Trump's approval rating hits a new low! Even the Hamptons estate's "backyard" is turning "red to blue"?

Caixin News Network March 25 (Editor Xiaoxiang) A new Ipsos poll has found that, affected by soaring fuel prices and widespread public dissatisfaction with the Iranian war they launched, U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating is currently at its lowest point since he returned to the White House.

Meanwhile, a special election for Florida’s 87th congressional district, the results of which were released Tuesday evening local time, show that the seat in the congressional district where Trump’s private residence, Mar-a-Lago, is located was also taken by the Democrats. Many industry insiders view this as a key barometer before the November midterm elections……

Under the fighting in the Middle East, Trump’s approval rating hits a new low

An Ipsos poll completed this Monday over four days shows that only 36% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, down from 40% in last week’s poll for the same item.

Since February 28, when the United States and Israel launched a joint strike against Iran, as gasoline prices across the country have surged, Americans’ evaluations of Trump’s performance in economic governance and cost of living have deteriorated significantly. In this poll, only 25% of respondents approved of how Trump has handled the issue of cost of living, a topic that had been at the core of his 2024 presidential campaign.

The poll shows that only 29% of people nationwide approve of Trump’s economic governance. This approval rating sets the lowest record during his two terms as president, and it is also below any economic approval rating recorded for his predecessor, Biden. Voters’ concerns about the economy—especially rising cost of living—were precisely an important factor in Biden’s defeat in 2024. During his campaign at the time, Trump had promised to create a vibrant economic environment.

Analysts said the poll indicates Trump is facing strong public opposition.

Trump’s overall approval rating at the start of his term was 47%, and it has remained around 40% since last summer. Although his overall approval rating has now fallen to its lowest point since his return to the White House, it is still higher than the low point of 33% during his first term, and slightly higher than Biden’s low point of 35%.

But for a president who once promised to avoid “stupid wars” when he took office, the Iran war may further change the situation. The survey shows that currently only 35% of Americans support U.S. airstrikes against Iran, down from 37% last week. About 61% of people do not support these airstrikes, while the figure was 59% last week. Early polls were conducted immediately after the first Israel-U.S. strike, when many Americans were still learning the details.

According to the latest poll, about 46% of respondents said that, in the long run, the Iran war will make the United States less secure. Only 26% of respondents believe it will make the country safer; the rest think it will make no significant difference either way.

Since this conflict began, the average price of U.S. gasoline has risen by about $1 per gallon, because the fighting has severely reduced the transport of oil from the Middle East to other parts of the world. Experts warn that persistently high fuel prices will ultimately hit broader areas of the economy.

Is even the area where Mar-a-Lago is located “turning from red to blue”?

In addition to the latest poll numbers, another Tuesday development that could be striking to the White House and Republicans may come from Trump’s “backyard,” the Mar-a-Lago area.

It was reported that a special election for Florida’s 87th congressional district announced results on Tuesday. The Democratic candidate, Emily Gregory, successfully pulled off a comeback, defeating the Republican candidate Jon Maples, who was endorsed by Trump, with a vote margin of more than 2 percentage points, to win the seat in that district. And Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate is located in that district.

Because Republicans hold an overwhelming majority in Florida’s state legislature, this unexpected Republican loss actually has little impact on the state’s political landscape on its own. But ahead of the November congressional midterm elections, it is still a key warning sign for Republicans—when Republicans will work hard to maintain their majority seats in the federal House and Senate. At the same time, it is clearly a victory with especially strong symbolic significance for Democrats……

It is worth noting that Trump and Republicans previously won Florida’s 87th congressional district easily in 2024—with a large margin of about 19 percentage points. The district covers Palm Beach—during his first term, Trump declared this area his primary residence. Previously, he had moved his primary residence from Trump Tower in Manhattan to Mar-a-Lago.

For Trump, who had strongly backed Maples, this loss also appears quite “embarrassing.” On Monday, he even posted on social media to support Maples, saying that he was offering the Republican candidate “complete and total support!”

This loss may also make Republicans’ plans to redraw congressional district lines in Florida more complicated. The plan was originally intended to win Republicans more seats. That’s because dispersing Republican voters into more districts could lower their average partisan lean—if Democrats perform particularly well in a given year, those districts would be more easily won by them. Political scientists describe this rare scenario as “dummymander”—that is, attempting to manipulate district lines, which ultimately causes more harm to the mapmaker than to their opponent.

According to the campaign website, Gregory runs a fitness center for new mothers and pregnant women. Like many successful Democratic candidates during Trump’s second term, she emphasized the issue of cost of living and promised to “fight for a healthier, more affordable Florida so families can thrive here.”

Gregory’s win also continues a series of victories or performances beyond expectations by Democrats in non-election years and special elections over the past few months. As polls show voters growing increasingly dissatisfied with how Trump handles the economy, many Democratic candidates have sensed an opportunity across federal, state, and local elections at all levels. According to statistics, since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, 29 seats in state legislatures nationwide have already been taken from Republicans by Democratic candidates.

Heather Williams, chair of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said in a statement: “Mar-a-Lago has just turned from red to blue, and that should make Republicans feel nervous in the midterm elections.”

(Caixin News Network Xiaoxiang)

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Edited by: Guo Jian