April 7 Morning Market Analysis: After Iran rejected the 45-day ceasefire proposal, what will the market use to continue demonstrating resilience?

On the second trading day after tariffs were implemented, the crypto market remained steady despite Iran’s latest statement—showing a resilient rebound that did not slow down due to the “rejection of a temporary ceasefire.” After the Asian session opened, there was a slight pullback but quick stabilization, with leverage liquidation volume remaining low, and smart money clearly accumulating on dips. Last night’s news of Iran’s rejection of the 45-day proposal and insistence on a permanent ceasefire initially caused some emotional volatility, but the market proved with actual prices: geopolitical risks have been partially priced in, and the real variable is shifting from “proposal implementation” to “negotiation game after Trump’s final ultimatum.”

Early Morning Data (as of 02:05 UTC, April 7)
• BTC: $68,450 | 24h +1.2% (slightly retraced from last night’s high of $69,400 to build a base, quick rebound from the 67,800 low in the Asian session)
• ETH: $2,105 | 24h +2.1% (still stronger than BTC, maintaining relative strength)
• Global Market Cap: $2.38 trillion | +1.1% (continuing to recover from last night, volatility narrowed)
• Fear & Greed Index: 12 (Extreme Fear)🔴 (down slightly from 13 in 24h, still at historic lows, recovery momentum paused but not collapsed)

Market Reaction Interpretation
Last night, Iran’s official rejection of the 45-day ceasefire proposal, demanding a permanent end to the war and sanctions removal, caused oil prices to spike briefly to around $114 before retreating (WTI now at $112.6). Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz intensified again. However, the crypto market did not panic sell: BTC’s early low near 67,800 was strongly absorbed by funds, and leverage liquidation within 24 hours remained moderate (no large-scale liquidations), confirming the judgment that “tariffs + geopolitical risks are already fully priced in.” Institutional funds continued to buy on extreme fear, reaffirming BTC’s safe-haven attribute as “digital gold”—even with marginal geopolitical deterioration, prices can quickly stabilize, indicating that liquidity expectations post-tariffs are beginning to dominate.

The entire market recovered over 1% in 24 hours, with sentiment shifting from “bottoming in fear” to “rational waiting.” The combined strength of US stocks’ late session and Asian markets prevented the rebound from stalling, and under Iran’s rejection news, the market showed stronger resilience, suggesting it is already pricing in the potential negotiation window after Trump’s final ultimatum at 8 PM tonight.

Today’s True Variable Is Accelerating Its Shift
Iran’s rejection of the temporary ceasefire is a tough stance within expectations but does not completely close the door to negotiations (Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey are still mediating). Oil prices remain high, but actual shipping pressures have not further escalated. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut path still has uncertainties, and the liquidity restart window after tariffs is gradually opening. The real risk has shifted from “45-day proposal” to “negotiation outcome after Trump’s final ultimatum”—any signals of easing tonight (even if not a permanent ceasefire) will quickly cool geopolitical sentiment.

My Market Outlook (Updated Morning Version)
The tariff story has come to a complete close; geopolitical game and rate cut expectations remain the core themes for April, further validating resilience.
• BTC: $65,000–66,000 strong support tested again, currently holding above 68k, short-term resistance at 70k–72k remains.
• Target range: $78,000–$82,000, maintained, with the timeline possibly accelerated due to negotiation variables (if there’s substantive progress in Trump’s final ultimatum, the probability of mid-April acceleration increases).
• As long as there’s no substantial escalation in Iran’s situation (Strait of Hormuz not fully closed, Trump’s statements leaving room), the rebound slope will remain steep.

Summary in one sentence:
Yesterday’s rise was a shift in expectations; today’s support is the resilient bottom—Iran’s rejection of the proposal didn’t break the market, and the fear index at 12 remains at a historic bottom most prone to V-shaped reversals. While others focus on the ultimatum, you can already continue positioning for the main trend.

In the morning of April 7, the market once again answered with low dips and quick stabilization: geopolitical risks fluctuate, but liquidity expectations post-tariffs have become mainstream. Keep your positions unchanged and patiently await tonight’s key signals after Trump’s final ultimatum. Focus on oil price movements, Iran’s latest responses, and liquidity changes before the US stock market opens.