Pop Mart still lacks a "value consensus"

“Gen Z Plays, Plays the Era”

I’ve always believed that establishing an IP in the market boils down to 「value recognition」. Whether it’s the feeling of being cute and healing, emotional venting “mouthpiece” lines, or story immersion in a complete world… at its core, it’s all about building recognition. This kind of recognition represents an intention from the heart—one that can even go beyond “rationality,” and even go beyond “unconditional.”

But for a company that holds numerous popular IP resources, Pop Mart is precisely lacking in value recognition.

Everyone has seen the company’s 「made it once and became a legend」 moment: LABUBU skyrocketed, driving the company into a high-growth zone. Over the past year, it’s been full of “speed and passion,” and no surprise—it has also delivered its best-ever set of results.

Annual revenue of 37.1 billion yuan, gross margin over 72.1%—both hitting new highs.

However, the market’s view of this “reckless driver” is clearly split. The stock price fell by 30% on the day.

The company announced a share buyback plan for two consecutive days, for a total buyback of about HK$900 million, yet the stock price didn’t stop dropping (after the earnings call, the next trading day the company’s share price closed down by 0.7%). This shows that the market has “insufficient confidence.”

In short, even if the earnings report is excellent, it’s only delivering what was expected; there are doubts about whether future growth is sustainable. The doubts lie in:

First, the hype is already approaching its peak, and the coming “ultra-high-speed” growth can’t be replicated.

Second, the secondary-market value attributes have been undermined, shaking the business model.

Third, there is uncertainty around the new growth points (new IP and overseas expansion).

In sum, the market still lacks value consensus about its “IP-centered commercial narrative.”

Actually, it’s not hard to see that the logic behind these assessments is largely based on the level of commodity retail: the belief is that 「it’s a consumer products company driven by hit products」, and that IP equals “design items” with strong ability to drive sales.

Sell more products (building top stars, expanding into multiple categories, and product innovation), sell into a wider market (global expansion). Once these stage-by-stage sources of growth narrow and slow down, it means the “bonus period is over,” and it may even face the end of growth.

But it’s that rich commercial construction based on IP that forms the foundation for its steady forward progress—cross-media, cross-category, cross-scenario entertainment-and-consumption experiences that wrap around a lifestyle. This commercial system is the more value-rich part. This is also the direction Pop Mart has been pushing.

Is it a consumer goods company with a strong cycle effect? Or is it a platform company that can operate IP for the long term? These two interpretations mean completely different things for the company’s valuation.

All one can say is that the market’s pace of shifting understanding can’t keep up with Pop Mart’s growth rate.

Returning to the earnings report itself, changes have already taken place. The top star LABUBU is very strong (14.16 billion yuan), but other IPs haven’t fallen behind either. Six IPs entered the 2-billion-yuan tier, and 17 IPs surpassed 100 million yuan.

Among them, Star Star’s revenue in 2025 surged from 120 million yuan to 2.06 billion yuan, up over 1600% year over year. SKULLPANDA grew 170% on a high base to 3.54 billion yuan. CRYBABY grew 151% year over year. HACIPUPU remains stable in eighth place, with growth of about 150% as well.

Although MOLLY’s proportion dropped significantly—falling from its position as the frontrunner—the actual revenue it generated also increased by 13%.

More importantly, the biggest change is in the way IP operations and development are carried out.

LABUBU has sharp fangs and a wild set of expressions. Many people think there’s a hint of a quirky contrast—lively, not trying to please, not compliant, not submissive. Once this kind of “not being constrained” is brought onto the NBA basketball court or the FIFA World Cup green pitch, it turns into “bursting with energy.”

Compared with LABUBU’s naturally social vibe, Star Star is an IP that naturally “has friends”—warm and healing. So it becomes a “friend” that stays active in the amusement park, interacting closely and intimately with everyone. It releases music singles, collaborates with Beast Kingdom, and writes down the romance and poetry of everyday life with a home-life atmosphere.

Xiao Ye has a melancholic temperament—introverted and with a mild sense of distance. It carries an illustration-based aesthetic. These “character concepts” determine his market route has a streak of an artistic, atmospheric vibe: art sculptures—from Anaya, to the Wuzhen Theatre Festival, and then to Zhoushan island scenery… The farther Xiao Ye is from noise and bustle, the more he can delve into the suppressed and sensitive inner worlds of modern people. He also has his own IP lifestyle brand—steel-and-concrete construction elements colliding with mountains-and-rural-wilderness elements—leaving an even stronger mark on the impression of his IP as “both bleak and cool.”

SKULLPANDA has a very distinctive artistic language. In its collaboration with XG, it fuses fashion imagery, making it even more Y3K and more avant-garde. Across series products, appearing on VOGUE, and themed exhibitions and displays, it continuously strengthens the expressive tension of its artistry—making the IP unforgettable at first glance.

This era isn’t only about good content coming from movies/anime.

Even a small number of golden-quote internet memes can hit emotions and spread virally; even rhythm snippets of just a dozen seconds can achieve exposure in the billions. Even a casual stroll can make someone remember it deeply.

In this era, “good content” is sometimes placed into scene spaces, sometimes reinforced through product design, and sometimes repeatedly reinterpreted through pictures, performances, music, and collaborations.

Compared with the traditional logic of amplification in anime and film, this path is more fragmented, but it also relies more on continuous operational capability. It doesn’t seek one-time massive amplification; instead, it allows users to keep “re-understanding” the IP through high frequency, coherence, and multiple touchpoints—thereby extending its lifespan.

Being able to sensitively capture emotional triggers and continuously build an emotional connection between IP and users—this flexible approach to operations is the market solution that fits this era (especially since the film market is currently seeing both quantity and quality decline).

No IP can always stay forever on the edge of market hype. But as long as its unique traits remain vivid, it can still firmly attract a certain group of people—and hold their obsession.

“Find your own way for the IP, your own rhythm” is the IP operating philosophy that Pop Mart follows.

The issue is that this capability is still in the stage of ongoing delivery and execution.

IP operating capability is still under market scrutiny; it lacks sufficient long-cycle testing to 「prove itself」.

Entertainment experiences, content, and consumer brand businesses are still being built; at present, they have not yet been reflected in cash flow returns in the financial report.

The park business continues to expand. In the summer of 2026, new areas are expected to open, and the Phase Two project is expected to start construction in 2027. At present, the proportion of non-local visitors is over half.

The dessert business will officially roll out to offline stores in the first half of this year. Before that, it had already launched pop-up shops in Thailand as well as in multiple locations across China.

For the accessory business, the popop brand already has two stores in Beijing and Shanghai.

For the home appliances business, it will be released in April, with the partner being JD.com.

According to a report by Huxiu, this business adopts an OEM contract manufacturing model, and products include electric kettles, coffee machines, electric toothbrushes, and more. Pop Mart handles master design and branding, while production is handed to established manufacturers.

At the end of the day, IP is the core. How to unleash the IP’s emotional and value-driven worth remains the central question.

The live-action animated movie for LABUBU (THE MONSTERS) has already been “greenlit.” The project’s partner is Sony Pictures. The director is Paul King, who directed Paddington and Wonka. If the movie is successful, it would be a super-level ignition point. (One market rumor is that COO Si De switched from overseas back home and personally took charge of this project.) In the second half of this year, it will also release “LABUBU 4.0” in the true sense and an artist collaboration series.

What I want to emphasize here is that the emotional valves still haven’t been opened. At least Pop Mart can still do better.

The market isn’t denying that the company got some things right—it’s just, for now, unwilling to pay a higher premium for a “possible future.”

What’s happening right now is a 「gear shift」 stage. Pop Mart is also proactively slowing down, setting next year’s growth guidance at 20% (below the level during the consumer recovery period; in 2023, year-on-year growth was 36%).

The company keeps adjusting its expectations management, both internally and externally, guarding against arrogance and maintaining composure. As Wang Ning put it, “It’s like F1. We hope 2026 is a year of going into the pit stop—add fuel, change tires. After ultra-high-speed development, we hope to take a little time to readjust.”

Can it create another miracle? The market has very high expectations.

However, instead of expecting miracles to fall from the sky, taking steady steps—action will be the strongest form of self-proof. The rest is for time to tell.

Produced by: Gen Z Studio