Tesla delivery weakness may become the new normal; investors focus on projects like Terafab

Although Elon Musk wants to stake Tesla’s future on artificial intelligence, he still needs to fund these ambitions by selling cars— and the auto business is becoming increasingly difficult.

Analysts estimate that Tesla may have delivered about 372,160 vehicles in the past three months. Despite this figure being up about 11% year over year, it is still at a relatively low level compared with the company’s recent quarterly delivery volumes. Sales at the beginning of last year were weighed down by multiple factors, including a strong backlash sparked by Musk’s appointment in the Trump administration and production suspensions related to a refresh of the Model Y, the company’s best-selling vehicle.

A vehicle transport driver unloads a Tesla Model Y at a Tesla store in Colma, California.

Analysts expect Tesla’s sales to be significantly below recent quarterly peaks—when the company’s single-quarter deliveries were close to 500k.

As global demand for electric vehicles weakens, with Tesla increasingly shifting its focus to artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and robotics, and with the U.S. market no longer offering federal tax incentives for plug-in vehicles, slower sales may become Tesla’s new normal. In addition, Tesla is gradually phasing out lower-selling high-end electric vehicles Model S and Model X, further shrinking its already aging product lineup, while its competition worldwide is increasing.

“If they can prove their data stays stable without tax credits—at least from the delivery numbers—I think that’s a victory,” said Gene Munster, a managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management.

Munster said investors will assess demand after the loss of tax incentives based on how the company performs during this period.

Earlier this year, European sales were still low, but they had started to stabilize. The China market improved markedly; according to preliminary data from the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla’s Shanghai plant saw February sales surge 91%.

Tesla store in Marseille, France; the touchscreen of Tesla electric vehicles.

Enthusiasm around Musk’s future business plans drove Tesla’s stock price to a record high in December, but those gains were partially unwound in early this year.

Investors are increasingly inclined to overlook auto sales data and instead prioritize progress on Tesla projects such as autonomous-driving taxi services, Cybercab, and the Optimus robot. As long as the electric-vehicle business can stay stable or achieve modest growth, that business will still have value in supporting Musk’s artificial intelligence ambitions.

Garrett Nelson, senior vice president of equity research at CFRA, said what he is watching is whether the company can deliver on these ambitious product plans and timelines, while also closely monitoring Tesla’s plans to increase capital expenditures.

“The focus is not on delivery volumes, but on a more macro level—for example, Terafab announcements, and this round of spending expansion Tesla is undertaking,” Nelson said. “Concerns about the spending surge are indeed weighing on market sentiment toward the company.”

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