Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

ME News message: On April 4 (UTC+8), the United States released its non-farm payroll report on Friday, showing the country added 178,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations. At the same time, February’s data was revised from the initially estimated decrease of 92,000 to a decrease of 133,000. Against the backdrop of a reduced probability of Fed rate cuts in 2026, the report provided short-term support for the U.S. dollar. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “quick win” script for Trump is now heading toward collapse. The market’s even more critical test is also on the way: the first CPI after the outbreak is set to be released, and inflation could surge. Some have warned, “This is not the time to trade.” Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all Beijing time): Monday 22:00, the U.S. March ISM non-manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00, the U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks on monetary policy; Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30, the U.S. initial jobless claims, the U.S. February core PCE price index (year-over-year), the U.S. February personal spending (month-over-month), the final estimate of the U.S. Q4 real GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter rate, the final estimate of the U.S. Q4 real personal consumption expenditures (quarter-over-quarter), the final estimate of the U.S. Q4 core PCE price index (annualized quarter-over-quarter), and the U.S. February core PCE price index (month-over-month); Friday 20:30, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI (year-over-year)/core CPI (year-over-year) and the U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI (month-over-month)/core CPI (month-over-month). Friday 22:00, the initial value of the U.S. April 1-year inflation rate expectation, the initial value of the U.S. April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and the U.S. February factory orders (month-over-month) (Source: PANews)