Trading activity declines, Wind All A Index valuation slightly decreases | Sentiment and Valuation April Issue 1

(Source: Yi Guan the Big Picture)

Author: Fang Yi / Li Jian

Key takeaway: Last week (2026/3/30-2026/4/3) trading activity declined, and the valuation of the CSI 300 was flat. Broad-market indices: valuations continued to fall, while the CSI 300 valuation remained unchanged. Industry indices: PE valuation declined more than it rose, and the PB valuation was led by the real estate sector. Sentiment: trading activity declined across the board, turnover ratios declined across the board, and trading value declined across the board. ERP: up on a month-over-month basis.

Summary

▶ Index valuation: Valuations continued to decline, with the ChiNext Index leading the drop. Broad-market indices: valuations continued to decrease, and the CSI 300 valuation remained flat. PE-TTM historical percentile: all indices fell across the board, with the ChiNext Index having the largest decline, down 5.0 percentage points. PB-LF historical percentile: all indices declined across the board, with the ChiNext Index leading the drop, down 5.4 percentage points. Style indices: valuations fell more than they rose. Consumer led. PE-TTM historical percentile: all styles fell more than they rose, with the consumer sector leading, up 7.9 percentage points. PB-LF historical percentile: all styles fell more than they rose, with the consumer sector leading, up 0.3 percentage points.

▶ Industry valuation: PE valuations declined more than they rose. Industry PE: valuations declined more than they rose, with pharma leading. PE-TTM historical percentile: industry valuations declined more than they rose across the board, with pharma leading by 6.2 percentage points. PE-G comparison: power equipment and new energy offer better value for money. Industry PB: valuations declined more than they rose, with real estate leading. PB-LF historical percentile: industry valuations declined more than they rose across the board, with real estate leading by 0.3 percentage points. PB-ROE comparison: banks offer better value for money.

▶ Sentiment: Trading activity fell across the board, turnover ratios fell across the board, and trading value fell across the board. Turnover ratio: index turnover ratios fell across the board, with Wande All A having the smallest decline, down 8.6%. Trading value: all indices declined across the board, with Wande All A having the smallest decline, down 10.2%. Margin financing and securities lending balances: as of 2026/4/2, the weekly average margin financing and securities lending balances were 2.61 trillion yuan, down 0.26% compared with the week before last. Proportion of financing purchases: as of 2026/4/2, the weekly average financing purchase amount as a percentage of A-share trading value was 9.00%, up 0.10% month-over-month compared with the previous week’s weekly average data.

▶ ERP: Up slightly on a month-over-month basis. Wan de All A risk premium was 4.15%, up 0.02 percentage points from 2026/3/27. Note: Valuation changes in the text are compared as of 2026/4/3 versus 2026/3/27; turnover ratio and trading value changes compare the averages of last week (2026/3/30-2026/4/3) versus the averages of the week before last (2026/3/23-2026/3/27); margin financing changes compare the averages of last week (2026/3/30-2026/4/2) versus the averages of the week before last (2026/3/23-2026/3/26).

▶ Risk warning: Overseas economic uncertainty remains high. Global geopolitical uncertainty.

Risk warning

Overseas economic uncertainty remains high. Uncertainty about the U.S. domestic economy and policies may disrupt global risk assets.

Global geopolitical uncertainty. Great-power competition has entered a deep-water phase; the direction and intensity of geopolitical conflicts in some regions are difficult to judge accurately, and sudden events may impact the market.

Disclaimer

Caitong Haitong Strategy Team