#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 What recent news has impacted the trends of gold and crude oil? How should the outlook for gold be analyzed in the near future?

On Tuesday, April 7th, the spot gold market continued to fluctuate narrowly around the $4,600 to $4,700 per ounce range after opening.
The latest market focus is on Israel's airstrikes on key Iranian infrastructure, with multiple facilities on Halage Island and the Khashan railway bridge targeted. Israel confirmed that a wave of attacks on various Iranian targets has been completed.
Iranian media reports indicate that localized damage is controllable, but local sources mention damage to loading docks and tanks, and an explosion at the railway bridge resulted in two deaths, directly cutting off logistics arteries from central to southern ports. This incident occurred hours before the deadline set by Trump, which demanded Iran accept a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, Iran would face a comprehensive infrastructure strike.
Crude oil prices rose in tandem due to supply chain disruption concerns, but spot gold remained relatively weak, reflecting market caution over the evolving conflict.
Traders are closely watching the outcome of the late-night ultimatum; any signals of de-escalation or escalation could reshape short-term pricing logic.
The ongoing rise in geopolitical uncertainty has not significantly boosted gold buying but has instead strengthened the US dollar's role as a global safe-haven and reserve currency. Coupled with market expectations that major central banks will maintain hawkish policies, the appeal of non-yielding gold continues to weaken.
As the Trump deadline approaches, both technical analysis and capital flows indicate a bearish trend for gold. Gold prices have remained weak for three consecutive trading days, and Tuesday’s European morning saw no trend-driven selling, with prices still trading within the wide range of the previous day. Expectations of a last-minute US-Iran agreement are cooling, and the dollar’s strength further suppresses gold prices. Meanwhile, market bets on prolonged high interest rates from major central banks continue to reinforce the downward trend.
Currently, the market generally believes that geopolitical conflicts pushing energy prices higher will reignite inflation pressures, forcing the Federal Reserve and other central banks to adopt more hawkish policies. Trump’s tough rhetoric against Iran and threats to destroy civilian infrastructure have directly pushed crude oil prices to new highs in recent weeks. Iran has responded strongly, and the risk of escalation in Middle Eastern conflicts continues to rise. The US March ISM Services PMI fell short of expectations, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum, but the sharp rebound in the prices paid index has reignited inflation concerns. Coupled with last Friday’s non-farm payroll data showing resilience in the employment market, market bets on a “higher for longer” interest rate path from the Fed have intensified, benefiting the dollar and making short-term downside for gold more clear. Traders are awaiting further macroeconomic data from the US to guide new trading directions.

April 7 Gold Market Analysis:

Technical analysis of gold: Over the past two days, gold has mostly been oscillating. On the daily chart, it remains somewhat weak, with potential for further decline. My outlook remains the same as Monday: gold has entered a consolidation phase, and we need to wait for this week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and CPI data to see if the range can be broken, potentially leading to a sustained rally or decline. The major range to watch is between 4500 and 4800; until it breaks this range, don’t expect a strong trending move. A break below 4500 could lead to a drop toward 4350; a break above 4800 could push toward 5000.
The 4-hour chart is currently in a contracting consolidation, rebounding from the low of 4100. The space and time span are both significant, and the short-term trend is being re-evaluated, with the consolidation likely to extend further. Early in the week, consider shorting near 4700 if prices pull back, with resistance around the Fibonacci retracement level 0.618 near 4800. There are signs of early resistance, so in Asian trading, look for short opportunities near 4700-4710 if prices rebound, targeting a decline toward 4600-4550. A break below 4550 could lead to further declines. Overall, for today’s short-term trading, Jinsf recommends mainly shorting on rebounds and buying on dips, with a focus on resistance at 4700-4710 and support at 4500-4550. Proper position sizing, strict stop-loss placement, and avoiding against-the-trend trades are essential.