Just now, a collective surge! The latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz

Asia-Pacific markets rise collectively!

In the early morning of April 7, the major stock indexes in the Asia-Pacific region rose collectively. Among them, South Korea’s KOSPI index and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose by more than 2%. Samsung Electronics surged nearly 5%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose by more than 0.80%.

European index futures also rose across the board. As of the time of publication, Euro STOXX 50 index futures were up 0.75%, German DAX index futures were up 0.81%, and UK FTSE index futures were up 0.53%.

As for the latest developments regarding Iran’s situation, according to CCTV News, Iran’s Parliament’s National Security Commission has begun reviewing a plan for the management of the Strait of Hormuz. A spokesperson for Iran’s Parliament’s National Security Commission said that strategic action plans to ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf have been added to the agenda.

A maritime analysis company in the UK said on April 6 that passage through the Strait of Hormuz has shifted to a “two-channel system,” namely the northern channel controlled by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a new southern channel along the Oman coastline.

Also, according to Xinhua News Agency, on April 7, Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran’s parliamentary speaker, said on social media that Iran has clearly already “won the war,” accepting only such an end-of-war scenario: consolidating the results and establishing a new security system in the region. U.S. President Trump now has only about 20 hours—either he yields to Iran, or his allies will retreat to the Stone Age. “We will never back down!”

Japanese and South Korean stock markets surge collectively

In the early morning of April 7, the Asia-Pacific market opened higher and climbed steadily. As of the time of publication, South Korea’s KOSPI index was up 2.59%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index was up 2.03%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was up 0.89%.

For individual stocks, Samsung Electronics rose nearly 5%, and Hanmi Semiconductor and SK hynix rose by more than 3%. The unaudited preliminary data released by Samsung Electronics on Tuesday showed that its operating profit in the first quarter reached a record 57.2 trillion won (about 38 billion USD), up 755% year over year, far exceeding market expectations. This marked the first time Samsung Electronics’ quarterly operating profit exceeded 50 trillion won, mainly driven by strong demand in the artificial intelligence sector for high-end memory chips.

In addition, there are reports that after Samsung Electronics’ DRAM contract price increased by 100% in the first quarter this year, the DRAM contract price in the second quarter will rise another 30% quarter over quarter. Samsung Electronics has confirmed that by the end of March it completed price negotiations with major customers and signed supply contracts. The 30% increase in DRAM contract prices includes the HBM required for AI chips, as well as the general DRAM required for PCs and smart phones.

Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher. The Dow rose 0.36%, the Nasdaq rose 0.54%, and the S&P 500 index rose 0.44%. Chip stocks climbed; Hanmi Semiconductor rose by more than 3%, and Texas Instruments, Microchip Technology, and Marvell Technology rose by more than 2%.

Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, said, “The market sees the ‘carrot’ and also sees the ‘stick.’ On the one hand, there are ceasefire talks; on the other hand, the bombing continues.” Sosnick said that aside from a brief fluctuation at the beginning of Trump’s remarks, the overall reaction of the U.S. stock market and the oil market has been muted, and investors clearly still hope that hostile actions will not quickly escalate.

Investors were also digesting economic data that came in weaker than expected. In the U.S., the pace of expansion in the services sector in March slowed, with employment indicators showing the largest decline since 2023, and input costs accelerating noticeably faster. Kevin Brocks of 22V Research said it is not surprising that the Iran war has weighed on business confidence: “For the Federal Reserve, there is almost no new information here.” Morgan Stanley believes U.S. stocks may be nearing a bottom and suggested starting to add positions, especially in cyclical sectors and high-quality growth stocks.

Meanwhile, new information has also come from the Strait of Hormuz. According to CCTV News, on April 6 local time, Ebrahim Raisi, a spokesperson for Iran’s Parliament’s National Security Commission, said that the commission has started reviewing a plan aimed at exercising Iran’s sovereignty and establishing new arrangements and a legal framework for the Strait of Hormuz.

The spokesperson said that at this meeting, strategic action plans to ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf were added to the agenda, and that parts of the content have already been reviewed and approved. After the National Security Commission completes all reviews, the plan will be submitted to Iran’s Parliament for consideration by the full parliament session.

A maritime analysis company headquartered in the UK, Winward, said on April 6 that passage through the Strait of Hormuz has shifted to a “two-channel system,” namely the northern channel controlled by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps near Larak Island and a new southern channel formed along the Oman coastline.

The company’s analysis report shows that on April 5, a total of 11 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, including 3 entering and 8 departing. All entering vessels were tankers, while departing vessels included tankers and cargo ships. The departing traffic was distributed across two routes: among them, 5 vessels used the northern channel, and 3 vessels chose the southern channel.

The report said that the northern channel still centers on Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps control near Larak Island. At the same time, a southern channel formed along the Oman coastline allows vessels to pass outside the original controlled area. The report believes that the recent evolution in the strait’s passage patterns indicates that military control and an emerging diplomatic coordination mechanism are proceeding in parallel.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan issue warnings

As military actions carried out jointly by the United States and Israel against Iran continue, the key shipping lane—the Strait of Hormuz—has effectively entered a blockade status, and it is becoming a realistic possibility that many countries will soon face oil shortages.

In its latest report, Goldman Sachs strategist Daan Struyven wrote: “As the last batch of tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz before the outbreak of war gradually arrive at their destinations, concerns about potential oil shortages are intensifying.”

Struyven added: “Our three-party analysis shows that in Asia, supplies of petrochemical feedstocks, naphtha, and liquefied petroleum gas are at severely low levels, and multiple Asian countries will face shortages across product categories in April. The limited remaining oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, alternative import channels, export-control measures, and each country’s domestic oil reserves may help ease the impact of the strait blockade on gasoline and diesel supplies, but the risk of shortages of fuel oil and naphtha remains very high, especially in Asia.”

Over the past two weeks, oil prices have seen extreme fluctuations, and more recently they have surged to the highest level since the start of military actions at the end of February.

On Monday, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the Iran war could trigger shocks in oil and commodity prices, keeping inflation at a high level and pushing interest rates above the level currently expected by the market.

Dimon’s warning was issued in his annual letter to shareholders. The day before, U.S. President Trump increased pressure on Iran, threatening that if Iran does not reopen the key waterway of the Strait of Hormuz, strikes would be launched against its power plants and bridges on Tuesday.

“The challenge faced by all of us is enormous.” Dimon added. He cited risks including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and broader hostile actions in the Middle East. He said, “Now, because of the Iran war, we also face potential risks that oil and commodity prices could experience significant volatility, as well as the reshaping of global supply chains. This could make inflation more persistent and ultimately push interest rates higher than the market’s current expectations.”

Dimon said that time will tell whether the Iran war can achieve the United States’ goals, and added that nuclear proliferation remains the biggest danger posed by Iran.

Concerns about war-driven inflation have led the market to largely rule out the possibility of interest-rate cuts this year. Last year’s monetary easing policy helped push U.S. stock markets to record highs.

On Monday, Federal Reserve officials and Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said that if inflation continues to remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, rate hikes may be appropriate. Hammack said she would prefer officials keep interest rates unchanged for “a considerable period of time.”

Hammack has a vote on monetary policy this year, and in January and March she supported the decision to keep rates unchanged.

Layout: Yang Yucheng

Proofreading: Peng Qihua