The three major stock index futures all declined, and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf were repeatedly attacked.

1. Ahead of the U.S. stock market open on Thursday, March 12, all three U.S. stock index futures were down across the board. As of the time of writing, Dow Jones futures were down 0.86%, S&P 500 index futures were down 0.66%, and Nasdaq-100 futures were down 0.65%.

2. As of the time of writing, Germany’s DAX was down 0.15%, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.38%, France’s CAC 40 was down 0.57%, and Europe’s STOXX 50 was down 0.83%.

3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude was up 6.85%, trading at $93.23 per barrel. Brent crude was up 7.00%, trading at $98.42 per barrel.

Market news

Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell slightly, indicating that the scale of layoffs is moderate. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. declined last week, showing that corporate layoffs remain limited in scope. The U.S. Department of Labor said on Thursday that for the week ending March 7, initial claims were 213k, down from 214k the previous week and also below the market expectation of 215k. Continuing claims for the week ending February 28 fell to 1.85 million, down from 1.87 million the previous week. Before the initial-claims data released on Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor had released a weaker-than-expected jobs report the week before: last month, employment fell by 92k jobs, after rising by 126k jobs in January. However, the relatively milder initial claims data suggest that companies are more inclined to retain employees rather than carry out large-scale layoffs.

Persian Gulf oil tankers were attacked one after another, escalating the Middle East shipping crisis. Iran launched another round of attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf, causing oil prices to temporarily return above $100 per barrel and intensifying what the world’s energy watchdog called “the largest oil-market disruption in history.” Attacks on two vessels near the coast of Iraq led to the suspension of operations at the country’s oil terminals. This escalating situation may make global shipowners even more reluctant to consider transiting the critical Strait of Hormuz. The longer the conflict lasts, the greater the impact on the energy market. Fuel prices are already surging, and in parts of the world there are even shortages. Saudi Arabia and other Middle East producers in recent days have been forced to cut oil production, and are racing to implement alternative plans to export crude oil via routes other than the Strait of Hormuz.

IEA sounds the highest alert: the Middle East conflict is creating the greatest chaos in the oil market in history, with global daily supply dropping by 8 million barrels this month. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that Iran-related conflicts are bringing unprecedented turbulence to the oil market, affecting about 7.5% of global oil supply, with an even more significant impact on the export end. In a monthly report released on Thursday, the IEA noted, “The Middle East conflict is causing the largest scale of supply disruption in global oil markets in history.” The day before, the IEA’s member countries had reached an agreement to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves—an unprecedented move—aiming to stabilize the market. After attacks by the U.S. and Israel against Iran on February 28, international oil prices surged sharply, and tankers suspended passage through the key shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz, one after another. The IEA estimates that last year about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products were transported through the strait, but flows have since dropped by more than 90% at a steep pace.

Finding a route to tame oil prices! Trump’s team meets with Russian representatives, focusing on the global energy crisis and the possibility of unblocking Russian oil. Dmitryev, a special representative of the President of Russia, said that he held talks with U.S. officials in Florida, and that the core agenda was the global energy market crisis. Dmitryev wrote on Thursday, “Many countries today, especially the United States, are starting to recognize more deeply the key and systemic role that Russian oil and gas play in maintaining stability in the global economy, as well as recognizing the ineffectiveness and destructive nature of sanctions against Russia.” The U.S. President’s special envoy Witkov confirmed that he had met with Dmitryev in Florida. Trump’s son-in-law Kushner and senior White House adviser Gruenbergbaum also took part in the talks with the Russian delegation. Dmitryev disclosed that the two sides also discussed “several prospective projects that could help promote the restoration of U.S.-Russia relations.”

Black swan in aviation triggered by fighting in the Middle East: global capacity evaporates by 10%, and ticket prices on Asia-Europe routes surge by 80%. As the increasingly expanded war with Iran disrupts global tourism, the Asia-Europe routes have been hit particularly hard, leading to a sharp rise in ticket prices and leaving travelers facing record-high fares around the Easter travel peak. Since the conflict began on February 28, the region has already caused more than 46k flights to be canceled. This crisis wiped out up to 10% of global airline capacity earlier this month, becoming the biggest disruption to the aviation industry since the COVID-19 pandemic. The sudden reduction in capacity caused by airport closures in the Gulf region has pushed up fares on some key routes. Based on an analysis of Google Flights data as of March 12, in the past two weeks, round-trip economy-class tickets from Sydney to London from April 3 to 10 have risen by more than 80%, while business-class tickets on the same route have increased by about 40%.

Comparable to the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic storm! This indicator suggests that emerging-market currencies may face a massive shock in the short term. A key options-pricing indicator shows that as the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, traders are preparing for further weakening of emerging-market currencies over the coming month. The emerging-market currency index tracked by JPMorgan—the one-month risk reversal indicator (a derivative used to measure the cost of downside protection for currencies relative to upside gains)—has recently surged sharply. The market is growing increasingly concerned that the conflict being prolonged will keep pushing up oil prices. Currently, this indicator is above the level of one-year contracts. Such a phenomenon—short-term option protection costs being higher than long-term—has been extremely rare. The depth of this inversion has pushed the spread between one-month and one-year risk reversals (the difference in downside protection costs between the short term and the long term) to the highest level since widespread global market sell-offs triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Individual stock news

Li Auto (LI.US) reported 2025 annual net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, down 85.8% year over year. Li Auto’s fourth-quarter vehicle sales revenue was 27.3 billion yuan (RMB, same below), down 36.1% from 42.6 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2024, and up 5.4% from 25.9 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2025. Total revenue was 28.8 billion yuan, down 35.0% from 44.3 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2024, and up 5.2% from 27.4 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2025. Net profit was 213k yuan, versus net profit of 3.5 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2024; net loss in the third quarter of 2025 was 214k yuan.

EHang Smart (EH.US) reported total revenue for fiscal year 2025 of 509.5 million yuan, a record high. EHang Smart’s total revenue reached 509.5 million yuan, up 11.7% year over year, setting a new revenue high; net loss was 231.0 million yuan, while net loss in the same period last year was 230.0 million yuan. In terms of specific business, the sales and delivery number of its electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft reached 221 units, also a record high. This includes 215 units of the EH216 series and 6 units of the VT35.

Futu (FUTU.US) Q4 revenue grew 45.3% year over year, while full-year net profit grew 101.9% year over year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Futu’s total revenue was HK$215k (about $827 million), up 45.3% year over year; under Non-GAAP, net profit was HK$92k (about $444 million), up 77.0% year over year. By revenue contribution category, in Q4 trading commission and fee income was HK$126k, interest income was HK$46k, and other income (including wealth management, corporate services, etc.) was HK$20.2M. For full-year 2025, Futu’s total revenue reached HK$624.4M (about $6.44B), up 68.1% year over year; under Non-GAAP, net profit reached HK$3.46B (about $2.77B), up 101.9% year over year.

“Lobster fever” sweeps the globe—Huang Renxun blasts the open-source model! Nvidia (NVDA.US) bets big on an “AI bull market” narrative with its full-stack ambitions. With Anthropic launching Claude Cowork and OpenClaw (the so-called “lobster”), AI agents capable of executing tasks autonomously becoming popular worldwide, Nvidia—the “AI chip superpower”—wants to ride this wave of AI agent hype. The company has already released its open-source large model “Nemotron 3 Super,” built specifically for extremely large-scale AI agents, aiming to run ultra-complex agentic AI systems in a scalable way. On the Pinchbench benchmark, Nemotron 3 Super is arguably streets ahead and firmly sits at No. 1 among open-source solutions. On OpenClaw task success rate, it scored 85.6%, with performance nearly matching two closed-source models: Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.4.

Another giant crashes in electric vehicles! Honda (HMC.US) announced a reassessment of its electrification route and booked $15.7 billion in losses to restructure its strategy. Honda Motor announced recently that, due to a reconfiguration of its electric-vehicle development strategy, the company expects to shoulder massive costs of up to 2.5 trillion yen (about $15.7 billion), making it yet another well-known automaker hit amid setbacks in the global shift toward electrification. The Japanese automaker disclosed on Thursday that it will cancel development and launch plans for three electric-vehicle models originally planned for the North American market. For the fiscal year ending next March, the company expects to record losses ranging from 270 billion to 570 billion yen. This estimated scale places Honda alongside two other automakers—Stellantis NV (STLA.US), which incurred over €22 billion (about $25 billion) in expenses due to a strategic shift, and Ford Motor (F.US), which booked $19.5 billion in losses due to business restructuring.

Important economic data and event previews

04:30 a.m. Beijing time the next day: U.S. Federal Reserve balance sheet as of March 11.

00:00 a.m. Beijing time the next day: the Federal Reserve releases its quarterly financial report, and Fed governor Bowman attends talks on “Basel III and bank capital requirements.”

TBD: European institutions related to oil and natural gas supply will hold a meeting regarding the situation in the Middle East.

Earnings previews

Friday early morning: Adobe (ADBE.US), Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US)

Friday pre-market: Rili Technology (RLX.US)