Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

ME News message. April 4 (UTC+8). On Friday, the United States released the nonfarm payrolls report, showing that the country added 178k jobs, far exceeding expectations. Meanwhile, February’s data were revised downward from the initially estimated decrease of 92k to a decrease of 133k. Against the backdrop of reduced odds of the Fed cutting rates in 2026, the report provided short-term support for the U.S. dollar. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “quick victory” plotline attributed to Trump is starting to fall apart. A more critical test for the market is also on the way: the first CPI after the outbreak of hostilities is set to be released, and inflation could potentially skyrocket. Some have warned that “this is not the time to trade.” Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time): Monday 22:00, the U.S. March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00, the U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35, remarks on monetary policy by 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsby; Thursday 02:00, the Fed releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30, initial jobless claims in the U.S., the U.S. February core PCE price index year-over-year rate, the U.S. February personal spending month-over-month rate, the final estimate of the U.S. Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly rate, the final estimate of the U.S. Q4 real personal consumption expenditures quarterly rate, the final estimate of the U.S. Q4 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate, and the U.S. February core PCE price index month-over-month rate; Friday 20:30, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate/core CPI year-over-year rate, and the U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month rate/core CPI month-over-month rate. Friday 22:00, the initial estimate of the U.S. April 1-year inflation rate expectations, the initial estimate of the U.S. April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and the U.S. February factory orders month-over-month rate (source: PANews).