European allies believe that the probability of Trump unilaterally withdrawing from NATO is low, and are more concerned about the alliance becoming a mere formality.

European allies are questioning whether Donald Trump will actually allow the United States to withdraw from NATO. But they are still worried that the threats Trump has issued again are weakening the military alliance at a critical, sensitive moment.

As criticism of NATO by the United States continues to escalate, Trump went even further on Wednesday, hinting that he is seriously considering leaving the alliance. Earlier, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio—typically seen as a NATO backer in Washington—criticized NATO’s response to the war in Iran as “very disappointing.”

An official photo at the NATO summit held in The Hague in 2025 shows NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, U.S. President Donald Trump, and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer (front row), along with other leaders.

Although such attitudes are hardly new—Trump and his camp have long attacked NATO allies for “freeloading” and for not being willing to help the United States—officials familiar with discussions among allies told [the outlet] that as Trump deepens his war against Iran and starts looking for people to blame, his anger is creating greater risk for NATO.

Stefan Kornelius, a spokesperson for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, said to reporters in Berlin on Wednesday: “This ever-escalating anger does not help NATO.”

Anonymous officials said that, whether or not Trump ultimately follows through, these attacks are further heightening tensions across the Atlantic alliance and exposing rifts within NATO. At the same time, Europe is struggling to maintain Ukraine’s ability to fight and to resist Russian aggression.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in a statement: “Talk of withdrawing from NATO—even talk of considering taking this step—will cause harm, even if it ultimately is not carried out.”

However, actually leaving NATO is not easy for the United States.

Senior European diplomats and NATO officials said on Wednesday that recently passed legislation bars the U.S. president from withdrawing from NATO without a law passed by Congress or support from two-thirds of the Senate. Other legislation also makes it difficult for him to pull large-scale forces or weapon systems out of Europe.

European allies say these safeguards make it unlikely that Trump could get the United States out of NATO unilaterally. Instead, they are worried that Trump will remain inside NATO, while stating that he will not uphold NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause, or that he will not extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to NATO allies.

If those two pillars are lost, NATO will be exposed to risk.

On Wednesday, Poland’s Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said: “I hope that after the emotions around the U.S. president have passed today, we will move into a calmer moment. Why? Because without the United States, there is no NATO; and the arrival of such a calm situation aligns with our interests.”

For the United States to withdraw from NATO, it must invoke Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. That provision allows member states to withdraw one year after notifying Washington. This means Trump will need to notify his own—when NATO was founded, hardly anyone imagined the United States would withdraw.

An official in Eastern Europe said that if the United States truly does withdraw, European countries might be able to keep NATO running by increasing military spending. But the most likely outcome would be an immediate plunge into chaos, with some countries seeking to align themselves with Trump in order to protect themselves.

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By Ding Wenwu