Hexun Investment Advisor Cao Bing: Today we see a rebound in the market; can we enter the market tomorrow?

3890 points—has your account gone red during today’s rebound against the downtrend? Tomorrow, is it really the right time to enter the market? According to Caobing Cao from Hexun Investment Advisory, today’s market saw a brief rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3884 points and traded in a narrow range throughout the day, though the volatility was also not big. It ultimately closed at 3890 points, up 0.26% from the previous trading day. In addition, nearly 4,000 individual stocks turned positive. Today’s rebound against the downtrend finally gave everyone a chance to catch their breath in the stock market. Now many people are asking me: these days, chemicals, oil and gas, and rare earths have all risen—should you chase them higher? Old Cao tells you clearly: don’t be impulsive. Today’s quant funds have been spreading their positions across these opposing directions to keep the situation tense tomorrow and fight ahead of time with preemptive sizing. Right now, with no incremental capital entering the market, even if you chase in today, tomorrow—if it really opens higher due to some message provoking sentiment—you still can’t compete with quant funds on speed. So Old Cao still chooses to stand still for now. Only when can we make a move? That is, after tomorrow’s pre-market news is finalized, everyone will have two paths they can take.

The first path: if tomorrow’s situation really gets extended by 45 days, that would be a major benefit beyond expectations. Folks, think about it—since the Spring Festival, has the market ever had a truly sustained uptrend? Not once. How long has the capital been holding it in? The institutions and speculators waiting outside have piles of cash in hand and are just missing a legitimate, above-board reason to enter. If it gets extended, then this reason is finally here. Most likely, huge amounts of capital from outside will come in to buy and push volume all the way, market sentiment will fully recover—only then will be the best time for us to move in and take action.

The second path: if tomorrow’s situation continues to be tense, then the market will most likely go straight into disagreement. Tomorrow, how should you operate? Old Cao gives everyone three core judgments—listen carefully.

First, at the moment the pre-market news is confirmed tomorrow, focus on whether trading volume expands. If it doesn’t expand, then any rise is just fake. The capital outside is very shrewd; without removing uncertainty, they won’t easily enter. If it truly is an extension-related positive catalyst, with volume expanding, then considering taking action wouldn’t be too late.

Second, if the situation remains tense and tomorrow’s early trading sees chemicals, oil and gas, and other directions open higher, then everyone can consider first taking profits.

Third—also the most important point—is that the current market isn’t about who can make more money, but about who can hold their hands back better. So all in all, tomorrow still needs to make the final decision based on the information and signals in the market. That’s the safest approach.

（责任编辑：王刚 HF004）

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