If tensions escalate, will oil hit $120 tonight?

Brent crude is currently trading at $111–$112, up roughly $2–$3 from yesterday after Trump’s strong threat to “decimate every bridge and power plant” in Iran.
Bullish drivers for oil:
Trump’s direct threat to strike major infrastructure
Iran’s warning it could close the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil supply)
Market pricing in elevated geopolitical risk
Bearish / limiting factors:
No actual strikes have occurred yet
OPEC+ still has spare production capacity
Futures have not yet priced in a full Hormuz shutdown scenario
My Analysis:
No, oil will not hit $120 tonight.
Moving from $112 to $120 in just a few hours would require a true “black swan” event (actual U.S. strike + strong Iranian retaliation + complete Hormuz closure). Right now we only have threats. The most realistic range in the next 12–24 hours is $115–$118 if Trump confirms action at 8pm ET.
If a deal or deadline extension emerges, oil would dump quickly back to $105–$108.
Conclusion: Oil is bullish in the short term, but we are not looking at a super-spike yet. $120 only becomes likely with real conflict — not just words.
‍#OilPricesRise #TrumpIssuesUltimatum