Non-ferrous metals in-depth: Are the US-Iran "15 Conditions" a dawn of peace or a delaying tactic? Is today's sharp rise a fleeting moment or a reversal signal?

March 25, 2026 | Core issue: the “surging heat with no real foundation” in metal prices under geopolitical games

Today, all base metal sectors (except aluminum oxide) surged across the board in the previous session. Benchmark contracts for copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, tin, and others all closed higher. The immediate trigger for this move was a major development reported on March 24 local time: the U.S. government presented Iran with a ceasefire-ending plan via Pakistan that includes “15 conditions,” and intends to push for a one-month ceasefire.

The market instantly interpreted it as “the unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium.” Oil prices fell sharply, and risk assets rebounded. However, amid this broad-market celebration, we need to take a calm look: can this plan truly be achieved? Will Iran accept it? Is today’s行情 the start of a trend reversal, or just a typical “news-market” fleeting moment?

I. Break down the “15 conditions”: extremely harsh, with very high difficulty to achieve

According to the disclosed information, the “15 conditions” put forward by the U.S. almost touches every red line of Iran’s national security:

Zero out the nuclear program: dismantle core nuclear facilities such as Natanz and Fordow, transfer 60% of highly enriched uranium, commit to never acquiring nuclear weapons, and ban domestic uranium enrichment.

Cut down missile capabilities: limit ballistic missiles to defensive use only, and sharply reduce range and scale.

Separate regional influence: stop funding, command, and weapons support for all regional allies (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, etc.).

Open the strait: ensure the Strait of Hormuz is unconditionally opened.

In return, Iran would receive sanctions relief, support for civilian nuclear projects, and the cancellation of the “snapback” sanctions mechanism.

In-depth analysis:

An unequal game: this is not a draft negotiation among equals; it is more like a “surrender document.” Iran is required to completely give up the strategic deterrence power (nuclear weapons and missiles) and its network of regional proxies that it relies on for survival, in a context where military action continues for nearly a month and the supreme leader is assassinated or severely harmed—this is almost impossible to accomplish within Iran’s domestic political ecosystem.

Iran’s response: according to reports from multiple sides, Iran immediately denied that substantial negotiations were underway, saying it was the U.S.’s “one-sided talking points.” Previously, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps even took extreme countermeasures such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz or setting up “toll booths.” This hardline posture indicates Iran is not prepared to accept such stringent conditions.

The essence of the ceasefire: the so-called “one-month ceasefire” is more likely a tactical stalling move by the U.S. to ease domestic election pressure, reduce oil-price inflation, or buy time for the next round of military action, rather than the beginning of a strategic peace.

Conclusion: the probability of an agreement is extremely low. The two sides’ core demands are fundamentally at odds, with no basis for mutual trust. What is called “close to reaching an agreement” is more likely a media smoke screen released by the U.S.

II. The logic behind today’s big rally: emotional repair vs. fundamental reality

Today’s surge in non-ferrous sectors is mainly based on the following logic chain:

Geopolitical premium fades: ceasefire expectations led international oil prices to plunge (U.S. oil fell below $88), reducing energy costs and inflation expectations.

Risk appetite rebounds: safe-haven capital left gold and the dollar, flowing back into risk assets such as stocks and industrial metals.

Macroeconomic resonance: with tailwinds such as the PBOC’s net injection of 50 billion yuan in MLF, and the convening of two major forums, a “bullish sentiment with both domestic and external resonance” formed.

However, is this rally sustainable?

Copper: LME inventories hit an eight-year high (359k tons), and the U.S. bank cut its target price to $11,000. The reality of supply and demand oversupply has not changed because of a single piece of news. Today’s big rise is more about short-covering than a proactive push by long positions.

Aluminum: domestic social inventories are at a high level; downstream players fear high prices and remain on the sidelines, and spot trading is “high on price but light on actual market activity.” Cost support exists, but weak demand limits upside room.

Zinc/nickel: clear expectations that supply at the mine end will improve; the nickel oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The “gravity” of fundamentals is still strong.

Key judgment: today’s rise is essentially an emotion-driven oversold rebound rather than a fundamentals-driven trend reversal. Once the market realizes the “15 conditions” are hard to implement, or Iran issues a firm rejection, the geopolitical risk premium will quickly be rebuilt, oil prices will rebound, and metal prices will face immense downside pressure.

III. Forward-looking scenarios: three scripts and response strategies

Based on our assessment of the outlook for U.S.-Iran negotiations, we outline the following three possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: negotiations break down, situation escalates (probability: 50%)

Situation: Iran publicly rejects the “15 conditions,” or proposes a counter-offer the U.S. cannot accept. After the ceasefire period ends, military conflict resumes, potentially even spilling over into the Strait of Hormuz.

Market reaction: oil prices rebound violently; inflation expectations reignite; the dollar strengthens. Non-ferrous metals will face a double hit of “rising costs” and “declining demand.” Prices will rise first, then fall, and ultimately revert to the weak fundamentals.

Strategy: sell short on rallies. Use the heightened sentiment to build short positions, focusing on oversupplied varieties such as copper and nickel.

Scenario 2: stalemate drags on, fighting while negotiating (probability: 40%)

Situation: both sides agree to extend the ceasefire, but core terms cannot be aligned. The situation remains in a “cold peace” state, with occasional small-scale frictions.

Market reaction: the market enters a choppy range-bound mode. The geopolitical risk premium stays at a low level, but will not disappear completely. Metal prices will fluctuate narrowly between the cost line and inventory pressure.

Strategy: range trading. Sell high and buy low to avoid one-way bets. Watch for stage-by-stage opportunities in products with faster inventory destocking (such as zinc).

Scenario 3: an unexpected preliminary agreement is reached (probability: 10%)

Situation: a major shift occurs within Iran, or the U.S. makes a significant concession, and both sides reach a temporary framework agreement.

Market reaction: global risk assets surge across the board; oil prices fall; metal prices receive strong macro support in the short term. But in the long run, fundamentals of supply and demand still constrain performance.

Strategy: chase longs in the short run, move fast in and out. Be alert to fundamental downside news rebounding once sentiment cools.

IV. Core view: cautiously optimistic—do not chase prices blindly

In summary, regarding today’s broad rally in non-ferrous metals, our view is: “cautiously optimistic; treat it as a rebound, not a reversal.”

Geopolitical angle: the “15 conditions” are too stringent, and the difficulty of reaching an agreement is extremely high. Current ceasefire expectations are fragile and could be shattered at any time by Iran’s hardline response. Do not underestimate the complexity and repetitiveness of the situation in the Middle East.

Fundamentals angle: most metals (copper, nickel, aluminum) still face the harsh reality of high inventories and weak demand. Improvements in macro sentiment cannot, in the short term, overturn the imbalance in supply and demand.

Trading recommendations:

Industrial customers: take advantage of today’s price rise to actively sell for hedging/preservation of value, lock in profits, and reduce inventory risk.

Speculative traders: absolutely forbid chasing prices blindly. Today’s rise lacks solid fundamental support and is highly prone to a “one-day wonder”行情. Consider participating with small position size, set strict stop-losses, and focus on Iran’s official follow-up response and the actual execution of the ceasefire period.

Focus points: over the coming week, closely watch official statements from the office of Iran’s supreme leader, the Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. Any small change could trigger sharp fluctuations in market sentiment.

Closing words:

The U.S.-Iran “15 conditions” may bring a brief calm, but the ultimate direction of the non-ferrous metals market will inevitably return to the cold data of inventories, utilization rates, and costs. In today’s celebration, staying clear-headed is what allows one to move steadily and go far.

Disclaimer: This article’s analysis is based on publicly available information and a market logic scenario analysis only, for reference purposes and does not constitute specific investment advice. Geopolitical situations can change in an instant; markets carry risk. Entering the market requires caution.