. Then “Jin Yao” failed to re-close.
At this moment, the broader market surged to the highest peak since today’s open, with gains close to 1.53%, and meanwhile it started to explode in volume. This scene was like a carefully staged drama: metals surge, medicine dips, the core breaks the board. Three moves, linked seamlessly—done in one breath.

2. Active Divergence vs. Passive Divergence

Returning to the scenario I laid out in yesterday’s article: a major divergence had already appeared here. What needs to be considered is whether its divergence is active or passive.

Obviously it was active divergence. There are three bases for judging it:

First, when the board failed, the broader market didn’t fall— it was actually rising, so it wasn’t merely a passive follow;
Second, in the first minute after the board failed, the traded value was 156 million, higher than any minute before—this was active sell pressure;
Third, in the following few minutes, the stock price stayed below the moving averages and showed no intention to quickly re-close.

These three—every one is indispensable. If any one were missing, I might still choose to hold with a bigger stance. But since they all appeared together, then there was only one choice for me.

3. Executing Discipline

I watched for two or three minutes to confirm there was no sign of re-closing, and then I decisively exited.

Someone asks: If later it rallies again and hits the limit-up, would you hold for a bigger move or exit?

My answer is: I’ll still exit.

Because at that moment, the signal had already issued the instruction. My model told me: active divergence, explosive volume with a stall—that’s the exit point. Even if it re-closes later, that would be another trade and doesn’t belong to “me” today. This is the model, and this is discipline. No matter how you replay and how many times you start over, I will still make the same choice.

Review the entire “Jin Yao” cycle: trial-and-error on March 31, confirmation to add on April 1, locking on April 2, avoiding the holiday to exit on April 3, entering again on April 7, and exiting on April 8. Every step stayed within the model; every trade had a basis. There is no perfection—only correctness. I didn’t sell at the very highest point, but I sold at the position where I should sell.

Then I went to cash and watched the broader market perform.

4. Thoughts After the Board Failure

When “Jin Yao” fails its board, it means this leg of the medical sector’s uptrend is very likely over. From the trial on March 31 to the exit on April 8—that complete cycle has come to an end.

Fans ask: Will “Jin Yao” reverse and re-close? It’s possible, but a reversal is just the fish tail. In my model, I don’t eat fish tail. Fish tail has too many spines and can easily get stuck in your throat. My countless past experiences tell me that people trying to gamble in the fish tail are very often stuck and pierced by the spines—eight out of ten, if not more. Instead of struggling in uncertainty, keep your energy for the next fish.

This trade, from the “Jin Yao” unusual move to the end of the board-failure, lasted eight days. In those eight days, there was calm when there was divergence, excitement when it accelerated, cool-headedness when it failed to re-close, and decisiveness when exiting. This is trading. It isn’t an icy numbers game—it’s swings in emotion, a坚守 of discipline, and continuous self-review.

II. A Volume Thunderbolt: The Eve of a Possible Style Switch

Today’s index opened up at 1.03%. The intraday volume forecast for the whole day was “39k.” Yesterday’s open forecast was 13k, which is exactly double. This number is like a thunderclap that splits the dullness of repeated shrinking volume.

With this level of volume, it can only mean one thing: big tech is about to counterattack—or is a bull market coming?

Is there follow-through? We’ll need to observe. But here, the balance of capital has already started to tilt.

Today’s index opened strong and kept rising, with abundant volume. Big tech and the index are moving in sync—that’s real money entering the market. And in the medicine sector, under the volume “siphon,” it actively diverged. The market’s style is undergoing a fierce transition.

Historical volume comparison: before September 24, 2024, the market shrank volume and drifted lower. Volume had once dwindled below 500 billion. On September 24, it suddenly expanded to above 1.5 trillion, and then a new round of行情 started. Today’s situation is somewhat similar, but whether it can sustain depends on whether tomorrow’s volume can stay at that level.

Another detail worth noting: in that September 24行情, when it started, big tech led too—especially optical modules and computing power-related directions. After that it spread across the whole tech sector, and only then did other sectors rotate in. Today’s market looks like a scaled-down version of September 24. But history won’t repeat in a simple way. Today’s volume has expanded, but compared with September 24 there’s still a gap. So you can’t blindly draw parallels—you must stay highly alert.

Impact on style: if tomorrow’s volume continues to expand, trend-following style will take the upper hand; if volume contracts, the momentum/relay style may return. These two styles are not mutually exclusive—they can coexist. The key is that you must know what you’re good at, and you must know what the market has chosen.

From capital flow, today big tech’s trade volume share has risen significantly. This indicates that capital’s flow has moved from high-position medical stocks toward lower-position big tech. Whether this liquidity can sustain depends on whether big tech can show sustained strength. If big tech “goes out” tomorrow, capital will seek new directions again. If big tech continues to strengthen tomorrow, the big tech trend will reinforce itself.

For short-term traders, a style switch is both a challenge and an opportunity. The challenge is that you need to adjust your methods. The opportunity is that a new main theme is being nurtured. Don’t complain about style changes—adapt. The market is always changing; the only thing that doesn’t change is change itself.

III. Theme Fluctuations: Big Tech Wakes Up, Medicine Takes a Nap
**

1. Big Tech: In Sync With the Index, But Watch for Sustainability

From the collective bidding, big tech is resonating with the broader market. With such a huge amount of volume, they’re entering with real money.

On the news front: ceasefire, industrial-chain policy, and the launch of the deepseek expert mode—three layers of positive news stacked together. Big tech saw its first day of unusual moves today.

But there are many directions. Most are oversold rebounds, and within them the strength of each internal branch isn’t the same:

Optical modules: the strongest branch. Core stocks like “Yizhongtian” hit limit-up or surged hard. This sector has earnings support, an industrial trend tailwind, and is favored by institutions. But its price action is more trend-oriented, not suitable for relay trades. Chasing and buying at higher prices can easily get you trapped near a stage top. If you’re bullish on optical modules, a better strategy is to wait for a pullback and buy the dip, not chase limit-ups.

Computing power: the next strongest. With the launch of the deepseek expert mode, the demand for computing power is tangible. But this area has been traded and promoted too many times already, so marginal effects are declining. Today is more of an oversold rebound, and its continuity is uncertain. The core issue for computing power is that trapped-share supply is too heavy—each time it rallies, it runs into sell pressure.

Application end: media, gaming, education, etc.—they also had intraday moves today. But these directions lack core logic support; they’re mostly driven by sentiment. In an environment where volume expands, rotation is normal, but rotation isn’t the main theme.

Semiconductors: not a big price gain, but volume is somewhat expanding. Semiconductors are the core of technology. If big tech truly launches a round of the行情, semiconductors won’t be absent. But semiconductors’ problem is the trapped-share supply is too heavy. Its path is winding, making it more suitable for buying the dip than chasing.

Big tech’s first day of unusual movement today doesn’t allow us to confirm yet who is the main theme. We need to wait until after tomorrow’s divergence—then see who can withstand divergence and who can turn from weak to strong. That will be the real core.

2. Medicine: Active Divergence, Likely Coming to an End

Medicine showed active divergence today. “Jin Yao” closed without re-closing to the board. “Wanbang” dove. For this direction, it’s very likely over.

Looking back at the medicine journey—this was a complete cycle, from sprouting to blooming, and from blooming into withering.

There are two possible paths for medicine’s next evolution: one is a direct retreat as A-kill sells down; the other is high-level consolidation with repeated distribution. No matter which it is, for people without the first-hand position, it’s not suitable to participate. The “fish head” and “fish tail” are already eaten by others—you insist on biting the fish bones, and you’re likely to get your throat stuck by the spines.

3. Other Directions: Observe Only, Don’t Participate

Besides big tech and medicine, there were some sporadic unusual moves today, such as metals, PCB, and so on. But for these directions, either they’re driven by news, or they’re oversold rebounds—continuity is uncertain. My principle is: watch each direction one by one, and trade each direction one by one. So here, it’s observation only—not participation.

4. Macro Judgment

From a macro perspective, the market is at a crossroads of a style switch. One is big tech, in resonance with the broader market. Whether it can sustain depends on tomorrow’s volume. The other is a pure sentiment relay direction—whether it can regain dominance of discourse in an environment where volume increases significantly. As for how the market chooses specifically, we’ll see from the board tomorrow.

For short-term traders, the best strategy right now isn’t to guess the direction, but to wait for it. Wait for divergence to pass. Wait for the main theme to become clear. Wait for nodes to appear—then take action.

IV. Node Maze: The Value for Money Is No Longer High, New Growth Awaits Divergence

1. The Node for “Jin Yao”

“Jin Yao” has cycled through two rounds of turnover. Today’s third major divergence board failure means there’s already no suitable entry timing. Even if it turns from weak to strong again, at this height the room is limited, and the value for money is not high.

Risk-reward calculation: 7+1 relative to only 7 boards offers just 10% upside space, while failure could pull back more than 10%. The risk-reward ratio is close to 1:1—so it’s not worth it. In trading, what we pursue is a high risk-reward ratio: use relatively smaller risk to gain relatively larger returns. When the risk-reward approaches 1:1, this trade basically has no participation value.

2. The Node for a New Direction

For the newly launched directions, they moved today. Tomorrow will be the expectation of divergence. Avoid debating it on the divergence day as much as possible: if it’s an opportunity, you won’t be able to run away; if it isn’t, you’re likely to fall into a pit.

The correct approach is: after divergence passes, look for who can turn from weak to strong—that’s the confirmation point. The first unusual move is a probe; the first divergence is a shakeout; only when divergence turns into agreement is confirmation. This rhythm applies to any main theme.

3. Levels of Nodes

Many people ask me how to judge nodes. I’ll tell you: nodes have three layers:

Broad market nodes: the comprehensive state of index, volume, and sentiment. Today the broader market expanded volume, but the index opened high and then fell back—so it isn’t a good broader-market node.

Sector nodes: is the theme rising strongly or retreating? Is it divergence or agreement? Today medicine had major divergence, so it isn’t a good sector node; big tech’s first day of unusual movement is also not a good sector node.

Individual stock nodes: which stage the stock is in—probe point, confirmation point, or exit point. Today “Jin Yao” is an exit point, not a buy point.

Only when the three nodes resonate together is it the best time to make a move.

4. Node Summary

Today is not a buy point for any direction. Stay in cash and wait.

Waiting isn’t doing nothing—it’s observing, thinking, and preparing. Wait for the next broader-market node to appear, wait for the next sector node confirmation, wait for the next individual-stock node to arrive. Then, pull the trigger.

V. Glimmer of Individual Stocks: Observe Only, Don’t Reach Out

Big tech’s surge into chaos and medicine’s major divergence show that because the nodes weren’t right, changes in individual stocks’ strength are obvious.

There are many limit-up boards in big tech today—but who is the core? You can only tell after tomorrow’s divergence. The first limit-up today isn’t necessarily the leader; the one with the largest order backlog today isn’t necessarily the leader either. The leader is made during divergence—not selected during agreement.

Looking back at every major行情: whether it’s 2023’s artificial intelligence or 2024’s low-altitude economy, the leader was only confirmed after the first divergence. First unusual move—many heroes rise together; first divergence—sand sifted by the big waves; when divergence turns into agreement—true dragon appears. So don’t rush to guess who is the dragon today; let the market tell you.

For the medicine direction: “Jin Yao” failed its board, but it doesn’t necessarily mean an A-kill. If tomorrow it can trade with a red close in consolidation, that would suggest there will be more back-and-forth, or that it’s starting to move into a trend. Of course, it could also reverse and re-close—those are all “take note and track” points.

There are no individual stocks worth focusing on today. Being in cash is the best choice.

Someone says, being in cash is uncomfortable. I understand, but you don’t need to trade every day. In 250 trading days a year, the opportunities truly worth acting on might be fewer than 60. The remaining 190 days are all waiting; waiting is part of trading, and an important part. And if you can participate in those 60 times and catch them all, compounding can easily get you to 100x or more. No matter what, there’s no need to worry about missing it—you just might not understand it.

VI. Tomorrow’s Scenarios: Two Scripts, Just Wait for the Flowers to Bloom

Before entering tomorrow’s scenario planning, first mention a detail that’s easy to overlook.

Yesterday, sectors like chemical products, PCB, and organic silicon had many limit-up moves in batches. The scene was lively. Some people thought a new main theme had arrived, and they even did overnight reviews, preparing to relay on the next day. What happened? Today, most of those sectors failed to hold their boards, and none of the directions showed sustained strength. Those who chased in yesterday for the most part are now hanging on the trees and blowing in the wind today.

Does this scene feel familiar?

In every retreat phase, a batch of “one-day tour” themes will jump out to lure you with limit-up boards. They look fierce, but they’re short-lived. Because they don’t have enough node support, and they don’t have enough capital consensus—they’re just noise in a retreat phase.

So today, big tech having a batch of limit-ups—how similar is that to yesterday’s chemical products and PCB? Same climax from the first day of unusual movement; same full-screen limit-up boards; same news-driven nature. Can you guarantee it isn’t the next “one-day tour”?

I can’t, so I won’t chase in today.

Based on this observation, back to tomorrow’s scenario planning:

Script A: Big tech continues to expand volume, and the index challenges 4000 points

Condition: intraday volume forecast for the whole day exceeds 2.5 trillion at the open
Execution: style officially switches to trend-following; branches like optical modules may show sustained strength
Response: trend style isn’t suitable for relay; you can wait for pullbacks to buy dips rather than chasing highs
Observation indicators: the opening follow-through of core stocks like “Yizhongtian”

Script B: Big tech shrinks and differentiates on volume, and the relay direction leads the market style

Condition: volume quickly shrinks to below 2 trillion
Execution: big tech becomes a one-day tour; capital may rotate back to medicine or to a new direction
Response: observe the repair strength after “Jin Yao” fails its board—this determines whether the medicine cycle is truly over
Observation indicators: the opening price of “Jin Yao” and its走势 in the first half hour, and whether the medicine direction has any subordinates that反核

Remember: Don’t rush to chase another direction when one direction has just ended. In a retreat phase, one wave is lower than the next; when you’ve just climbed out of one pit, don’t jump into another pit immediately.

Outside the window, it’s all noise; inside the nodes, that’s where the real truth lies. Only if you can endure the loneliness can you wait for prosperity.

As for today’s Tao County, there aren’t many people willing to lay their true feelings out, and even fewer willing to stop and listen. If you feel my sharing is worth a look, feel free to hit follow. In this vast sea of people, we’ve at least recognized each other’s faces.

Thanks to: @顺势而为1126 @郭甲第 @Zx981216 @上善若水2017 @忠诚纯粹纪律信仰0056 @ST攒劲 @探险王者 @炒呀炒 @少帅LX @云门心情 @威廉斯顿顿 @股学社 @男二板 @顺势而为1313 @V型猎人 @大银念金刚 @醉爱小龙虾 @橘子2026 @淘鑫套利 @炒黄牛 @新得 @彩彩001 @心若菩提W @小烟斗abc @除心中障 @炒级无敌勇 @金刚无畏 @人生海海2025 @如意2008 @心光普照 @粟行沧海 @清爽海风 @威廉王子ZHOU @剑海玲珑 @大道顺势 @股海养老魏 @潜龙在渊2026 @六脉神剑股份 @Freechaser @点星 @迷人的夜晚 @云起666 @漫步山巅 @dggghubxe @章三丰 @章君 @LJ一灯 @封涨停板 @香樟王 @钵仔潴 @Kiki4577 @天道者也 @套套利 @木已成舟18 @一股晨风 @主妇 @kelvinwx @果壳里的世界 @万籁俱静 @CJ先生 @赛满红 @林三渡劫 @阳阴之道 @我要实现一个小目标 @朱大祥166 @驭龙之巅 @spiritluna @lichunle @雨花区之狼 @靜中殺氣 @亲斤哥 @五年之约加油 @打板小哥哥 @思源168168 @书里迷了路 @流金岁月1188 @Miro123 @一芃天天快乐 @imp183 @森哥小道 @baijie白杰 @冉冉清晨 @贾文青 @菜鸟一小枚 @渐修之路 @荷采采 @G带着信仰出发 @红色的生活 @李森焱 @连娜 @映山红红红红 @道彰 @T轩炒股 @小博取 @猫猫发财猫 @008风 @初来乍到啊 @逻辑数字 等伙伴的打赏。

As my followers grow, as a practitioner I have limited energy, and going forward it may be hard for me to respond to everything. But I will leave more time for the people who follow me. After all, in this world, every pursuit should be mutual.

Thanks as well to: @淘鑫套利 @逻辑数字 @忠诚纯粹纪律信仰0056 @我是大赢家888 @頖縌 @天高云淡333 @顺势而为1126 @Zx981216 @打板小哥哥 @小资金有大梦想 @悟不语 @永敢向前 @记得活在当下 @探险王者 @贾文青 @Miss王小姐 @渡己归心 @云起666 @望白云 @郭甲第 @大道顺势 等伙伴的加油。

I would also like to thank you all here. I’ll remember it in my heart. You’re here, and I’m here too. When you follow, I respond. And that’s enough.

· The market has risk; investment involves caution. The content of this article is only the author’s own market review and viewpoint sharing, and does not constitute any actual investment advice, guidance, or promise.

· Any specific stocks mentioned in the article (such as “Jin Yao,” “Wanbang,” “Yizhongtian,” etc.) are only used as case analysis and logical scenario planning — they are in no way recommendations to buy or sell. Investors who act on this do so at their own risk.

· Short-term trading experiences extreme volatility and is affected by multiple factors such as market sentiment, capital, and policies, so there is a very high level of uncertainty. Historical rules such as “the 4-board curse” may not repeat in the future, and past successful cases do not predict future outcomes.

· Each investor should make independent judgments and be responsible for every trade in their own account. Don’t blindly follow the crowd, especially after a stock has already risen significantly—chasing higher prices carries enormous risk.