Barclays: Iron ore miners price commodities below spot levels

2026-04-07 18:41:19

Investing.com - A Barclays analysis shows that iron ore stocks are priced below the commodity’s current spot price. Rio Tinto’s implied price is $85 per ton, Vale’s is $92 per ton, BHP’s is $93 per ton, while the spot price is $110 per ton.

The share prices of diversified miners rose 4-9% month-over-month, while iron ore spot prices stayed flat, resulting in implied iron ore prices rising 5-9% month-over-month. Rio Tinto outperformed its peers due to its exposure in the aluminum business.

Among copper stocks, Antofagasta remains the most highly valued, with an implied price of $6.91 per pound, a permanent premium of 23% over the spot price, down from last week’s $15,517 per ton. The implied price premium for Anglo American Resources is 13% over spot, at $14,005 per ton, up from last week’s $13,874. Freeport-McMoRan’s implied price is in line with spot, while Glencore’s implied copper price is at a 3% discount versus spot.

Boliden shows the lowest implied copper price, at a 51% discount to spot, or $6,286 per ton, compared with $4,763 per ton the previous week. This reflects the rise in gold prices and the stock price rebound after the Garpenberg mine stopped production. BHP’s implied copper price is at a 20% discount to spot, at $5.47 per pound.

For precious metals, Hochschild and Endeavour price gold below the spot price, at $3,425 per ounce and $3,744 per ounce respectively, compared with last week’s $3,516 per ounce and $3,849 per ounce. As share prices rose 7-8% month-over-month while gold prices rose 3%, implied gold and silver prices for precious metal stocks fell across the board.

In aluminum, Norsk Hydro’s pricing for London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum is 11% below spot, at $3,112 per ton, compared with $2,777 per ton last week. South32’s pricing is in line with spot, while last week it was at a 2% discount. After the EGA smelter, with annual capacity of 1.6 million tons, was shut down due to the Iran conflict, both companies’ share prices rose 13-15% month-over-month, and implied aluminum prices rose 12%.

This article was translated with the assistance of AI. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.