Pork sells at "ginger and garlic prices" — Industry chain looks forward to a breakthrough — How can pork prices break out of the "pig cycle?

“Pork sold at ‘ginger-garlic prices’”“Losing money on every pig sold”… Recently, domestic pork prices in China have continued to fall, drawing widespread attention in the market.

As a core category that affects both people’s livelihood security and the stability of the agricultural economy, fluctuations in pork prices move the entire industrial chain, from upstream to downstream.

Why is pork pricing continuing to bottom out? How should all parties respond? And how should the hog market get out of the cycle dilemma of “big surges and big plunges,” to achieve healthy development? Reporters from Economic Information Daily recently conducted on-site investigations in major hog-producing areas including Shandong, Henan, and Hunan.

Straight to the point: Pork prices keep “bottoming out”

“Five-flower pork per jin is 7 yuan, pure lean meat per jin is 6.5 yuan.” On the early morning of March 28, at Beijing’s Xinfadi Agricultural Trade Wholesale Market, a vendor was calling out to drum up business: “After the Spring Festival, pork prices have kept falling. Now these prices are cheaper than many vegetables—lower even than the prices of ginger and garlic.”

The reporter’s recent research in multiple places found that hog prices have continued to “bottom out,” already hitting the lowest level in recent years.

In Yihui Industrial Co., Ltd. in Yiyang City, Hunan Province, vehicles transporting hogs to slaughterhouses entered and left in an orderly fashion, but on the face of company负责人 Huang Dan, worries were hard to hide: “We can sell them now, but we can’t sell at a good price. Since July 2025, the ex-farm price has been over 7 yuan per jin, but it has kept falling all the way. Now it’s only a little over 5 yuan.”

Based on monitoring of 23 county-level wholesale markets and collection points in Hunan Province, after March began, pork prices started to fall faster; the current average provincial hog price is 10.78 yuan per kilogram, down 6.83% month over month and down 29.54% year over year, the lowest price since 2019.

Latest monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that in the country’s 30 monitoring provinces during the third week of March, hog prices fell in all of them. The average hog price was 11.05 yuan per kilogram, down 28% year over year. This price is the lowest since June 2018.

A symposium recently organized by relevant departments of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs with hog breeding enterprises pointed out that, influenced by factors such as the drop in consumption demand after the holidays, hog prices have fallen and have entered the category of an “overly rapid decline” early-warning range.

On the one hand, consumers enjoy the benefits of low-priced pork at菜市场. On the other hand, many breeders are helpless in the face of the risk of losses. “Losing money on every pig we sell; quitting is not甘心, but sticking with it is unbearable.” This is the most common lament the reporter heard during the investigations.

A hog breeder in a certain county in Henan, Ge Shenglu, has been involved in hog breeding for many years, yet he now finds himself stuck in a dilemma. “The price of live hog pork is currently between 4.7 and 6 yuan per jin. Even if we don’t count labor costs, breeding a pig still loses more than 300 yuan.” He said that the traditional hog cycle is generally 5 years, but in recent years the规律 of the cycle has become increasingly blurry: “We don’t know when the low point will be over.”

Large-scale breeding cooperatives are also under pressure. In Dezhou City, Shandong Province, Liang Xiaoliang,负责人 of Pingyuan County Baokangbao Livestock and Poultry Breeding Professional Cooperative, said: “In February, we marketed 1,600 hogs, at 12.8 yuan per kilogram. But now the market price is only 10.5 yuan per kilogram, so it can’t even break even.”

The reporter’s research in Shandong found that, based on 120 kilograms of body weight, in hog breeding:

• The盈亏 cost line for self-breeding and self-raising is 13.39 yuan per kilogram;
• The盈亏 cost line for buying piglets for fattening is 13.95 yuan per kilogram.

The pressure of falling hog prices is also transmitted along the industrial chain to the slaughter and processing end. Wang Bowen, general manager of Shao Xiang City Sanwang Industrial Co., Ltd., told the reporter: “Our slaughter volume and meat sales are both down by 20% year over year. In the slaughter business, last year we slaughtered over 1,400 hogs a day; now it’s only around 1,100. For meat processing, some major customers—such as pre-made dishes and large meat processing companies—predict that prices may continue to fall in the future, so their procurement enthusiasm isn’t high either.”

Worth noting is that, affected by the situation in the Middle East, feed prices have already shown an upward trend, and breeding profits are being squeezed further.

Zhong Changyin, general manager of Henan Zhengyang Guangming Pig Industry Co., Ltd., worked out the numbers for the reporter: “Recently, rising oil prices and energy prices have increased freight costs. The price of soybean meal has risen to more than 3,000 yuan per ton, leading to higher pork feed costs. At present, each pig is losing about 200 to 300 yuan. If we calculate based on last year’s breeding scale of 6,000 hogs, this year we may lose around 2 million yuan.”

The core causes: Structural issues behind supply-demand imbalance

Why is pork pricing continuing to fall? Many people interviewed believe that this round of falling pork prices is a normal outcome of the hog market’s cyclical adjustment. The core contradiction is the combination of excess supply and weakening demand.

Looking back at the hog market price trends over the past 5 years, the market has gone through two smaller cycles. The impact of pig diseases on the行情 has gradually weakened. Changes in production capacity driven by profit have caused fluctuations in hog prices; the magnitude of those fluctuations has gradually narrowed, and prices have been in a pattern of stabilizing and declining. Because production capacity has been released, the industry’s breeding scale is currently at a historical high.

After the Spring Festival, many large pig farms and small households expanded production capacity, causing continued growth in hog supply.

Ning Yabing, manager of the market department at Henan Wanbang International Agricultural Products Logistics City, analyzed that, in terms of slaughter/marketing timing, affected by the February Spring Festival holiday, many breeding entities have not completed their planned shipment schedules for the period; some hog sources that were not shipped are carried over and sold in a concentrated way in March. Industry monitoring shows that in February, the completion rate of hog shipment plans for domestic sample breeding enterprises was less than 94%. In March, the completion rate increased by 22.54% month over month compared with February, further increasing the stage-wise supply increment and intensifying market supply pressure.

While the supply side continues to operate at a high level, the demand side’s support is insufficient. The reporter learned from Shandong’s Animal Husbandry General Station that after the Spring Festival, slaughter enterprises generally have low procurement willingness, staying at a relatively low level overall. The movement of packaged pork at the terminal is slow; the rate of fresh sales declines. Slaughter enterprises produce based on sales, which reduces the support they provide to hog prices.

“Currently, pork procurement and sales are entering the traditional off-season for consumption. Fresh products have quiet trade flows; after the holiday, dietary structure changes and the market sees more substitute consumption. Overall consumption is at a low point. The hog market is in the ‘bottoming-out’ stage of this cycle, so prices remain in low-level range-bound fluctuations.” Liu Tong, an analyst at the Hunan Province Animal Husbandry and Fisheries Affairs Center, said.

A deeper change lies in long-term adjustments to consumption structure. Data show that China’s share of pork in meat consumption fell from 62.1% in 2018 to 57.8% in 2025; overall demand for pork consumption is decreasing.

Supply-demand imbalance is the “surface,” while structural problems are the “inside.”

“The fundamental reason for this round of price declines is still excess production capacity.” Wu Maisheng, deputy director of the National Hog Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance, said that starting in September last year, relevant authorities held talks with leading companies nationwide and required reducing the capacity of breeding sows and banning second-cycle fattening. But because large enterprises and group companies have higher capacity, with high fixed investment and operating costs, reducing capacity faces certain pressure.

Path to break the deadlock: Promote healthy industry development by balancing the short and long term

In response to hog price declines caused by mismatched supply and demand, the policy side is releasing strong “backstopping” signals.

A symposium organized by relevant departments of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs with hog breeding enterprises requires that each hog breeding enterprise strictly implement production capacity regulation measures, scientifically arrange production and operations, and orderly reduce the number of breeding sows kept, as well as reasonably control the number of hogs marketed for slaughter, so that supply and demand can better match.

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with departments such as the Ministry of Finance, launched the first round of 2026 central government storage and procurement of frozen pork. The total quantity is 10k tons. In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, proposed lowering the regulated target for the number of breeding sows kept to around 36.5 million head, and requiring enterprises to reduce their annual hog shipment volume.

Regarding future pork price trends, industry consensus is that official storage and reserve procurement will stabilize market sentiment to some extent. It is expected that in the short term, there is limited room for hog prices to fall further; prices may mainly continue to grind at the bottom through range-bound movement. However, constrained by strong supply and weak demand, risks such as increases falling short of expectations and periodic pullbacks still need to be watched. The market still needs to gradually achieve price stabilization and a rebound amid a balance of supply and demand.

During capacity adjustment, how can both short-term stability and long-term development be addressed?

For most small and medium-sized breeders, scientific self-rescue and rational response are key.

“For now, pork prices are depressed, and small and medium-sized breeders are greatly affected. Some breeders eliminate all sows and switch to other lines of business. We advise breeders to reasonably arrange their breeding plans, reduce the number of animals kept, and avoid risks.” A负责人 in the animal husbandry division of a certain county’s agriculture and rural affairs bureau in Henan said.

Many listed pig companies are also taking proactive actions, coping with downward hog price pressure through cost reduction and efficiency improvement and proactive capacity reduction.

It is understood that a large hog breeding enterprise in central China reduced costs and improved efficiency by optimizing feed formulations, promoting intelligent feeding, adjusting the production capacity schedule, and other measures. It also used futures to hedge ingredient price risks. At the same time, it actively responded to capacity regulation policies by taking measures such as proactive production reduction, lowering average slaughter/marketing weight, and stopping construction projects to ensure stable hog price operation.

In the long run, how can China’s hog industry break free from the cycle trap of “big surges and big plunges” and achieve healthy development? In the view of interviewed experts, the key is to push the hog industry’s transformation from “scale expansion” to “quality improvement,” achieving high-quality development.

An expert at the Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Wang Cheng, suggested focusing on breeding hogs with high reproductive capacity, high survival rates, and strong disease resistance. Using fewer sows to support the same slaughter/marketing scale can reduce costs and improve efficiency from the source. Improve support services such as insurance, credit, and technology, and guide farms to scientifically arrange replenishment and marketing schedules to stabilize industry development expectations. In addition, develop featured segments such as black pigs, native pigs, and ecological pigs, aiming at mid-to-high-end consumption and specialty catering, forming a competitive pattern distinct from ordinary pork.

As someone who has worked in the hog industry for nearly 30 years, Liu Yong,负责人 of Shandong Lianxiang Zhiorong Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Technology Co., Ltd., said he still can maintain resolve and won’t follow the crowd to eliminate pigs just because hog prices are in the bottoming-out period. “With trends like population aging, fewer children, and diversification in meat consumption markets, total demand for pork will decrease, but the pursuit of high-quality pork will not change. In the future, companies like ours need to compete in a differentiated way with leading players in the industry. We won’t compete on quantity; we’ll compete on quality.” Liu Yong said.

Wang Cheng and other experts said that when doing the “subtraction” of capacity, it’s not simply “reduce numbers kept and reduce shipments,” but rather reduce low-efficiency capacity, reduce overcapacity, and reduce internal inefficiencies. When doing the “addition” of benefits, the core is to add efficiency, add quality, add value, and add confidence. Only by shifting from “making money by scale” to “making money through technology, quality, and branding” can China’s hog industry truly get out of cycle fluctuations and achieve high-quality development characterized by stable production, better supply, increased efficiency, and benefits for the public.（Reporter 班娟娟 王文博 叶婧 马意翀 周勉）

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            Meat price
                                                            Pork