“10-point plan” from Iran vs “15-point proposal” from the US — Is a U.S.–Iran Deal Still Possible?

The U.S.-Iran negotiation is at its most intense stage since Trump issued the ultimatum “Take Iran in one day.”
The United States presented a 15-point proposal with core demands:
A temporary 30-day ceasefire
Complete dismantling of nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz
Strict limits on the ballistic missile program
Immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers
In exchange: partial sanctions relief + technical support for the Bushehr power plant.
Iran countered with a 10-point plan demanding:
Permanent end to the war (not just a temporary ceasefire)
Complete halt to all support for attacks on Hezbollah
Lifting of all sanctions + compensation for reconstruction damages
Long-term safety guarantees for the Strait of Hormuz
Analysis:
Both sides are playing a high-stakes “chicken game.” The US is maximizing leverage before any strike, while Iran refuses to be “tricked” again. However, the fact that both proposals were sent through Pakistan (a neutral mediator) shows the dialogue channel is still open. Trump even publicly called it a “significant step forward” today, although he added it was “not good enough.”
My Conclusion:
A short-term deal tonight is very difficult (probability ~25%). But a long-term agreement remains feasible because neither side wants full-scale war. Iran fears total infrastructure collapse, while the US fears a major oil shock and American casualties. There is a strong chance of a deadline extension or a temporary 30-60 day agreement within the next 48 hours.
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