7 days with 6 consecutive limit-ups! Will the weight loss probiotic capsules boost Minohua's momentum—are we witnessing a concept hype or value realization?

Can the weight-loss effects of AI JH389 be reproduced in larger-scale trials?

Source: Times Finance Author: Du Sumin

In seven trading days, there were six daily limit-up boards, with a price increase of 70.29% across the period. At one point, the market value nearly approached 10 billion. At the end of March, the active ingredient drug company Menova (603538.SH) staged a breathtaking rally.

However, on the evening of March 30, a single notice about unusual price fluctuations quickly cooled market enthusiasm. In the announcement, Menova stated plainly that its latest trailing price-to-earnings ratio was 86.82 times, which had seriously deviated from the Shanghai Composite Index and the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry index over the same period. It also said that the company’s stock price had risen by a relatively large amount in the short term, creating risks of overheated market sentiment and irrational speculation—indicating clear signs of a bubble and that there was a risk of a rapid decline at any time.

On March 31, Menova fell by more than 9% at one point during the trading session; it ultimately closed down 5.10%, at 40.90 yuan, with a turnover rate of nearly 40%. The high-level trading volume surge was clearly visible.

Menova was founded in 2004 and originally started out as a contract manufacturer of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). After listing on the Main Board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in April 2017, the company gradually expanded downward into the downstream formulation business, forming three major business segments: APIs, formulations, and CDMO. In addition, the formulations business has already become the core growth engine.

The performance data disclosed by Menova show that in the first three quarters of 2025, the company’s formulations business generated total revenue of 474 million yuan, accounting for 42% of total revenue—up from less than 30% in 2024. In 2025, Menova expects attributable net profit of 100 million yuan to 123 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 49.69% to 84.11%.

However, the direct catalyst for Menova’s stock price surge this round may be related to its in-development product JH389 and its shift toward the small nucleic acid drug track. According to an investor relations activity record disclosed by Menova on March 23, JH389 is positioned as a non-drug GLP-1 product, planned to be launched as a dietary supplement. At present, the safety trials jointly advanced with its Italian partner have entered the final stretch; after a complete safety report is formed, registration work in Europe and the United States will be launched.

Menova’s disclosed domestic human trial data for product ingestion indicates that among 28 participants, they took one dose per day—2 probiotic capsules per time—for 8 consecutive weeks. Weight levels decreased significantly; average weight loss was 2.5 kg and fat loss was 2.2 kg, with no adverse reactions related to the product.

Image source: TuChong.com

Menova points out that in the pharmaceutical industry, you need to “compete by therapeutic efficacy.” By choosing a non-drug direction, JH389 can cover a broader range of people. This group of “health-anxious people” is massive worldwide and has a strong willingness to pay. In addition, the non-drug pathway gives the product greater pricing flexibility and channel adaptability, and it can be combined with other ingredients/products to form different product bundles—reaching target consumers more quickly. It also expects JH389’s overseas pricing to reference the prices of GLP-1-type drugs.

Besides trying to enter the trillion-scale weight-loss health market through JH389, Menova will also take small nucleic acid drugs as the starting point for its innovation business transformation. Menova says that industry judgment holds that small nucleic acid drugs will drive the third wave of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry; in the future, they will become a standard-of-care treatment for chronic diseases and overturn the industry’s ecosystem.

However, Times Finance notes that Menova’s small nucleic acid drug project is still in an early stage of R&D, and in the short term it is unlikely to contribute to financial performance.

In response to the blowout rally in its stock price, Menova had already issued a risk warning announcement on March 27. The announcement clearly stated that JH389 is currently in the safety trial stage in Europe and faces multiple uncertainties, including the possibility of not passing review, the need for additional studies, and trial results falling short of expectations. Even if it is approved for market in the future, it will face intense market competition, and there are significant uncertainties about whether it can achieve large-scale sales and whether it can generate stable revenue and profit contributions.

Yet this announcement did not dampen market enthusiasm. On March 30, Menova again hit the daily limit-up. That night, Menova issued another announcement to remind investors of risks. The announcement shows that JH389 is a probiotic product, non-drug; as a dietary supplement, it has many limitations. In addition, for the ingestion trial with a sample size of 28, because the sample size is relatively small, the generalizability of the conclusions needs further validation in larger populations; the certainty of its conclusions is still insufficient.

On March 31, regarding questions such as whether there are plans for larger-scale and longer-term human trials for JH389 in the future, the specific timelines for European EFSA certification and U.S. GRAS certification, and the scale of the company’s R&D spending over the next 3 to 5 years, Times Finance sent an interview outline to Menova. As of the time of publication, no response had been received.

As of the close on March 31, Menova’s trailing price-to-earnings ratio was 90.63 times, while the average price-to-earnings ratio for the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was less than 30 times. This also means that investors had already priced in—up front—the optimistic expectations that JH389 would be successfully approved for listing, quickly ramp up volume, and that the R&D of small nucleic acid drugs would proceed smoothly. Menova’s line in its announcement—“clear signs of a bubble, with a risk of rapid declines at any time”—was not mere boilerplate.

From an API company to an innovative drug company, Menova’s transformation requires not only time for accumulation, but also tangible R&D progress and real commercialization achievements. Its stock performance going forward will remain deeply tied to how well the core projects progress.