Online prosperity, offline downturn: the restructuring of the alcohol distribution channels enters deep water

Ask AI · How will cooperation between liquor companies and platforms reshape the industry’s competitive landscape?

If online channels previously played the awkward role of “price sink” and “a hotspot for channel-hopping” in the baijiu industry, then today, they have become a strategic high ground jointly built by leading liquor companies and internet platforms. On March 31, a reporter from Beijing Business Today visited retail endpoints and found that, compared with the current offline market situation where sales momentum has yet to be fully activated, online channels are showing a lively scene. “China Liquor Market Climate Index (ACI) for the fourth quarter of 2025” shows that the online terminal climate index is as high as 83.98. Meanwhile, Meituan Flash Purchase also said that in the next three years it will help brands seek incremental growth from multiple angles.

On one side, the platform is making a bold bet on the next three years; on the other, industry associations are issuing a calm assessment based on terminal data. When offline tobacconists and liquor stores (climate index 41.45) and community retail endpoints (climate index 42.92) are still struggling in the “less-than-optimistic” range, the online channels’ 83.98 climate index is no longer simply a “supplement,” but has evolved into a wave that deeply reconstructs the underlying logic of the industry. And in this elimination race, how will liquor companies and channels avoid becoming mere running companions in a crowded track?

Liquor companies and platforms forming an alliance

At present, China’s online liquor market is showing a clear “mutual attraction”: liquor companies proactively “go online,” while platforms go “deep” down to the market.

Previously, liquor companies’ attitude toward online channels was somewhat “ambiguous”—on one hand, they coveted the massive traffic system online; on the other, they feared its impact on offline pricing. Now, leading iconic spirits are accelerating online penetration in different ways, gradually shifting the “unclear and hesitant” stance toward an “active embrace.”

A Beijing Business Today reporter, after sorting through materials, found that Moutai Baijiu—starting with its Moutai-flavored liquor—was the first to enter Meituan Flash Purchase, opening an official flagship instant retail store. Nearly 3,000 stores have gone live, connecting its offline specialty store system directly to the instant delivery network. Wuliangye sells its 29-degree “First Sight, Falling for You” low-alcohol baijiu on JD Supermarket. Snow Beer jointly created a mid-to-high-end beer “Little Brown Bottle” with JD. Tsingtao Beer and Meituan Flash Purchase jointly launched a “Fresh Delivered” series of products, deeply linking the beer’s “freshness” with the “speed” of instant retail.

If liquor companies’ “going online” was the beginning of strategic probing, then the platform’s public statements indicate that this online battle has formally entered the “competition” stage.

At the 2026 instant retail liquor and beverage ecology conference, Meituan Flash Purchase revealed that over the next three years, it will help five chain brands obtain more than 1 billion yuan in incremental instant retail growth, help 30 chain brands achieve over 100 million yuan in incremental growth, help 10 iconic liquor brands’ official flagship stores break 100 million yuan in sales, and help 10 brands grow into “flash warehouse” brands with more than 500 warehouses.

Liu Zhen’guo, deputy secretary-general of the China Liquor Industry Association, said that as consumers’ demands for convenience, scenario-based consumption, and a sense of experience in alcohol consumption continue to rise, instant retail is both a core lever to solve the pain points of traditional channels and a way to accurately match consumption needs. It is also the only path to rebuild the new pattern of alcohol distribution and promote the industry’s digital transformation, and has become an indispensable important growth pole for the future development of the liquor industry.

While online channels are being placed under high expectations, the situation of traditional offline channels is not optimistic and bears multiple pressures. A Beijing Business Today reporter, after visiting retail markets, found that sales momentum in current terminal markets has yet to be fully unleashed. The owner of a tobacconist and liquor store near the Ditian Temple area said that baijiu sales are still fairly “cool,” and many transactions prices for well-known and high-quality baijiu are still at low levels.

The “2025 fourth-quarter China Liquor Market Climate Index (ACI)” released by the China Alcohol Circulation Association shows that the climate indices for comprehensive retail terminals, tobacconists and liquor store terminals, supermarket terminals, and online terminals are 42.92, 41.45, 51.14, and 83.98, respectively.

Games of stock and changes in consumption

The “entry” of liquor companies and the “downward penetration” of platforms jointly outline a clear path for online channels to move from “supporting role” to “main character.” Behind this phenomenon are both structural pains within the industry and irreversible generational change on the consumer side.

In 2025, the baijiu industry is in a period of deep adjustment. Data from the China Liquor Industry Association shows that in the first half of 2025, more than 58.1% of distributors’ inventories showed an increasing trend. The industry’s average inventory turnover days surged to 900 days, and inventory volume increased by 25% year over year. Among 21 listed baijiu companies, only 6 achieved positive growth in revenue and profit, while most companies have had to face the reality of both volume and price falling at the same time. In addition, public reports show that 30% to 40% of offline tobacconists and liquor stores in 2025 are facing transformation.

Cai Jun, vice chairman of the China Alcohol Circulation Association, emphasized that the industry no longer has the cyclical logic of broad-based price increases and broad-based price declines. Inefficient terminals are continuing to clear out, and the stock market will be re-divided by the remaining entities. Cai Jun said directly: “Don’t keep asking when the industry will get better. Some companies may have to go on the menu—of course, some companies will be at the dining table.”

While the industry is in a deep adjustment period, an even deeper reason lies in the generational shift and habit reconstruction taking place on the consumer side. Meituan Flash Purchase data shows that its primary alcohol consumer audience is concentrated among people aged 25 to 45. The purchase behavior of these consumers is shifting from “planned stockpiling” to “instant purchasing.” Consumers no longer go to the supermarket in advance to carry a case home just to “have a drink,” but instead take out their phones to place orders when camping, watching a game, or in the middle of a dinner gathering.

Cai Jun pointed out that the market adjustment today is not a simple cyclical fluctuation. Practitioners need to abandon the old thinking of “waiting, relying, and asking for others,” actively embrace model upgrades, and deeply understand changes in consumption structure and channel reconstruction—only then can they build core competitiveness in the stock market.

How to reconstruct channels

Once both enterprises and channel players flock to online, the track will inevitably become crowded. Data from the Liquor Circulation Association shows that in 2025, the market size of instant retail liquor had already exceeded 50 billion yuan, and is expected to surpass 100 billion yuan by 2027. Against the backdrop of such a huge market capacity, how to leverage online advantages to capture more consumption scenarios is a question that liquor companies and channels have no choice but to think about.

With changes in population and household structure, China’s traditional liquor consumption scenarios—such as dining at restaurants and liquor tables at banquets—are being quickly dismantled. Once, “liquor” was deeply tied to “dining gatherings,” with banquets, business dinners, and wedding banquets forming the main battleground of consumption. Now, this arrangement has been broken. Alcohol consumption is spreading from traditional dinner gatherings to everyday moments such as home casual drinks, outdoor camping, late-night snacks, and moments of getting slightly tipsy alone. Meituan Flash Purchase data shows that in 2025, of the liquor delivered through Meituan Flash Purchase, 73% of orders were sent to residential communities, serving family get-togethers. Orders sent to parks and scenic areas increased by 108% year over year. Night orders (from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. the next day) accounted for as much as 70%.

Industry insiders believe that behind these figures is a profound shift in consumption logic. Consumers no longer create scenarios just to “drink,” but scenarios are now generating demand for “drinking.” Whoever can quickly satisfy these fragmented instant needs 7×24 hours will win the next round of incremental growth.

Different from traditional e-commerce’s “stockpiling logic,” the core competitiveness of instant retail lies in “response logic.” For this reason, liquor companies and platforms’ layout on the scenario side becomes especially important. Taking Moutai as an example, with nearly 3,000 stores for Moutai-flavored liquor connected to the instant delivery network, what is essentially happening is transforming specialty stores from “brand display points” into “scenario response nodes.”

Industry insiders point out that the goal proposed by Meituan Flash Purchase at the ecology conference—to help “10 iconic liquor brands’ official flagship stores achieve over 100 million yuan in sales in instant retail”—essentially bets on the future logic of “scenarios are traffic.” Similarly, JD Supermarket’s acceleration in building self-operated front-warehouse models and connecting seconds-level delivery services is also constructing infrastructure for “scenario response.”

In addition, Cai Jun said that short-video platforms are no longer just platforms for “winning,” but also platforms for “selling,” enabling a closed-loop integration of product effectiveness and marketing impact. Against this backdrop, the paradigm for launching new brands and new products has been reshaped. Paths for more and more new product categories to break through include content + e-commerce conversion, building momentum, and achieving resonance with offline channels.

Beijing Business Today reporter Liu Yibo, Feng Ruonan