The global market awaits Goldman's next move

Praise first, then watch; limit-up after limit-up keeps coming[Taoguba]

Introduction:
Many people attribute the poor short-term sentiment to the turmoil in the Middle East, which is wrong. Whether short-term sentiment is good or not cannot be fully attributed to the Middle East’s battles and wars; instead, you need to look at follow-through. No matter whether “Golden Hair” upgrades the fighting intensity in its next step, it counts as bearish news being priced in. For short-term trading, there’s nothing much to worry about. No matter how big the bad news is, once it’s been priced in, it is still good for the short-term. If you time it correctly and the rhythm is right, you can still “eat meat.” In Taoguba, most people are doing short-term trades. These bearish news items can only affect short-term trading for a moment at most. And since you’re not trading indices or weights, the link between these bearish news items and short-term trading isn’t very strong. So don’t overinterpret it. For short-term trading, at most it’s partially impactful. Don’t blame your short-term trading skills for not being sharp or decisive enough on off-market bearish news. Holding up against the bearish news on Tuesday, with nearly a hundred limit-ups—that’s the best example. After bearish news is priced in, within a few days it may have nothing to do with short-term trading anymore. Even if bearish news is priced in, as long as short-term momentum lacks continuity, it still won’t be easy to trade. So don’t look at whether the outside bearish news is happening or not—its impact is not big; it’s pure overthinking.

1. Review of themes:
1. Benefiting from turmoil in the Middle East:
Limit-up 1:
Longxing Technology, Xinan Shares, Jiangnan Chemical Fiber, Hengyi Petrochemical, Youfu Shares, Sanfangxiang, Chengzhi Shares, Simm股份, Xinghua Shares, Qixiang Tengda, NiuNiu Chemical, Weiyuan Shares, Zhongnong United, Chitianhua, CuHua Shares, Jinzeng Da, LiuHua Shares, Dingji Chemical, Six Kingdoms Chemical, Jiangtian Chemical, Lutiantian, Zanyu Technology, Luxi Chemical, Yabang Shares, Poly Unite, HuaYi Group, Zhongtai Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Wannan Weigaoxin, Heshun Petroleum

Brief take:
The whole world is holding its breath, waiting to see what “Golden Hair” will do next. Its final deadline is Tuesday night 20:00 (Beijing time, Wednesday 8:00). The Persian cat has already clearly refused the ceasefire agreement, and it’s impossible to open the Strait of Hormuz before a comprehensive halt in hostilities—no face at all given to “Golden Hair.” Moreover, the leadership has already collectively stated that it is always ready to make sacrifices. It has a bit of an all-in vibe. They know they are no match, yet they still go with flesh and blood for the country’s crisis—this kind of tragic determination. If the whole nation could truly unite as one, the U.S. and Israel wouldn’t dare act so recklessly. The fundamental reason they dare to bomb so recklessly is that the nation isn’t united enough. There’s also evidence that the leadership’s surroundings have been penetrated like a sieve; otherwise, the leadership wouldn’t be decapitated so easily.
The Persian cat’s refusal is correct. Now that so many ships are still stuck inside the Strait of Hormuz, they can still count as hostages. Once they’re released, even if they get scared by “Golden Hair’s” extreme pressure, it can always continue the extreme pressure at any time. After a few days, when the Eagle uncle isn’t happy again, if it bombs again, there really won’t be any moves. “Golden Hair” is now stuck in a dilemma: it can only be tough-talking for now. Strategically, this is a major miscalculation. Wanting to back out isn’t something you can manage. If they hadn’t stepped onto the stage from the beginning, and instead supported Israel to do its thing independently, they wouldn’t end up in such a passive situation now.
As for that ceasefire agreement—if the Persian cat had even a little backbone, it wouldn’t have agreed. So the refusal falls within expectations.
If the agreement were to negotiate allowing 10% or 20% of the ships inside the Strait of Hormuz to pass first, it might still be discussable. But a complete ceasefire with fully open access is definitely not possible. So you can expect below to see whether both sides will step back a bit and meet halfway: first, a plan to release some ships for passage, with both sides stepping back. Everyone would then have a stair to get down. Then they can sit down and talk. (“Golden Hair,” the plan is given to you—use it to negotiate along these lines; no invoice for the consulting fee; don’t pretend.)
Also, will “Golden Hair” go off the usual path? Announce unilaterally that our mission is already completed, and that we won’t bomb unilaterally anymore. Then, support Israel to act alone—you go play yourselves, and we don’t care about this mess anymore. If it truly turns out that way, then the whole world would really be completely baffled.
Finally, one more sentence: regardless of whether “Golden Hair” upgrades the fighting intensity in its next step, it counts as bearish news being priced in. For short-term trading, there’s nothing to worry about. If you get the rhythm right, you can still eat meat. In Taoguba, most people are doing short-term trades. These bearish news items can at most affect short-term trading for a while. After bearish news is priced in, within a few days it may no longer matter for short-term trading. What’s most feared is uncertainty hanging in the air: no matter how big the bearish news is, once it’s priced in, it counts as a positive for short-term trading.
As for long-term trading, there’s nothing much to worry about either. After a year, you look back at this level—it’s a golden pit. At that time, you’ll think, “If only I had done more back then.” What truly kills are those who can’t do well with short-term trades and can’t hold on to long-term positions. This group is the easiest to get harvested.

2. Biopharma:
Limit-up 1:
Harbin Pharmaceutical, Tonghua Golden Horse, Luyian Pharmaceutical, Nanjing Pharmaceutical, Xintian Pharmaceutical

Limit-up 7:
Jinzhou Pharmaceutical Industry

Brief take:
Basically consistent with Sunday’s recap and forecasts. There weren’t sector-wide opportunities—only localized “grouping” opportunities within the sector. Tuesday’s (Jinzhou Pharmaceutical Industry) advancing to limit-up 7 couldn’t even drive the sector. That’s the best proof.
Keeping the previous thought process and forecast unchanged: it’s hard for the sector to have a trend-type opportunity. It’s mainly localized “grouping” within the sector. But if the leader keeps exceeding expectations, it might bring the sector into a wave of “rotation back.” However, that’s still just a rotation back. Treat it as rotation.

3. Fiber-optic sector:
Limit-up 1:
Tongding Interconnect, Far Sheng, Hiam Pulse Technology

Limit-up 3:
Xineng Taishan, Huiyuan Communications

Brief take:
Because of uncertainties casting a shadow over it, trend capital doesn’t want to step in. But the sector’s overall performance isn’t bad either. Within the sector, stock rotation is the main thing. Sector continuity has been among the best in the past few trading days. Whether it can really break out and continue to track—this is a sector with certain expectations. The reason it can’t form a trend acceleration is that the overall market environment is too poor. If it can’t keep breaking into trend acceleration for a long time, some trend capital that got in early may not be able to stand the boredom and might start selling pressure first. On Tuesday, some individual stocks in the sector surged up but couldn’t hold and then dumped. However, overall, the follow-through is still “not too bad,” neither good nor truly bad.

Each branch’s trend stocks can be observed along the five-day line to see whether the upward trend support is effective.

Thanks to @邪恶大章鱼 for being #1 on the hotness chart with 25000 points of Jinfen

Hotness chart #2: @许大龙 @Suki莹 @赚钱去养猪

Hotness chart #3: @起名太难了7

Thanks to everyone who contributed hotness, brothers and sisters:
@邪恶大章鱼 @许大龙 @Suki莹 @赚钱去养猪 @起名太难了7 @风云1028 @请输入您的命运 @橘子小小神 @RK李李 @风雨过后必有阳光 @一笑博大 @大熊没有眼镜 @马铃薯炒土豆了 @askingmo @股舞人心的鼓 @killer123456 @随主流者 @古道黯然 @杨淡然FF @在在在 @笔名早已被使用 @tj炒股 @逗逗的小猫 @魔术师十七 @路过的外星人 @吃饭不排队 @夏夏的韭菜 @szduncan @蕴阳 @树懒7 @修炼内功 @等闲了 @繁简先生 @刀哥来了 @被放逐的羚羊 @黄贵滨 @海云天76 @卓尔君 @新时期炒家 @小铭炒股 @一路长虹er @我是一只兔
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Thanks to the brothers who supported with “encouragement coupons”
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** Market overview:**

At the opening, within the first 7 minutes, I already reminded you that the market is rotating. On Tuesday, looking back at the tape is also a perfect confirmation—it was almost to the point of “rotation until the smoke comes out.” This is also why there are so many limit-ups, but the broader market hasn’t expanded volume.
Looking at the whole market, it seems like there’s a huge rally, but overall profitability is actually not good. And on Tuesday, most of the winners were those who were already profitable from the pre-holiday Thursday/Friday positions. People who chased up on Tuesday aren’t really making money either—they only chase. The big question is whether the ones who chased up can safely exit on Wednesday. Only the people who chased up know how many are standing guard at intraday highs. Across the whole market, it’s like a super giant roulette. Except for the weights, on Tuesday, almost all sector themes rotated across the board, with zero continuity—no continuation at all.