#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Tensions Flare Between the U.S. and Iran as Gold Prices Fluctuate

Gold: On April 6th, local time, during a White House press conference, Trump stated that whether the conflict with Iran escalates or ends depends on Iran’s compliance with his set deadline. He also mentioned that the U.S. is engaging in dialogue with Iran. Meanwhile, Iran responded to the U.S. proposal to end the war, demanding a permanent end to the conflict and listing specific demands, including ending hostilities, establishing a security passage agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, promoting post-war reconstruction, and lifting related sanctions. Zhisheng Research Investment Strategist Mai Dong said that there has been no substantial progress between the U.S. and Iran regarding a ceasefire; both sides are still in a stalemate of fighting while negotiating, so the impact on gold prices is limited.
Technical analysis: Yesterday closed with a small bullish candle. On the daily chart, gold is fluctuating between $4,500 and $4,800. On the 1-hour chart, prices are moving between the 60-day and 120-day moving averages, with an overall upward trend, but short-term resistance at minor highs, indicating possible market consolidation.
Today’s support level is at $4,620, and resistance is at $4,710.

Crude Oil: Over the weekend, U.S. forces conducted another bombing raid on Iran and successfully rescued two pilots. During this period, Iran shot down four U.S. fighter jets, causing market expectations for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire to be delayed by 2-4 weeks or even longer. On the supply side, OPEC+ announced a production increase of approximately 206k barrels per day in May, but given current transportation restrictions, whether the additional supply can smoothly enter the market remains uncertain. Despite nominal increases in supply, actual effective supply has not significantly improved. In summary, the current oil market remains dominated by geopolitical risks, with the uncertainty in the Middle East being the key variable influencing oil prices. Short-term production increases are unlikely to resolve the underlying issues.
Technical analysis: Yesterday closed with a bearish candle. On the daily chart, oil prices remain steady above $100 and have again approached the $120 mark. On the 1-hour chart, prices are above the 60/120-day moving averages, with an ongoing upward trend.
Today’s support is at $112, and resistance is at $120.

US Dollar Index: Last week’s U.S. economic data showed retail sales and employment figures exceeding market expectations. This somewhat alleviated concerns about stagflation risks and renewed market confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy. Regarding the Federal Reserve, Powell’s cautious dovish comments temporarily boosted expectations for rate cuts, but achieving rate cuts within the year remains challenging. Powell pointed out that from a medium- to long-term perspective, the U.S. economy still possesses strong productivity, but the short-term labor market faces challenges.
Technical analysis: Yesterday closed with a bearish candle. On the daily chart, the price remains within the 98.80-100.50 range. On the 1-hour chart, prices repeatedly cross the 60/120-day moving averages, indicating a market in consolidation.
Today’s support is at 99.70, and resistance is at 100.30.

Nasdaq: Yesterday closed with a bullish candle. On the daily chart, the price dipped near 22,800, forming a temporary low, then quickly rebounded to 24,200. On the 1-hour chart, prices are above the 60/120-day moving averages, but the MACD momentum histogram is approaching zero, indicating weakening bullish momentum.
Today’s support is at 23,850, and resistance is at 24,200.

Copper: Yesterday closed with a bearish candle. On the daily chart, prices formed a short-term rebound between $5.35 and $5.68. On the 1-hour chart, prices are above the 60/120-day moving averages, but recent prices have not made new highs, so watch for potential trend reversal signals. Support is at $5.50, and resistance is at $5.62.

Market Outlook for April 7:
1. White House Economic Advisor Hassett stated that the Federal Reserve should have the capacity to cut interest rates. It is expected that after Powell’s appointment, the Fed will lower rates.
2. Fed officials Goolsbee and Harker indicated that inflation is signaling an orange or more severe warning.
3. European Central Bank officials said it is too early to determine whether to raise interest rates in April, and the Eurozone’s economic growth outlook faces downside risks.

Key Data/Events for April 7:
1. 20:30 U.S. February durable goods orders month-over-month.
2. 23:00 U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations.
3. Next day 00:00 EIA Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report.
4. Next day 00:35 Fed Goolsbee on monetary policy.

Important Notice: The above content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk.