SpaceX is about to go public, and institutions believe that the commercial aerospace sector is expected to resonate globally in the second quarter.

On April 7, the China Merchants Satellite ETF (159218) saw a bullish move at the open, rising by more than 1% at one point. Over the past five trading days, net fund inflows exceeded 70 million, indicating that capital deployment is accelerating.

According to the latest news, SpaceX plans to officially kick off its first public offering (IPO) roadshow on June 8 this year. If this process proceeds smoothly, it will be the most emblematic capital event in the global commercial space sector. With a latest valuation of $1.75 trillion, it could become the largest IPO project in history. SpaceX’s listing will not only validate the closed-loop capability of the “reusable rockets + satellite internet” business model, but may also drive a systemic reassessment of valuation across the global satellite industry chain—marking that commercial space has officially moved from the “technology validation phase” to the “capital realization phase.”

Capitalization moves by leading global companies are generating significant demonstration effects, and China’s commercial space companies are actively preparing for IPOs. As a domestic leader in liquid rocket engines, Blue Arrow Space has completed multiple rounds of financing. Its Jiqu e (Zhuque) series rockets have repeatedly achieved successful launches and validated the liquid oxygen and methane technical route. During the IPO process, market expectations are that it could become the first private liquid rocket enterprise in China to list on the STAR Market. Relying on the technological background of the Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS Space, with the successful maiden flight of the Lijian-2 and the completion of large-scale production lines, has significantly strengthened its revenue-generating capability, and its IPO application has been accepted. In addition, Galaxy Space, which focuses on manufacturing low-orbit broadband communication satellites, as a core supply-chain company of “China’s Starlink,” has completed the filing for IPO tutoring. The dense actions taken by these companies show that China’s commercial space industry is replicating a growth path of “technological breakthroughs—order execution—capital support,” with an increasingly significant linkage effect between the primary and secondary markets.

Guojin Securities pointed out that the timing window for the SpaceX IPO is becoming clearer. Q2 will be the window when the space photovoltaics/commercial space sector can see catalysts resonate between North America and domestic markets. Investors should actively seize the industrial opportunities brought by growth and event-driven catalysts.

Behind the positive follow-through by domestic companies are multiple catalyst factors in the satellite industry. On the policy front, the state has classified commercial space as a strategic emerging industry. The “14th Five-Year Plan” (15th Five-Year) proposal clearly calls for accelerating the development of aerospace, focusing on key technologies such as reusable launch vehicles, integrated communications-navigation-sensing and computing, etc. Policy guidance has shifted from “encouraging exploration” to “supporting large-scale applications,” providing long-term certainty for industry development.

On the technical innovation front, new domestically developed rockets represented by the Lijian-2 and Zhuque-3 have been making steady progress one after another. Validation of generalized designs, modular production, and reusable technologies has significantly reduced the cost per launch. Large-scale production capacity at an annual output of 20 launches—or even higher frequencies—is taking shape, effectively easing the past “having satellites but no rockets” bottleneck in launch capacity, and laying the physical foundation for organizing a constellation at the “tens of thousands of satellites” scale.

Improvement in launch capacity directly supports the rapid release of downstream demand. China Xingwang’s “GW constellation” and Shanghai Yuanxin’s “Qianfan constellation” have entered the practical constellation-networking stage, and 2026 is expected to bring a launch peak. Meanwhile, C-end and B-end scenarios such as direct-to-cell satellite communications, vehicle-mounted satellite communication, and commercialized applications of remote-sensing data are accelerating their rollout. Market demand is expanding from “government-led” to “mass consumption,” and visibility of industry-chain orders has increased markedly, providing solid support for companies’ revenue growth.

China Merchants Satellite ETF (159218) is closely tracking the CSI Satellite Industry Index. It selects securities of listed companies—no more than 50—that have business involving satellite manufacturing and launches, satellite ground equipment manufacturing, satellite navigation, satellite communications, and other technology R&D and application stages, to reflect the overall performance of securities of listed companies in the satellite industry. “The combined weight of satellite manufacturing + launch基础领域 must not be less than 50%.” Against the backdrop of continuous positive news for rocket launches and satellite manufacturing in the near term, it aligns with the current stage of industry development.

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