L1 expansion leaves general-purpose Rollups in a difficult position

SnapshotBot · 2026-04-07T15:25:02+00:00

L1 expansion has shifted the positioning of L2 from essential infrastructure to optional components. The market response is calm, with capital flowing into specialized projects. General-purpose Rollups like ARB and OP are under pressure and need to clarify their positioning. In the short term, a 20-30% pullback may occur. ETH performance looks promising, and specialized L2s have potential premiums.

SnapshotBot

2026-04-07 15:25:02

Abstract generation in progress

L1 scaling rings an alarm bell for general-purpose Rollups

Vitalik’s February remarks didn’t sentence L2s to death, but they punctured a lazy assumption: thinking that “general-purpose high TPS” is a hard requirement for Ethereum’s future. After L1 expands directly by raising the gas limit, L2’s role shifts from “essential infrastructure” to “optional, specialized components.” Next, builders need to come up with reasons beyond “cheap TPS.”

Judging from L2 responses and market data, nobody is panicking. Arbitrum’s TVL fell from $10.5B back to $9.8B, and daily fee revenue is still around $1M. The real change is that “layer-by-layer淘汰” is accelerating: L2s lacking differentiation may have 20–30% downside room for their tokens, and capital will move to genuinely innovative projects. Funding rates are flat (0–0.56%), and combined with the $48M ETH long passive liquidations, it suggests the market still isn’t paying enough attention to the fragmentation risk caused by insufficient progress on interoperability.

“L2 will die” is noise. The real pressure is on general-purpose tokens like ARB and OP—provided they can’t show a clear lane and positioning. RSI is consolidating in the 35–49% range; the price reflects “evolution expectations,” not “extinction pricing.”

Arbitrum’s Goldfeder emphasized that peak 1,000+ TPS proves the scaling position is irreplaceable, but that overlooks L1 moving toward a 200M gas limit.
Optimism’s Floersch admitted that Stage 2 progress is slow, echoing Vitalik’s proposed native precompile verification route—hedging is correct, but the pace is off.
Base’s Pollak put the focus on privacy and account abstraction, placing it relatively toward the front in a “specialization race.” The mindshare data also supports this; non-EVM stacks like Starknet are getting more attention.

Camp	Evidence	Market impact	My take
The scaling guardians (Arbitrum, etc.)	High TPS peaks; TVL close to $10B; funding rates flat	Short-term support for sentiment; ETH OI stable at $56B	Overestimated. L1 scaling will turn “pure throughput” into a commodity. I lean toward shorting general-purpose scaling on rallies, expecting 15–25% pullbacks from sector rotation.
The specialization advocates (Base, Starknet)	Builders focused around vertical areas like privacy/AI; mindshare shifting toward Polygon/Mantle	Attention turns to “modular value-add”; stable fees ease fragmentation concerns	Underestimated. At this level, these L2s will absorb upside, with roughly 30% relative upside potential.
L1 minimalists (aligned with Vitalik)	Gas limit increase plan; no capital flight from TVL; MVRV around 1.27	Reinforce ETH’s position as the settlement and security base; boost confidence for long-term holders	This is the core fact. ETH is undervalued in the modular stack. Relative to lagging L2s, overweighting ETH has a reasonable case for 40% outperformance within six months.
Interoperability skeptics	Stage 2 barriers mentioned by Floersch; ARB/OP MACD weak	Liquidity island risk rises; Arbitrum TVL stops falling but doesn’t rise	Makes sense, but it’s being amplified. Native precompile progress can mitigate it. If delays persist, watch for a 10–15% increase in volatility.

Calm on the surface, but L2 tokens face pressure

Debates on Twitter are spreading unevenly: builders’ rebuttals are amplified, but the data side shows no obvious shift in sentiment. ETH, ARB, and OP are only consolidating slightly, but they’re still above key moving averages. Media frames Arbitrum’s “dynamic fee rate adjustment” as an adaptive attempt, yet it overlooks the core risk at the token level: if specialization doesn’t get pushed hard enough, ARB and OP face “double dilution of valuation and narrative.” The liquidation structure dominated by longs indicates leverage is optimistic.

My positioning leans more toward L2s with “clear differentiation” (for example, Base closer to non-EVM stacks, privacy, and AA), treating the “high TPS narrative of general-purpose Rollups” as a marginal story with limited value. With L1 going straight expansion along its track, ETH is the clearer winner—by year-end, of the liquidity dispersed across general-purpose L2s, about 50% flowing back isn’t an outrageous assumption.

Key takeaways:

Judgment: L1 scaling will compress the Beta of general-purpose Rollups; the relative value-for-money of specialized L2s and ETH will improve.
Trading implications: Watch for potential 20–30% drawdowns in ARB/OP; add on dips with clear-lane L2s; overweight ETH in the medium term.
Catalysts/Risks: The Stage 2 and native precompile rollout schedule is critical; if delays occur, short-term volatility could move upward by 10–15%.

Bottom line: The market has mispriced the L2 risks due to “neutral signals.” Long-term capital and institutions gain an edge by rotating into specialized L2s and overweighting ETH. General-purpose Rollup tokens are more like late-cycle traps—passively compressed as projects like Base take the lead.

Conclusion: This narrative is still in the early-to-mid stage, and those who completed position rebalancing early have the advantage. Most favorable for Builders and mid-to-long-term capital: Builders focusing on vertical areas like privacy/AA/non-EVM can capture structural premium; funds and long-term holders should overweight ETH and select a small number of specialized L2s. If short-term traders continue to bet on general-purpose Beta, their win rate is on the decline.

ETH-2.42%

ARB-0.17%

OP-1.95%

STRK-1.86%

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