China Merchants Securities: After external shocks subside, market focus in mid to late April will shift to sectors with high growth in first-quarter earnings

Ask AI: How Will the Escalation of the U.S.-Iran Conflict Affect Global Stock Markets?

【China Merchants Securities: After External Shocks Subside, the Market Focus in Mid-to-Late April Will Shift to Sectors Showing Strong Year-on-Year Growth in Q1 Earnings】China Finance Online News, April 6: China Merchants Securities’ strategy research believes that looking ahead to April, the external risks facing A-shares have not been genuinely alleviated yet. The United States is currently accelerating the buildup of military forces. As the “USS Bush” carrier battle group completes its deployment by mid-April, the likelihood of ground combat will increase significantly, and there is a risk that the U.S.-Iran conflict could escalate beyond expectations. Against this backdrop, further upward pressure on oil prices will intensify market concerns about global stagflation. If, in mid-to-late April, the U.S. military launches a ground offensive—whether due to combat casualties exceeding expectations or due to oil price spikes triggering a deep pullback in global stock markets—the Trump administration may be forced to shift toward a de-escalation strategy, and the market may play out a typical “dilemma reversal”行情. Domestically, after the conclusion of the Two Sessions in March and the release of the outline of the “15th Five-Year Plan,” subsequent key investment projects will accelerate their rollout, becoming the core driving force behind a rebound in domestic investment growth. If external shocks lead to a significant increase in economic uncertainty, there is an expectation that the Political Bureau meeting at the end of April may further add measures to stabilize growth. Taken together, late April will be a key time window for marginal improvements in both domestic and international conditions. After external shocks fade, in mid-to-late April the market focus will shift to sectors with high growth in Q1 earnings. Based on current data, resource sectors such as nonferrous metals and oil & petrochemicals, as well as new energy, optical communications, and the semiconductor industry chain, are expected to be the industries with the most impressive earnings growth rates.