Is Trump issuing a new ultimatum — "Deal with Iran in one day"?

1. A US-Iran deal is unlikely in the near future. The gap in demands (10 vs 15 points) is too large, and Trump's ultimatum is more likely to harden Iran's position than push for a compromise.
2. Oil today $120 — unlikely, but a sharp spike could occur with real strikes. So far, oil has rebounded on fears, but actual military action or blocking the Strait of Hormuz is needed for a significant move.
3. Returning BTC to $70,000 — unlikely in the coming days. The pullback is related to risk aversion due to geopolitics. To recover, de-escalation or a new positive driver $113 such as US inflation data$120 is required. For now, BTC will follow oil and fears.
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