Semiconductor boom continues; will South Korea's export volume surpass Japan's for the first time in 2026?

Ask AI · How a Semiconductor Supercycle Is Driving South Korea’s Record Export Growth?

【Special Correspondent Li Ziyin for the Global Times in South Korea】Fueled by a “semiconductor supercycle,” South Korea’s export scale has continued to expand, and it is steadily closing in on Japan, which has long ranked first ahead of it. Data released by the South Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy on the 5th shows that in 2025, South Korea’s total annual exports reached $709.33 billion, surpassing the $700 billion mark for the first time and becoming the sixth country worldwide to break $700 billion in annual export volume, following the United States, Germany, China, Japan, and the Netherlands. At the same time, the export gap between South Korea and Japan has narrowed markedly. The data shows that after Japan’s export scale hit a peak of about $820 billion in 2011, it has generally shown a downward trend. In 2025, Japan’s export value was about $738.3 billion; the gap between the two sides has narrowed to roughly $29 billion, falling to the lowest level in history. Some industry voices believe that in 2026, South Korea’s total annual export scale may surpass Japan for the first time—“Japan’s high wall.”

On April 1, at Pyeongtaek Port in Gyeonggi Province, South Korea, a large number of shipping containers are stacked at the port. (Visual China)

An analysis by South Korea’s Asia Daily says that the “semiconductor supercycle,” which was launched in the second half of 2025 and has continued to this day, has provided clear support for South Korea’s exports. In January 2026, South Korea’s export value reached $65.85 billion, the first time ever that exports have exceeded $60 billion in January. In the same period, the World Trade Organization’s statistics show Japan’s export value at $58.63 billion. In March, South Korea’s export value rose to $86.13 billion, entering the $80 billion-per-month range for the first time.

Quarterly data further confirms this trend. In the first quarter of 2026, South Korea’s total exports reached $219.3 billion, setting a new historical high for quarterly scale. With semiconductor market conditions continuing to stay favorable, South Korea’s full-year exports are expected to exceed the government’s $740 billion target, and may even approach the $800 billion threshold.

Therefore, the South Korean business community is optimistic that 2026 will be a key turning point for a “historic reversal” in South Korea’s trade landscape, marking the first time South Korea has overtaken Japan in terms of export scale. From the perspective of industrial structure, South Korea’s export products are also more advantageous than Japan’s. Japan’s dependence on Middle East crude oil is more than 90%, higher than South Korea’s level of about 70%. Against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical conflicts, Japan faces greater cost pressure. At the same time, Japan’s “export pillar” automotive industry is being squeezed from both sides—weakening demand and high costs—amid a surge in international oil prices.

Japan’s latest trade data also shows pressure in its export markets. According to the Nikkei Asia, this year, in February, Japan’s exports to major trading partners declined. Exports to China, its largest trading partner, fell 10.9% year over year, while exports to the United States, its second-largest trading partner, fell 8% year over year. Among these, Japan’s total auto exports to the U.S. fell 14.8%. At the same time, influenced by tensions in the Middle East, the price of crude oil exported from Saudi Arabia to Japan rose by 80% year over year in March. Because Saudi crude oil accounts for more than half of Japan’s total crude oil imports, the surge in prices will further increase the burden on people’s daily lives and strain the country’s public finances.

However, South Korea’s exports also face multiple uncertainties. An official from South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said that the Middle East conflict has triggered supply-chain disruptions, and risks to South Korea’s foreign trade environment are also increasing. In addition, global economic slowdown risks may also weigh on South Korea’s exports.