Gold Market Daily: April 2nd Gold Market Analysis and Trading Strategies

As of 11:48 so far in the Asia session today (April 2), gold prices are showing a pattern of surging higher then falling back. Spot gold once broke above 4800 USD per ounce, rising to 4800.46 USD and hitting a new high since March 19. Spot gold then slipped below 4700 USD per ounce. In the short term, price movements have been extremely volatile, falling more than 150 USD from the high point.

【Yesterday’s Gold Recap】
Yesterday (4.1), gold opened at 4671.42 USD, with a high of 4793.13 USD and a low of 4661.6 USD. It closed at 4757.92 USD. It printed a bullish candle with a rise of 1.89%. This was the fourth consecutive trading day of gains. During the day, it saw mild consolidation and pullback; in the evening, the bulls exerted strong momentum, driving a sharp rally. The price of gold stabilized and recovered while holding to the 5-day moving average.
The reasons for the rise are very simple: first, the weak dollar supports gold prices; second, Trump stated that the U.S. may end its military actions against Iran within two to three weeks, and expectations of easing in the Middle East boosted risk appetite; third, interest-rate cut expectations have been partially restored, and the market has started to reprice the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
The reasons for the decline—we also mentioned this last night—are as follows: in terms of technicals, the market is overbought, so be cautious about a pullback. After the prior aggressive surge, technical indicators on the 4-hour timeframe have already entered an extremely overbought zone, which may limit further upside. After consecutive gains, a large amount of profit-taking has accumulated, leading to a short-term technical pullback or sideways consolidation. Around the 4800 integer level, there is strong resistance, and in the near term, technical indicators are overbought—so a push higher followed by a pullback is a viable scenario to watch for.

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As long as you wait patiently, you can almost always catch a big chunk of the move. The market is something you wait for, and trading is done one trade at a time. Focusing seriously on each trade is the greatest respect you can show yourself.
【Today’s Trading Outlook】
Key resistance and support levels today
Resistance above: 4800 USD
Support below: 4650-4600 USD
From the technical pattern—
Daily (1D) chart: Gold is stabilizing and recovering while holding the 5-day moving average. The MACD green histogram is shortening with signs of turning. Bearish momentum has weakened, but it has not completely reversed
4H chart: The Bollinger Bands opening is narrowing. Gold is consolidating along the middle band, showing a “strong support, weak breakout” stance
1H chart: Price action is relatively weak. Gold has broken below short-term moving average support. The MACD red histogram continues shrinking, and short-term pullback pressure is emerging

Today’s trade idea: Considering the early-session spike and pullback, resistance at the 4800 USD level, and uncertainty from Trump’s remarks tonight, it is recommended to adopt a range-trading approach, manage position sizing, and use strict stop-losses.
Go long: Buy near 4650, stop loss 4630, target 4700-4750 USD.

Go short: Sell near 4800, stop loss 4820, target 4700-4680 USD.

Key events to watch

1. Tonight’s Trump national address (Thursday evening, Beijing time)
2. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data (to be released tonight)
3. Outlook for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls employment report

Personal views are for reference only; risk is your own. Feel free to exchange ideas. Q:3145477136

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