U.S. intelligence assessment: It is unlikely that the Strait of Hormuz will be "opened" in the short term

This article is reproduced from 【Xinhua News Agency】;

On April 4, Beijing, in a statement by Xinhua News Agency, U.S. intelligence agencies have recently assessed that Iran regards the Strait of Hormuz as an important “bargaining chip” to counter the United States, and is unlikely in the near term to ease its control over this energy shipping chokepoint.

The analysis suggests that the United States is currently mired in multiple predicaments: on the one hand, Iran, leveraging its unique geographic advantages, controls the Strait of Hormuz, making it difficult for the U.S. to “open up” the shipping lane through the use of force; on the other hand, Iran will continue to use the strait as a bargaining chip, leaving the U.S. with a difficult negotiation outlook.

Citing three people familiar with the matter who declined to be named, Reuters reported on the 3rd that Iran has “gotten a taste of success” from controlling the Strait of Hormuz, and therefore will not give up this approach anytime soon. These three sources refused to disclose which U.S. intelligence agency the above assessment conclusions came from.

Reuters’ analysis says that the intelligence indicates Iran may continue to influence global energy markets by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, in order to pressure the U.S. to end the war as quickly as possible. At present, the war’s spillover effects have already permeated multiple aspects of the U.S. domestic economy, people’s livelihoods, politics, and more, further worsening President Trump’s political liabilities.

The report says Iran may further strengthen its influence in the Middle East by tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz, undermining the U.S. side’s “wishful plan” to “eliminate Iran’s military forces.”

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a recent series of statements by Trump appear to contradict each other, highlighting the passive position of the U.S. According to reports, Trump sometimes claims that stopping Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz is a prerequisite for a ceasefire; at other times he says, “With time, U.S. forces will ‘open up’ the strait”; and at other times he urges those countries that need to obtain oil through shipping via the Strait of Hormuz to “take responsibility for maintaining this route themselves,” while encouraging them to go directly to the Strait of Hormuz to “seize the oil,” or to “buy oil from the United States.”

It is worth noting that on the 2nd, the U.S. NATO ally the United Kingdom held a meeting with dozens of countries such as France, Germany, and Italy to jointly explore ways to restore normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. was not invited to attend. On the 1st, Iran’s Supreme Leader’s office posted on social media extracts from the first speech of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, reaffirming that it will continue to use the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a countermeasure.

The Strait of Hormuz is arc-shaped, connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. At its narrowest point, it is only about 33 kilometers wide. At the narrowest part of the strait, each shipping lane is about 3 kilometers wide, with a buffer zone of the same width in between. In such narrow waters, whether civilian vessels or warships, they are easily targeted.

Ari Vaez, head of the Iran Project at the Belgian think tank International Crisis Group, said that by taking advantage of the Strait of Hormuz’s unique geographic conditions, Iran only needs to deploy a small number of unmanned drones to “prevent ships from passing.”

Some military experts analyze that even if the U.S. military controls Iran’s southern coastline and multiple nearby islands, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps can still launch unmanned drones or missiles from deep within Iran toward the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. military’s response time is limited, making it difficult to effectively retaliate.

In a podcast interview on the 2nd, Bill Burns, the former director of the Central Intelligence Agency, predicted that during future ceasefire negotiations between Iran and the U.S., Iran will “tighten” its grip on this “bargaining chip” — the Strait of Hormuz — to increase pressure on the U.S., in order to end the war as quickly as possible and secure Iran with “long-term deterrence capability and security guarantees.” (Wang Yijun)

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