Refined oil price adjustment window is approaching; filling up a tank may cost about 6.7 yuan more.

China Business Network (April 6) (Chen Junming) A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments is set to open at 24:00 on April 7. Institutions predict that the odds are high that prices will be raised in this round.

On the previous adjustment day for oil prices (March 23), the National Development and Reform Commission said that since the domestic refined oil price adjustments on March 9, the international crude oil market has seen a sharp increase in prices, driven by the intensification of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran as well as Israel. In particular, crude oil prices in the Middle East have reached record highs one after another. To mitigate the impact of the abnormal surge in international oil prices, ease the burden on downstream users, and ensure steady economic operations and improve people’s livelihoods, on the basis of maintaining the existing pricing mechanism framework, temporary control measures were adopted for domestic refined oil prices. After the controls, for private car owners, based on a 50–60 liter fuel tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline would cost about 40–50 yuan less.

A report from 隆众资讯 (Lonzong Information) shows that during this pricing adjustment cycle, international crude oil prices maintain an upward trend, and refined oil prices corresponding to it also show an upward tendency. As of April 2, the reference crude oil average price during the cycle was 109.06 U.S. dollars per barrel, up 2.24% from the previous cycle. It is expected that when the pricing window opens, the theoretical increase for corresponding refined oil prices will be around 130 yuan per ton, and the odds are high that this round will be a price increase.

金联创 (Jinlianchuang) said that in recent days, crude oil overall has shown a pattern of spiking up followed by a pullback, with weekly average prices rising month over month. Although high oil prices have begun to suppress some petroleum consumption, overall demand still exhibits strong resilience. It is expected that global crude oil demand will gradually rise to around 106 million barrels per day and remain at a high level. Because the decline in demand is limited and cannot fully offset the impact caused by supply contraction, the overall market is still in a tight balance, or even a shortage.

Lonzong Information predicts that according to China’s domestic refined oil pricing adjustment mechanism, on April 8, the corresponding refined oil price increase will be around 130 yuan per ton, which will mark the sixth increase this year. If prices are increased this time, using a 70-liter fuel tank as the basis, private car owners will pay about 6.7 yuan more to fill up a tank.

China Business Network has noticed that since the beginning of this year, domestic fuel prices have already undergone six rounds of adjustments, specifically “five increases and one pause.” Compared with the end of last year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices per ton have increased by 2,320 and 2,235 yuan respectively. If the price adjustment in this round rises as expected, China’s refined oil price adjustment pattern in 2026 will become “six increases and one pause.”

Under the “ten working days” principle, the next retail refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on April 21, 2026.

Looking ahead, Lonzong Information’s research report shows that the U.S. has said it will not get entangled with Iran for too long. In the future, the intensity of the conflict is expected to decline. The issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is also under negotiations among multiple countries. Combined with the recent high volatility in international oil prices, the probability of a decrease in the next refined oil price adjustment is expected to be relatively high.

Jinlianchuang believes that regarding the matter of a ceasefire, the various diplomatic signals released by the U.S. and Iran are ambiguous, so uncertainty remains regarding the Middle East geopolitical situation and shipping. If the U.S. ends the war with Iran in the short term, oil prices will accelerate downward; otherwise, they will continue to rise.

A research report from 卓创资讯 (Zhuochuang Information) states that at present, the core disagreements between the U.S. and Iran are difficult to reconcile, and the fighting has fallen into a stalemate. The navigation efficiency through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a sustained low level, and there have been no clear signals of mitigation in geopolitical risk. Against this backdrop, international oil prices may continue to trade at a high level with wide-ranging fluctuations, and extreme price swings that could be triggered by the war escalating beyond expectations are something that should be closely watched. Entering May to June, geopolitical events may gradually subside, market risk-averse sentiment may cool, and crude oil prices are expected to gradually retreat from the high-price range. It is expected that over the next three months, the average monthly prices of U.S. crude oil will be, in sequence, 94.69 U.S. dollars per barrel, 86.37 U.S. dollars per barrel, and 72.51 U.S. dollars per barrel, showing an overall stepped downward trend. (China Business Network APP)

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            Oil price